Bayesian inference improved with classifier-based misspecification detection and tempering.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian inference leads to overly concentrated posteriors.
method Probabilistic classifiers trained on simulated vs. observed data to estimate model misspecification and tempering level.
result Estimation of negative KL divergence provides useful diagnostic and update method.
Detecting early signs of failures (anomalies) in complex systems is one of the main goal of preventive maintenance. It allows in particular to avoid actual failures by (re)scheduling maintenance operations in a way that optimizes maintenance costs. Aircraft engine health monitoring is one representative example of a fi…
Adaptive stopping in MCMC using classifier-based dynamics
problem Sampling from complex, unnormalized probability densities
method Training state-dependent neural classifiers
result Significant reduction in average trajectory lengths
Convolutional neural networks improve image classification accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in image classification.
method Analyzing the convergence rate of misclassification risk for image classifiers.
result A rate of convergence independent of image dimension proves the effectiveness of CNNs.
Topological data analysis aims to extract topological quantities from data, which tend to focus on the broader global structure of the data rather than local information. The Mapper method, specifically, generalizes clustering methods to identify significant global mathematical structures, which are out of reach of man…
Deep learning classifiers are known to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. A recent paper presented at ICML 2019 proposed a statistical test detection method based on the observation that logits of noisy adversarial examples are biased toward the true class. The method is evaluated on CIFAR-10 dataset and is shown t…
Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus…
Fault detection problem for closed loop uncertain dynamical systems, is investigated in this paper, using different deep learning based methods. Traditional classifier based method does not perform well, because of the inherent difficulty of detecting system level faults for closed loop dynamical system. Specifically, …
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
problem Identifying influential datapoints or subsets in machine learning models.
method Finite-sample statistical bounds and computational complexity for influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations.
result Established statistical and computational guarantees for influence diagnostics.
The article explains how to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers using unlabeled data.
problem Estimating sensitivity and specificity of binary medical diagnostic tests without gold standard tests.
method Modifying diagnostic test solutions to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers on unlabeled data.
result The approach can be used to estimate accuracy statistics for supervised or unsupervised binary classifiers on unlabeled data.
AI enhances cancer diagnostics using spectroscopy.
problem Early and accurate cancer diagnosis.
method Combining AI with spectroscopy-based techniques.
result AI improves cancer diagnostics speed and safety.
An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully acknowledged through the posterior predictive distribution. Several such rules have b…
Paper introduces a diagnostic for approximate inference methods.
problem Estimating errors in probabilistic inference algorithms, especially for approximate methods.
method Repeatedly simulate datasets from the prior and perform inference on each, estimating a symmetric KL-divergence.
result A diagnostic for approximate inference methods can be estimated using symmetric KL-divergence.
Machine learning improves diagnostic test accuracy for bovine tuberculosis.
problem Improving diagnostic test sensitivity for bovine tuberculosis.
method Machine learning to assess risk landscapes and predict infection.
result Test sensitivity improved, detecting 240 more infected herds per year.
AI predicts medical specialty diagnostic choices from EHR records.
problem Predicting timely medical specialty diagnostic workups for patients.
method Ensemble of feed-forward neural networks trained on EHR data.
result Significantly higher accuracy compared to traditional checklists.
We propose a new formulation of Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL). In typical MIL settings, a unit of data is given as a set of instances called a bag and the goal is to find a good classifier of bags based on similarity from a single or finitely many "shapelets" (or patterns), where the similarity of the bag from a sha…
This thesis explores supervised classification methods using Bayesian and exchangeability theories.
problem Assigning objects into predefined classes using training data and auxiliary information.
method Bayesian inductive theories and exchangeabilities (de Finetti and partition exchangeability).
result Optimal classifiers for different scenarios of object features and categories.
Graph-based approach repairs programs from diagnostic feedback.
problem Learning to repair programs from limited labeled data and compiler error messages.
method Introduces program-feedback graph and graph neural network for reasoning, and self-supervised learning with unlabeled programs.
result DrRepair significantly outperforms prior work, achieving high repair rates.
