We introduce Fisher consistency in the sense of unbiasedness as a desirable property for estimators of class prior probabilities. Lack of Fisher consistency could be used as a criterion to dismiss estimators that are unlikely to deliver precise estimates in test datasets under prior probability and more general dataset…
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48 results for “class prior probabilities”
Friedman's method performs well for estimating class distributions.
problem Estimating prior class probabilities without label observations.
method Friedman's method and DeBias method for designing linear equation systems.
result Friedman's method performs well for binary and multi-class quantification.
Work in the classification literature has shown that in computing a classification function, one need not know the class membership of all observations in the training set; the unlabeled observations still provide information on the marginal distribution of the feature set, and can thus contribute to increased classifi…
SJS model predicts label shifts in multinomial datasets.
problem Predicting label shifts in multinomial datasets.
method Sparse joint shift model for dataset shift.
result Valid predictions and class prior probabilities estimates.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
We consider a problem of learning a binary classifier only from positive data and unlabeled data (PU learning) and estimating the class-prior in unlabeled data under the case-control scenario. Most of the recent methods of PU learning require an estimate of the class-prior probability in unlabeled data, and it is estim…
One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point . The vast majority of classifiers output a score for , which is monotonically related to the posterior probability via an unknown relationship. There are many attempts in the literature …
The problem of developing binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data is often encountered in machine learning. A common requirement in this setting is to approximate posterior probabilities of positive and negative classes for a previously unseen data point. This problem can be decomposed into two steps: (i) t…
Reduces quantifier variance with accuracy optimization of base classifier.
problem Minimizing quantifier variance under prior probability shift.
method Optimizes the Brier score of a base classifier for training data.
result Optimizing Brier score on training data reduces quantifier variance on test data.
Traditional approaches to Bayes net structure learning typically assume little regularity in graph structure other than sparseness. However, in many cases, we expect more systematicity: variables in real-world systems often group into classes that predict the kinds of probabilistic dependencies they participate in. Her…
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
problem Addressing uncertainty in likelihood for upper probability bounds.
method Generalization of Wasserman and Kadane's result, considering both prior and likelihood uncertainty.
result A sufficient condition for the upper bound to become an equality.
Estimates class prior for unlabeled data using kernel embedding.
problem Estimating class prior in PU learning scenario where only positive and full population samples are available.
method Direct estimator based on distribution matching and kernel embedding in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space.
result Asymptotic consistency and explicit deviation bound for the estimator.
Recent advances in weakly supervised classification allow us to train a classifier only from positive and unlabeled (PU) data. However, existing PU classification methods typically require an accurate estimate of the class-prior probability, which is a critical bottleneck particularly for high-dimensional data. This pr…
DPPS uses DP priors for Bayesian non-parametric multi-arm bandits.
problem Optimizing multi-arm bandit environments with prior beliefs.
method Bayesian non-parametric algorithm based on Dirichlet Process priors.
result DPPS provides principled incorporation of prior beliefs and is optimal in Bayesian regret setup.
The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.
problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.
A new method ReCPE removes the need for a distributional assumption in PU learning.
problem Training binary classifiers with only positive and unlabeled data without negative data.
method Regrouping CPE (ReCPE) that constructs an auxiliary distribution to ensure positive data support is never in negative data support.
result ReCPE improves all state-of-the-art CPE methods on various datasets, indicating the need for the distributional assumption.
As part of autonomous car driving systems, semantic segmentation is an essential component to obtain a full understanding of the car's environment. One difficulty, that occurs while training neural networks for this purpose, is class imbalance of training data. Consequently, a neural network trained on unbalanced data …
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA) addresses this problem by substituting the single prior over the models by a set …
We formulate a new class of conditional generative models based on probability flows. Trained with maximum likelihood, it provides efficient inference and sampling from class-conditionals or the joint distribution, and does not require a priori knowledge of the number of classes or the relationships between classes. Th…
The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.
problem The dependence of maximum a posteriori estimates on parametrization.
method Assuming a Riemannian manifold with Fisher metric, the paper reinterprets priors and posteriors as distributions over probability distributions, making estimates independent of parametrization.
result A maximum a posteriori estimate independent of parametrization is defined.
Bayesian neural networks improve with summary information and Dirichlet process.
problem Lack of prior knowledge in BNNs for complex architectures.
method Incorporates external summary information about predicted probabilities using a Dirichlet process.
result Improves model accuracy, uncertainty calibration, and robustness.
In many signal detection and classification problems, we have knowledge of the distribution under each hypothesis, but not the prior probabilities. This paper is aimed at providing theory to quantify the performance of detection via estimating prior probabilities from either labeled or unlabeled training data. The erro…
This paper establishes for the first time the predictive performance of speed priors and their computational complexity. A speed prior is essentially a probability distribution that puts low probability on strings that are not efficiently computable. We propose a variant to the original speed prior (Schmidhuber, 2002),…
The quantification problem consists of determining the prevalence of a given label in a target population. However, one often has access to the labels in a sample from the training population but not in the target population. A common assumption in this situation is that of prior probability shift, that is, once the la…
In this study, we systematically investigate the impact of class imbalance on classification performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and compare frequently used methods to address the issue. Class imbalance is a common problem that has been comprehensively studied in classical machine learning, yet very lim…
PFNs pre-train models on simulated data to predict class probabilities.
problem Training machine learning models on large datasets.
method Pre-train a fixed model on small simulated datasets and use it to infer class probabilities in-context.
result PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance and improve with larger inference data.
FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.
problem Improving multinomial classification accuracy under dataset shift.
method Derive FJS representation and propose alternative methods.
result Factorizable joint shift is not fully identifiable without additional assumptions.
