New framework bridges climate science and ML for easier climate model emulation.
problem High computational costs and mistrust of ML methods in climate models.
method Integrating climate science and machine learning perspectives to design easy-to-adopt emulators.
result Demonstrated reliability of emulators designed to address specific tasks.
EcoCast predicts biodiversity risks using satellite data and citizen science records.
problem Unprecedented shifts in species distributions due to climate change and habitat loss.
method Spatio-temporal model using sequence-based transformers and continual learning.
result Promising improvements in forecasting bird species distributions compared to Random Forest.
AI boosts study of rare weather extremes with lower costs.
problem Difficulty in studying rare weather events due to limited data and models.
method Coupling AI forecasts with physics models using rare-event algorithms.
result Efficiently characterizes very rare events like once-per-millennium heatwaves.
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
problem Understanding multistability and transitions in climate models.
method Combination of quasipotential theory and manifold learning.
result Discovery of a third stable climate state not previously known.
New method shows data-driven causal studies can be misleading.
problem Misattribution of causality in data-driven earth science studies.
method Subsample-based ensemble approach for robust causality analysis.
result Transfer entropy-based causal graphs can be spurious.
NESYM combines AI and Earth models for new climate insights.
problem Replacing traditional Earth models with AI.
method Neural Earth System Modelling (NESYM) integrating AI and climate models.
result Artificial intelligence may render traditional models obsolete.
This paper analyzes machine learning workflows in climate modeling.
problem Challenges in integrating machine learning with climate modeling.
method Analysis of case studies focusing on design patterns and workflow structure.
result Synthesis of workflow design patterns across diverse projects in ML-enabled climate modeling.
New method improves local precipitation predictions using video diffusion.
problem Limited high-resolution local precipitation predictions due to computational costs.
method Extends video diffusion models to capture conditional distribution of high-resolution patterns.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in CRPS, MSE, and precipitation distribution.
Statistical analysis reveals pitfalls in climate network construction.
problem Uncertainty in correlation estimates affects network characteristics.
method Simulated isotropic random fields and resampling procedures.
result Spurious link bundles and high-degree clusters are common.
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or predict the current economic crisis, which is of financial nature. Meanwhi…
Develops scalable methods to assess sensitivity and uncertainty in continuous treatment effects.
problem Estimating effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data, especially when ignorability and positivity assumptions are violated.
method Continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM), scalable algorithm, uncertainty-aware deep models.
result Derives bounds that agree with observed data and a defined level of hidden confounding.
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. Insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequ…
Data science models, although successful in a number of commercial domains, have had limited applicability in scientific problems involving complex physical phenomena. Theory-guided data science (TGDS) is an emerging paradigm that aims to leverage the wealth of scientific knowledge for improving the effectiveness of da…
ClimAlign uses deep learning for unsupervised climate downscaling.
problem Downscaling climate variables from coarse to fine scales.
method Unsupervised statistical downscaling using normalizing flows.
result ClimAlign achieves comparable predictive performance to supervised methods.
Time-series data is being increasingly collected and stud- ied in several areas such as neuroscience, climate science, transportation, and social media. Discovery of complex patterns of relationships between individual time-series, using data-driven approaches can improve our understanding of real-world systems. While …
As global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a form of solar geoengineering, is increasingly considered in order to artificially mitigate climate change effects. However, initial research in simulation suggests that naive SAI can have catastrophic regional conse…
A framework uses deep learning for spatio-temporal data prediction.
problem Interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields on irregular points.
method Decomposes spatio-temporal processes into products of basis functions and spatial coefficients.
result Effectiveness in reconstructing coherent spatio-temporal fields.
One of the most pressing questions in climate science is that of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance. Aerosols provide the `seeds' on which cloud droplets form, and changes in the amount of aerosol available to a cloud can change its brightness and other physical properties such as optical…
We use diffusion models to sample from complex GP priors in climate data.
problem Sampling from non-stationary Gaussian process priors is computationally hard.
method Replace GP prior with a diffusion model surrogate and use training-free guidance algorithms.
result Generated distributions are close to GP priors and can be fine-tuned.
Combines causal learning with dynamical systems for practical model identification.
problem Lack of practical, identifiable models for causal inference in dynamical systems.
method Draws connection between causal representation learning and dynamical systems, applying identifiable methods to scalable differentiable solvers.
result Learned explicitly controllable models for trajectory-specific parameters.
Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a sco…
TelePiT improves S2S forecasting by integrating physics and teleconnections.
problem Challenges in subseasonal-to-seasonal climate forecasting due to chaotic dynamics and complex interactions.
method Integrates physics and teleconnections into a transformer architecture with spherical embedding and multi-scale physics-informed neural ODE.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods across all forecast horizons.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Paper presents a workflow for reliable unsupervised learning in science.
problem Lack of standardization in unsupervised learning workflows for reproducible scientific discoveries.
method Structured workflow including data preparation, modeling, validation, and communication.
result Illustrates the importance of validation in unsupervised learning.
GOAL algorithm reduces and rotates feature space for small data classification.
problem Challenges in identifying important features for classification in small data settings.
method GOAL algorithm reduces and rotates feature space in a lower-dimensional gauge, providing an analytically tractable solution.
result GOAL algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art ML tools in synthetic and real-world applications.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
Proposes a new stochastic method to calibrate climate risks in financial models.
problem Estimating climate-related financial risks in bank loan portfolios.
method Stochastic forward-looking methodology to calibrate climate macro-correlation evolution from scientific data.
result A new framework to evaluate climate risks without specific scenario assumptions.
Traditional approaches focus on finding relationships between two entire time series, however, many interesting relationships exist in small sub-intervals of time and remain feeble during other sub-intervals. We define the notion of a sub-interval relationship (SIR) to capture such interactions that are prominent only …
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
problem Uncertainty in future climate scenarios makes proactive adaptation less feasible.
method Underwrite climate adaptation projects with repayment based on future climate scenarios.
result Optimal financing reduces over- and under-preparation risks.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Method reconstructs glacier front trajectories from record moraine data.
problem Understanding past glacier dynamics from limited record data.
method Stochastic generator based on Brownian motion and NBI hyper parameter tuning.
result Reconstructed glacier front trajectories from moraine records.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
ESN model helps understand climate event impacts.
problem Understanding complex climate event impacts.
method Feature importance methods for ESNs on spatio-temporal climate data.
result Characterized relationships between Mount Pinatubo eruption variables.
The study examines how climate risk influences sovereign debt default decisions.
problem The relationship between climate risk and sovereign debt default decisions.
method Calibration of a model to analyze the credit spreads of sovereign bonds and the impact of climate vulnerability on bond spreads.
result Climate risk does not significantly influence the decision to default on sovereign debt.
Future projection of climate is typically obtained by combining outputs from multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) for several climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. While IPCC has traditionally used a simple model output average, recent work has illustrated potential advantages of using a multitask lea…
Study uses TV news to measure climate risks affecting clean energy firms.
problem Understanding how climate risks impact clean energy firms' financial stability.
method Developed climate risk measures from TV news coverage and analyzed their effects on clean energy firms' risks.
result Increased TV news coverage of climate risks correlates with higher systematic risk and lower idiosyncratic risk for clean energy firms.
CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
problem Climate change impacts on financial valuation are currently ignored.
method Flexible parameterization to capture climate impacts on hazard rates.
result Significant impacts on interest rate swaps even with slow climate change.
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
problem Estimating climate risks in bank credit portfolios.
method Adapts credit risk models to include physical and transition risks.
result Calculates incremental credit losses due to climate risks.
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
problem Climate-related risks affecting asset performance and productivity.
method Uses the Vasicek model with downward jumps to represent climate impacts on asset dynamics.
result Expected losses increase over time due to climate-related extreme events.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
problem Impact of climate change expectations on fossil fuel markets and prices.
method Dynamic, general equilibrium model of climate-change-linked transition risk.
result Climate change expectations can lead to either increased or decreased fossil fuel prices, depending on economic responses.
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
problem Predict climate variables at distant locations where comprehensive data collection is not feasible.
method Uses reservoir computing and vector autoregression models for prediction.
result Machine learning improves prediction accuracy for highly correlated data.
Generative model emulates climate model for 100-year forecasts.
problem Challenges in accurately simulating long-term climate data.
method Integrates DYffusion with SFNO for stable, accurate climate simulations.
result Achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation.
SPF uses a hierarchical approach to efficiently emulate climate changes.
problem Slow and unstable climate emulation for long horizons.
method Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF) model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales.
result SPF outperforms flow matching baselines and pre-trained models on ClimateBench.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.