The paper analyzes convergence in SGD with momentum and proposes a diagnostic test.
problem Detecting convergence in stochastic gradient descent with momentum.
method Analyzes the transient and stationary phases of SGD with momentum, constructs a statistical diagnostic test.
result The proposed diagnostic test effectively detects convergence in the stationary phase of SGD with momentum.
The nearest-centroid classifier is a simple linear-time classifier based on computing the centroids of the data classes in the training phase, and then assigning a new datum to the class corresponding to its nearest centroid. Thanks to its very low computational cost, the nearest-centroid classifier is still widely use…
Paper proposes a coupling-based diagnostic for SGD stepsize optimization.
problem Optimizing stepsize for SGD convergence.
method Coupling-based convergence diagnostic for monitoring stationarity.
result Proposed stepsize scheme achieves superior performance across convex and non-convex problems.
Paper improves predictive distributions for rare events using a simple framework.
problem Local miscalibration of predictive distributions for rare events.
method Semiparametric diagnostic transport maps to correct tail probabilities.
result Semiparametric maps improve predictions for severe weather hazards.
TADDAA improves accuracy diagnostics for variational approximations.
problem Challenges in evaluating the accuracy of variational approximations.
method Uses many short parallel MCMC chains to obtain lower bounds on the error of each posterior functional of interest.
result Validates the practical utility and computational efficiency of TADDAA on various models.
Proposes a diagnostic method to evaluate factor models using cap-axis integrals.
problem Improving factor model evaluation in low-dimensional spaces.
method Lifts pricing errors into a bridge-alpha curve along the market-capitalization rank axis.
result The cap-axis norm is distinct from Sharpe gain and size exposure.
Proposes a diagnostic method to evaluate factor models using cap-axis integrals.
problem Improving factor model evaluation for low-dimensional models.
method Lifts pricing errors into a bridge-alpha curve along the market-capitalization rank axis.
result The cap-axis norm is distinct from Sharpe gain and size exposure.
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is continuous and there is no confirmative threshold, ROC curve becomes less useful…
Neyman-Pearson testing improves goodness of fit in detecting new physics.
problem Detecting small anomalies in data distributions.
method Employing Neyman-Pearson strategy with a rich parametrized family of models.
result Neyman-Pearson testing is more sensitive to small departures and unbiased towards specific anomalies.
Defines explanations for classifier outcomes using causal concepts.
problem Understanding classifier outcomes in a causal context.
method Proposes a new definition of explanation based on causality, compares it with existing notions, and evaluates it experimentally.
result Experimental evaluation shows the new definition's effectiveness on financial datasets.
Language models fail to process hallucinated responses, and this study diagnoses the failure.
problem Language models fail to process hallucinated responses, leading to over-concentration or diffuse attention.
method The study uses forced scoring of benchmark-labeled responses to compute attention shapes and analyze the symmetric component of the degree-normalized attention operator.
result The study proves that every transpose-invariant spectral diagnostic of the attention operator is orientation-blind and bounds the sensitivity of any Lipschitz diagnostic by the asymmetry coefficient \(G\).
The high-dimensionality and volume of large scale multistream data has inhibited significant research progress in developing an integrated monitoring and diagnostics (M&D) approach. This data, also categorized as big data, is becoming common in manufacturing plants. In this paper, we propose an integrated M\&D approach…
Recent studies have shown promising results in using Deep Learning to detect malignancy in whole slide imaging. However, they were limited to just predicting positive or negative finding for a specific neoplasm. We attempted to use Deep Learning with a convolutional neural network algorithm to build a lymphoma diagnost…
In this paper, we present an algorithm for minimizing the difference between two submodular functions using a variational framework which is based on (an extension of) the concave-convex procedure [17]. Because several commonly used metrics in machine learning, like mutual information and conditional mutual information…
Interpretable deep learning is a fundamental building block towards safer AI, especially when the deployment possibilities of deep learning-based computer-aided medical diagnostic systems are so eminent. However, without a computational formulation of black-box interpretation, general interpretability research rely hea…
Online symptom checkers have significant potential to improve patient care, however their reliability and accuracy remain variable. We hypothesised that an artificial intelligence (AI) powered triage and diagnostic system would compare favourably with human doctors with respect to triage and diagnostic accuracy. We per…
Reducing ICD-10 code granularity improves cost model accuracy and stability.
