New method produces coherent forecasts for long-range data.
problem Inaccurate and non-coherent forecasts on long-horizon data.
method Probabilistic forecasting with KL-divergence for coherent aggregates.
result Improves forecast performance across base levels and aggregates.
CoRe method improves time series forecasting coherency without strict constraints.
problem Noisy hierarchical time series data that doesn't perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints.
method Coherency Regularization using neural networks.
result Improved forecast accuracy and coherence, especially in noisy data scenarios.
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
problem Probabilistic coherent forecasting of time series data across different levels of aggregation.
method Proposes a coherent multivariate mixture output for neural forecasting architectures, optimizing with a composite likelihood objective.
result 13.2% average accuracy improvements on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
Paper introduces DCoVaR for aggregate risk models, outperforming existing methods.
problem Lack of coherent risk measures for aggregate risk models.
method Proposes Dependent Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCoVaR) for a target loss dependent on another random loss.
result DCoVaR outperforms MCoVaR and CCoVaR in numerical simulations and empirical studies.
HierarchicalForecast provides a Python framework for coherent hierarchical forecasting.
problem Ensuring forecasts at disaggregate levels add up to aggregate forecasts.
method Preprocessed datasets, evaluation metrics, and statistical baseline models.
result Python-based reference framework for statistical and ML forecasting.
In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on RLp, the space of càdlàg processes having Laplace transform. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive Lévy process. Moreover, w…
This work analyzes two methods for combining multiple binary labels in bipartite ranking.
problem Combining multiple binary labels for optimal bipartite ranking.
method Loss aggregation vs. label aggregation approaches.
result Label aggregation is preferable to loss aggregation due to label dictatorship issues.
Paper introduces REED for noncoherent OTA-FL, reducing latency without phase alignment.
problem Noncoherent OTA-FL requires signed model updates without phase alignment.
method Introduces REED for continuous signed aggregation using resource-element energy difference.
result Exact variance laws for REED and chip-diverse extension in Rayleigh fading.
Solvency II Directive 2009/138/EC requires an insurance and reinsurance undertakings assessment of a Solvency Capital Requirement by means of the so-called "Standard Formula" or by means of partial or full internal models. Focusing on the first approach, the bottom-up aggregation formula proposed by the regulator permi…
BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.
problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.
This paper challenges the current metrics used for evaluating long-term forecasting models.
problem Current metrics focus on pointwise error reduction, ignoring structural properties.
method Proposes a multi-dimensional evaluation approach that includes statistical fidelity, structural coherence, and decision-level relevance.
result Current progress in forecasting may reflect specialization in benchmark configurations rather than deeper understanding of temporal dynamics.
Efficiently simulates risk budgeting portfolios using novel algorithms.
problem Estimating risk contributions in portfolios efficiently.
method Cutting planes algorithm, specialised SGD for Expected Shortfall, numerical simulations.
result Outperforms standard convex optimisation solvers in estimating risk budgeting portfolios.
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
problem Risk measures and optimal reserve allocation across multiple lines of business.
method Formalizes expected maximum deficit, introduces implicitly bounded risk measures, and proposes capital allocation approaches.
result Theoretical results on static and dynamic coherence, convexity, and exact optimizations of aggregate minimum reserves.
Paper characterizes star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
problem Characterizing risk measures in the presence of liquidity risk and competitive delegation.
method Characterization of star-shaped risk measures, study of their properties.
result Star-shaped risk measures include all practically used risk measures.
Meta-analysis improves personalized treatment rules across multiple sites.
problem Lack of generalizability in learning individualized treatment rules across different medical sites.
method Developed a method for individual-level meta-analysis of ITRs, borrowing sign-coherency information between sites.
result Jointly learned site-specific ITRs with improved generalizability.
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
New model improves multimodal autoencoders by learning joint and conditional distributions.
problem Limitations in recent multimodal autoencoders restrict their quality on complex datasets.
method Proposes a multistage training process with variational inference and Normalizing Flows, leveraging shared modality information.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets.
Recent dialogue approaches operate by reading each word in a conversation history, and aggregating accrued dialogue information into a single state. This fixed-size vector is not expandable and must maintain a consistent format over time. Other recent approaches exploit an attention mechanism to extract useful informat…
This paper extends compositional data analysis using graph signal processing.
problem Traditional log-ratios between all variables are not suitable for specific variable relationships.
method Linking compositional data analysis with graph signal processing, it considers only selected log-ratios.
result The approach retains desirable properties of scale invariance and compositional coherence.
Develops risk-averse fair multi-class classification methods.
problem Noisy, scarce, unreliable data in multi-class classification problems.
method Systemic risk models and risk-averse regularized decomposition method.
result Enforces fairness and improves performance with unreliable data.
M4L-JMF tackles multi-typed objects learning, improving on M3L.
problem Learning from multi-typed objects with diverse features and labels.
method Joint matrix factorization to encode and factorize multi-typed bags and their instances.
result M4L-JMF outperforms existing methods on benchmark datasets.
Non-negative tensor factorization models enable predictive analysis on count data. Among them, Bayesian Poisson-Gamma models can derive full posterior distributions of latent factors and are less sensitive to sparse count data. However, current inference methods for these Bayesian models adopt restricted update rules f…
A note on learning with agents having global perspectives and a principal optimizing their performance.
problem Learning with dynamic-optimizing principal-agent setting, where agents have global views and the principal optimizes performance.
method Empirical-likelihood estimator under conditional moment restrictions model, considering agents' out-of-sample and private dataset performances.
result A coherent mathematical argument for the learning process in this framework.
