A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
This work studies the parameter identification problem for the Markov chain choice model of Blanchet, Gallego, and Goyal used in assortment planning. In this model, the product selected by a customer is determined by a Markov chain over the products, where the products in the offered assortment are absorbing states. Th…
Paper recovers top-two answers and confusion probability in multi-choice crowdsourcing.
Active learning recovers choice model from noisy data.
This document is an invited chapter covering the specificities of ABC model choice, intended for the incoming Handbook of ABC by Sisson, Fan, and Beaumont (2017). Beyond exposing the potential pitfalls of ABC based posterior probabilities, the review emphasizes mostly the solution proposed by Pudlo et al. (2016) on the…
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributi…
Paper characterizes MDM for consumer choice modeling and prediction.
Develops deep learning models for choice modeling.
Paper extends top-k Mallows model for better user preference analysis.
Revealed preference theory studies the possibility of modeling an agent's revealed preferences and the construction of a consistent utility function. However, modeling agent's choices over preference orderings is not always practical and demands strong assumptions on human rationality and data-acquisition abilities. Th…
Neural networks approximate random utility models for choice prediction.
Revisits PPO design choices, exposing failure modes and proposing alternatives.
DMNL bandits optimize assortment choices balancing relevance and diversity.
Customer behavior is often assumed to follow weak rationality, which implies that adding a product to an assortment will not increase the choice probability of another product in that assortment. However, an increasing amount of research has revealed that customers are not necessarily rational when making decisions. In…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel…
Paper proposes a deep learning method to estimate fill probabilities of limit orders in LOBs.
Adaptive learning rates improve FTPL's BOBW guarantees in bandit problems.
K-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) is a popular classification and regression algorithm, yet one of its main limitations is the difficulty in choosing the number of neighbours. We present a Bayesian algorithm to compute the posterior probability distribution for k given a target point within a data-set, efficiently and withou…
Paper proposes a new method to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models.
Identifies most probable flows for Kunita SDEs in fluid dynamics.
Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, ha…
The paper connects discrete choice models to multi-armed bandit algorithms with sublinear regret bounds.
New method achieves faster calibration without randomization.
Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.
We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathem…
A new kernel for probability measures based on optimal transport.
Assortment optimization is an important problem that arises in many industries such as retailing and online advertising where the goal is to find a subset of products from a universe of substitutable products which maximize seller's expected revenue. One of the key challenges in this problem is to model the customer su…
There is a growing need for discrete choice models that account for the complex nature of human choices, escaping traditional behavioral assumptions such as the transitivity of pairwise preferences. Recently, several parametric models of intransitive comparisons have been proposed, but in all cases the maximum likeliho…
Study shows subordinated Cramér-Lundberg model increases ruin probability.
Simple algorithms identify best items or full rankings from choice-based feedback.
The aim of this work consists in the study of the optimal investment strategy for a behavioural investor, whose preference towards risk is described by both a probability distortion and an S-shaped utility function. Within a continuous-time financial market framework and assuming that asset prices are modelled by semim…
Optimizes football play calls using reinforcement learning.
Gaussians as noise in NCE lead to exponentially bad conditioning, hindering its efficiency.
We propose an analytically tractable variation of the minority game in which rational agents use probabilistic strategies. In our model, agents choose between two alternatives repeatedly, and those who are in the minority get a pay-off 1, others zero. The agents optimize the expectation value of their discounted fu…
Better boosting with bandits improves probability estimation in online learning.
This work shows how evaluation metrics can be seen as fair gambles.
It has long been agreed by academics that the inversion method is the method of choice for generating random variates, given the availability of the quantile function. However for several probability distributions arising in practice a satisfactory method of approximating these functions is not available. The main focu…
Study shows refugee matching gains are robust to different evaluation methods.
SpectralTS improves efficiency of Thompson Sampling for graph-based bandits.
By specifying model free preferences towards simple nested classes of lottery pairs, we develop the dual story to stand on equal footing with that of (primal) risk apportionment. The dual story provides an intuitive interpretation, and full characterization, of dual counterparts of such concepts as prudence and tempera…
Problem definition. In retailing, discrete choice models (DCMs) are commonly used to capture the choice behavior of customers when offered an assortment of products. When estimating DCMs using transaction data, flexible models (such as machine learning models or nonparametric models) are typically not interpretable and…
This work connects IRL methods from ML and economics.
PLD distills knowledge using choice-theoretic Plackett-Luce model.
Construction of ambiguity set in robust optimization relies on the choice of divergences between probability distributions. In distribution learning, choosing appropriate probability distributions based on observed data is critical for approximating the true distribution. To improve the performance of machine learning …
Study counterfactuals in combinatorial choice using a representative agent model.
Many investment models in discrete or continuous-time settings boil down to maximizing an objective of the quantile function of the decision variable. This quantile optimization problem is known as the quantile formulation of the original investment problem. Under certain monotonicity assumptions, several schemes to so…
Optimal adaptive experiment for choosing best treatment with binary outcomes.