problem High-dimensional regression with ICD-10 codes leads to unstable coefficient estimates.
method Log-linear analytics approach to cost model regularization through diagnostic code merging.
result Reducing ICD-10 code granularity from 7 characters to 6 or fewer improves model interpretability and consistency.
The paper introduces diagnostic transport maps to improve the reliability of rare event predictions.
problem Improper calibration of predictive distributions, especially for rare events.
method Diagnostic transport maps to adjust base model's probabilities for better calibration.
result Diagnostic transport maps improve predictive performance for rare events, including 24-hour rapid intensity change.
Develops a diagnostic framework for interest rate model calibration, showing equivalence to Weighted Least Squares and revealing boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability.
problem Calibration of stochastic interest rate models
method Diagnostic framework using non-linear regression and analytical tractability of At-The-Money caps
result Reveals boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability
New diagnostics detect variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare.
problem Variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare, leading to unreliable treatment decisions.
method Proposed evaluation framework using empirical prediction interval width and empirical decision flip rate diagnostics.
result Randomness in optimization and initialization can lead to substantial individual-level variability in risk estimates, affecting clinical decisions.
The paper breaks down AUC into cluster-level components for better model diagnostics.
problem Global AUC masks weaknesses in specific subpopulations, leading to financial or operational risks.
method Formal decomposition of AUC into intra- and inter-cluster components, comparing with other performance metrics.
result Allows practitioners to evaluate and diagnose model performance within and across clusters.
Major advances have been made regarding the utilization of artificial intelligence in health care. In particular, deep learning approaches have been successfully applied for automated and assisted disease diagnosis and prognosis based on complex and high-dimensional data. However, despite all justified enthusiasm, over…
Proposes FACT, a diagnostic for understanding group fairness trade-offs.
problem Group fairness notions often conflict with each other, requiring a cost in model performance.
method Characterizes trade-offs via the fairness-confusion tensor and optimizes accuracy and fairness objectives.
result Demonstrates the use of FACT on synthetic and real datasets to understand accuracy-fairness trade-offs.
This paper simplifies deep ReLU networks into local linear models for better interpretability.
problem Limited transparency and interpretability of deep neural networks, especially ReLU networks.
method Local linear representation and equivalent set of local linear models (LLMs).
result Simplified deep ReLU networks for better interpretability and diagnostics.
Although deep learning has shown great success in recent years, researchers have discovered a critical flaw where small, imperceptible changes in the input to the system can drastically change the output classification. These attacks are exploitable in nearly all of the existing deep learning classification frameworks.…
New diagnostic tool for assessing approximate Bayesian inference.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of approximate Bayesian inference.
method Reframe the problem in terms of incompatible conditional distributions and use Gibbs priors.
result The diagnostic tool can discover the inductive bias in various Bayesian models and approximations.
Paper presents a light-weight CNN model for Parkinson's disease diagnosis.
problem Diagnosing Parkinson's disease efficiently and accurately.
method A light-weight CNN model cascading to LSTM for time-series signals.
result The model achieves high-quality results with fewer parameters and operations.
GeoTop resolves topological ambiguity in diagnostic imaging using geometric-topological analysis.
problem Topological equivalence between benign and malignant structures in diagnostic images.
method Combines Topological Data Analysis and Lipschitz-Killing Curvatures to resolve ambiguity.
result Achieves 3.6% accuracy improvement and reduces false positives/negatives by 15-18%.
It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than with respect to the standard marginal likelihood criterion. However, for most Ba…
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
problem Misleading residual-norm diagnostics in inverse PDE problems.
method Structure-sensitive sequential diagnostic using e-processes.
result Rejects fitted models that produce biased predictions.