Defines coherent manifolds and their quantum applications.
problem Understanding quantum spaces and coherent states.
method Generalizes quantum field theory and Schrödinger equation solutions.
result Solves Schrödinger equation on coherent manifolds.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex financial time series with high-dimensional data.
method Integrates machine learning with econometric diagnostics in a refined convolutional--transformer architecture.
result Unified anomaly score without labeled data, robust to structured deviations.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
A new method detects anomalies in trajectory data using normalizing flows.
problem Detecting anomalous patterns in high-dimensional, varying-length spatial data.
method Probability density estimation via normalizing flows for each trajectory segment, aggregating likelihoods.
result The proposed method, GRADINGS, effectively identifies anomalies in real-world trajectory data.
Coherent Multiplex analyzes real-time wavelet coherence among multiple signals.
problem Identifying and visualizing coherence among multiple time series.
method Fast spectral similarity based on cosine similarity metrics of Fourier-transformed signals and sparse time-frequency wavelet coherence.
result Scalable real-time system for low-latency inference and monitoring of inter-signal relationships.
The transition amplitudes between coherent states on a coherent state manifold are expressed in terms of the embedding of the coherent state manifold into a projective Hilbert space. Consequences for the dimension of projective Hilbert space and a simple geometric interpretation of Calabi's diastasis follows.
We use mathematical induction to prove that the horizontal composition in the class of coherently diagonal complexes is indeed a binary operation. That is to say, the embedding of two coherently diagonal complexes in an alternating planar diagram produces a coherently diagonal complex.
Paper constructs Chern character for coherent sheaves.
problem Chern character for coherent sheaves with values in Bott-Chern cohomology.
method Based on Block's fundamental construction, constructs Chern character.
result Proves Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck formula for coherent sheaves.
The paper constructs minimal coherent filling pairs on surfaces.
problem Finding minimal intersecting coherent filling pairs on surfaces.
method Geometric procedure starting from a torus filling pair.
result Construction of minimal intersecting coherent filling pairs on Sg for g≥3. Sparse coding in learned dictionaries has been established as a successful approach for signal denoising, source separation and solving inverse problems in general. A dictionary learning method adapts an initial dictionary to a particular signal class by iteratively computing an approximate factorization of a training …
Paper defines dynamical coherence for flows and proves it under specific conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of partially hyperbolic flows.
method Introduces dynamical coherence and proves it for flows with a specific foliation.
result Dynamical coherence proved for flows with a particular foliation.
Develops equivariant Chern characters for coherent sheaves with group actions.
problem Computing Chern characters for coherent sheaves on manifolds with group actions.
method Introduces equivariant Chern characters and proves Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem in Bott-Chern cohomology.
result Establishes a Riemann-Roch-Grothendieck theorem for coherent sheaves with finite group actions.
New metric m-coherence measures gradient alignment during training, revealing surprising memorization patterns.
problem Measuring and understanding the alignment of per-example gradients during training.
method Introducing m-coherence as a metric to study gradient alignment, showing its advantages over existing metrics. result Training with random labels leads to high m-coherence, indicating common patterns even when generalization is not possible. We present a method for identifying the coherent structures associated with individual Lagrangian flow trajectories even where only sparse particle trajectory data is available. The method, based on techniques in spectral graph theory, uses the Coherent Structure Coloring vector and associated eigenvectors to analyze t…
We study a space of coherent risk measures M_phi obtained as certain expansions of coherent elementary basis measures. In this space, the concept of ``Risk Aversion Function'' phi naturally arises as the spectral representation of each risk measure in a space of functions of confidence level probabilities. We give nece…
Extends coherence results to one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
problem Coherence in one-relator products of locally indicable groups.
method Developed new methods to extend results of Helfer, Wise, Louder, Wilton, and Brodsky.
result New proof of a theorem by Brodsky.
Generates coherent storybooks from plain text using diffusion models.
problem Ensuring coherency in a sequence of images for storytelling applications.
method Combines pre-trained LLM and text-guided Latent Diffusion Model for zero-shot generation.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art image editing baselines in generating coherent storybooks.
Low-rank matrix approximations are often used to help scale standard machine learning algorithms to large-scale problems. Recently, matrix coherence has been used to characterize the ability to extract global information from a subset of matrix entries in the context of these low-rank approximations and other sampling-…
A realization of coherent state Lie algebras by first-order differential operators with holomorphic polynomial coefficients on Kähler coherent state orbits is presented. Explicit formulas involving the Bernoulli numbers and the structure constants for the semisimple Lie groups are proved.
Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.
problem Estimating coherent risk measures in financial contexts.
method Non-standard analysis, hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, plug-in asymptotics.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral plug-in estimators.
We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which enables one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing. The main idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling these parts to different agents. The technique is closely connected with the convolution of coh…
The coherent states are viewed as a powerful tool in differential geometry. It is shown that some objects in differential geometry can be expressed using quantities which appear in the construction of the coherent states. The following subjects are discussed via the coherent states: the geodesics, the conjugate locus a…
Paper improves video categorization using temporal coherence.
problem Video categorization in multiple modalities.
method Temporal coherence-based regularization for multimodal models.
result Models with temporal coherence outperform state-of-the-art.
CNNs improve InSAR coherence classification.
problem Improving demarcation of InSAR imagery regions based on coherence.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for preprocessing and classification.
result CNNs reduce misclassifications in incoherent regions and outperform established methods.
We emphasize some properties of coherent state groups, i.e. groups whose quotient with the stationary groups, are manifolds which admit a holomorphic embedding in a projective Hilbert space. We determine the differential action of the generators of the representation of coherent state groups on the symmetric Fock space…