VaB-AL: Incorporating Class Imbalance and Difficulty with Variational Bayes for Active Learningcs.LG
Improves Active Learning by considering class imbalance and difficulty.
problem Active Learning's focus on individual samples ignores class distribution and difficulty.
method Proposes a method based on Bayes' rule to incorporate class imbalance, using a Variational Auto Encoder (VAE).
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on datasets with heavy data imbalance.
In real-world classification problems, the class balance in the training dataset does not necessarily reflect that of the test dataset, which can cause significant estimation bias. If the class ratio of the test dataset is known, instance re-weighting or resampling allows systematical bias correction. However, learning…
Generalized Cumulative Shrinkage Process Priors with Applications to Sparse Bayesian Factor Analysisstat.ME
The paper extends and applies a new shrinkage prior in Bayesian factor analysis.
problem Estimating the number of factors in sparse Bayesian factor analysis.
method Introduces and extends a generalized cumulative shrinkage process (CUSP) prior.
result Exchangeable spike-and-slab shrinkage priors imply increasing shrinkage as the column index increases.
Bayesian model enhances phenotype discovery in asthma EHRs.
problem Lack of interpretability in unsupervised learning phenotyping of EHR data.
method Operationalized a Bayesian latent class framework with clinical knowledge priors.
result Identified an asthma sub-phenotype with elevated eosinophil levels and allergy markers.
Optimality of TS with noninformative priors proven for Pareto model.
problem Optimality of Thompson Sampling with noninformative priors for Pareto bandits.
method Proved optimality of TS with certain probability matching priors, showed suboptimality with others, and found effectiveness of truncation procedures.
result TS with certain probability matching priors achieves optimal regret bound for Pareto model.
New CPS model tackles conditional probability shift in machine learning.
problem Discrepancy between source and target distributions in machine learning.
method Conditional Probability Shift Model (CPSM) using multinomial regression and EM algorithm.
result Superior balanced classification accuracy on target data compared to existing methods.
Improved Bayesian inference using power priors with historical data.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with historical data.
method Generalized power priors that adapt to the parameter of Amari's -divergence.
result Improved performance through appropriate choices of the parameter.
This paper simplifies finding least favorable priors by reducing dimensionality.
problem Finding least favorable priors is challenging due to infinite-dimensional optimization.
method Develops a dimensionality reduction method using Bregman divergences.
result Allows use of gradient ascent algorithms for finding least favorable priors.
A Class of Conjugate Priors for Multinomial Probit Models which Includes the Multivariate Normal Onestat.ME
New conjugate priors improve Bayesian inference for multinomial probit models.
problem Lack of tractable conjugate priors for efficient Bayesian inference in multinomial probit models.
method Unified skew-normal (SUN) distributions as conjugate priors, leading to improved posterior inference and classification.
result Improved computational methods for posterior inference and classification, especially in high dimensions.
Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.
problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to give the conditional probabilities of the next observation. The measure mu belongs…
We develop the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a probability-free infinite-dimensional setup. We replace the usual assumption of a prior probability by a certain continuity property in the state variable. Probabilities enter then endogenously as full support martingale measures (instead of equivalent martingale…
This paper uses reference priors to improve deep learning models with unlabeled and labeled data.
problem Improving deep learning models with limited labeled data and unlabeled data from the same or related tasks.
method Develops and applies generalizations of reference priors for deep networks to exploit unlabeled and labeled data.
result Demonstrates new semi-supervised learning and pretraining methods for transfer learning.
A new method learns proper multiclass losses and probabilities.
problem Learning proper multiclass losses for complex classification tasks.
method Extends monotonicity to multiclass problems using convex functions.
result Consistently outperforms natural multiclass baseline on up to 1,000 class datasets.
Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of class prevalences. One little considered question is whether or not it is necessar…
We implement a systematic asset allocation model using the Historical Simulation with Flexible Probabilities (HS-FP) framework developed by Meucci. The HS-FP framework is a flexible non-parametric estimation approach that considers future asset class behavior to be conditional on time and market environments, and deriv…
Maximum Entropy competes with Maximum Likelihoodphysics.data-an
MAXENT method outperforms ML in sparse data with specific prior correlations.
problem Evaluating MAXENT method's validity limits and comparing it with ML.
method Bayesian decision theory, Dirichlet density, KL distance, regularized maximum likelihood.
result MAXENT can outperform ML in sparse data with specific prior correlations.
Micro-Diffusion Compression - Binary Tree Tweedie Denoising for Online Probability Estimationstat.ML
Midicoth compresses online probability estimates by correcting prior smoothing biases.
problem Compression inefficiency due to prior smoothing in adaptive models.
method Micro-diffusion denoising applied in a bitwise tree hierarchy.
result Significant compression improvement with reliable calibration.
Study improves keyword forecasting in earnings-call prediction markets.
problem Accurately predicting future keyword mentions in earnings calls.
method Experiments on earnings-call mention markets, varying context and market probability, introducing MCP.
result Mixture of market probability and MCP yields the best forecasts.
This paper deals with the design of a sensing matrix along with a sparse recovery algorithm by utilizing the probability-based prior information for compressed sensing system. With the knowledge of the probability for each atom of the dictionary being used, a diagonal weighted matrix is obtained and then the sensing ma…
New Gaussian priors for neural networks improve scalability and Bayesian inference stability.
problem Scalability and stability issues in Bayesian neural network inference.
method Introduces a new Gaussian neural network prior with decreasing variance in network width, enabling stable MCMC sampling.
result The new prior enables stable MCMC sampling for Bayesian neural network inference, improving scalability and stability.