Paper detects hierarchical changes in latent variable models from data streams.
problem Detecting changes at three levels: data distribution, latent variables, and number of latent variables.
method Information-theoretic framework using MDL and DNML for change detection.
result Effective in detecting changes with good interpretability.
New method combines domain changes and sparse mixing for better latent variable learning.
problem Challenges in identifying latent variables due to insufficient domain changes and violated sparsity constraints.
method Combines sufficient changes and sparse mixing constraints, using domain encoding networks and variational autoencoders.
result Identifiability of latent variables achieved with less restrictive constraints.
Trading strategy uses Hoeffding's Inequality to predict financial regime change.
problem Predicting financial regime change for trading strategies.
method Applies Hoeffding's Inequality to trading performance data.
result Early warning of financial regime change can be detected.
Improves change-point detection for high-dimensional time-series.
problem Uncertainty in latent variable estimation affects change-point detection.
method Proposes multinomial sampling to improve detection rate and reduce delay.
result Results outperform baseline method in experiments.
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.
Tree-based regularization improves latent variable inference from related datasets.
problem Inferring latent variables from multiple related datasets in causal systems.
method Tree-Based Regularization (TBR) for sparse changes across environments.
result TBR identifies true latent variables up to simple transformations under sparse changes.
Proposes a model to detect changes in multivariate time series data.
problem Detect abrupt changes in multivariate time series data considering dependencies and correlations.
method Integrates graph neural networks into an encoder-decoder framework to model correlation structures and dynamics.
result Advantageous performance on CPD tasks over strong baselines, classifying changes as correlation or independent.
We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show that under this assumption, the correct causal structural choices lead to faster ad…
This paper tackles causal representation learning from multiple distributions without hard interventions.
problem Recovering latent causal variables and their relations from multiple distributions.
method Develops general solutions for causal representation learning without hard interventions, under sparsity constraints and suitable change conditions.
result Recovering the moralized graph of the underlying directed acyclic graph and latent variables related to the underlying causal model.
Researchers relax the CVF's smoothness requirement to create more flexible flow models.
problem Challenges in constructing flexible density models due to the CVF's smoothness requirement.
method Introduce L-diffeomorphisms as generalized transformations that may violate smoothness on zero Lebesgue-measure sets. result The relaxation allows for the use of non-smooth activation functions like ReLU in residual flows.
Paper generalizes paracomposition and change of variables for paradifferential operators.
problem Generalizing paracomposition and change of variables for paradifferential operators in low regularity settings.
method Drops diffeomorphism hypothesis, estimates in Sobolev and Zygmund spaces, discusses pull-back of pseudodifferential and paradifferential operators.
result Sharp estimates for composition in Sobolev and Zygmund spaces, change of variables in paradifferential operators.
Derives a new formula for optimal stopping problems with exploding derivatives.
problem Optimal stopping problems with complex boundary conditions.
method Develops a change of variable formula for functions with exploding derivatives near a surface.
result Derives a formula similar to Itô's but with less restrictive conditions.
Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.
problem Detect and attribute climate change impacts from observations robustly.
method Supervised learning with anchor regression for robust predictions under interventions.
result CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature patterns under strong solar forcing interventions.
Domain adaptation framework identifies latent variables for target distribution identifiability.
problem Unsupervised domain adaptation without identifiable joint distribution of features and labels.
method Formulated latent variable model with invariant and changing components, constrained domain shift to influence only changing components.
result Joint distribution of data and labels in target domain is identifiable under mild conditions.
Bayesian Context Trees improve change-point detection in discrete data.
problem Detecting and segmenting change-points in discrete time series data.
method Bayesian Context Trees framework, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective sampling from posterior distribution of change-points.
Graphical models are widely used in scienti fic and engineering research to represent conditional independence structures between random variables. In many controlled experiments, environmental changes or external stimuli can often alter the conditional dependence between the random variables, and potentially produce s…
New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.
problem Identify latent causal variables from sequential data.
method Proposes TDRL framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data.
result Identifies latent causal variables reliably from sequential data.
An essential problem in domain adaptation is to understand and make use of distribution changes across domains. For this purpose, we first propose a flexible Generative Domain Adaptation Network (G-DAN) with specific latent variables to capture changes in the generating process of features across domains. By explicitly…
Simplified calculus for semimartingales makes complex transformations easier.
problem Complex transformations of semimartingales.
method Unified treatment of transformations for real and complex semimartingales.
result Unified calculus for semimartingales simplifies various transformations.
Balancing graph summarization and change detection in streaming data.
problem Balancing compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection.
method Introducing a probabilistic hierarchical latent variable model and optimizing parameters based on the minimum description length principle to balance the trade-off.
result Guaranteed suppression of Type I error probability (false alarms) in change detection.
We present two online causal structure learning algorithms which can track changes in a causal structure and process data in a dynamic real-time manner. Standard causal structure learning algorithms assume that causal structure does not change during the data collection process, but in real-world scenarios, it does oft…
We introduce a variable importance measure to quantify the impact of individual input variables to a black box function. Our measure is based on the Shapley value from cooperative game theory. Many measures of variable importance operate by changing some predictor values with others held fixed, potentially creating unl…
Study uses remotely sensed data to infer economic outcomes in experiments and quasi-experiments.
problem Imperfect measurement of economic outcomes by remotely sensed variables.
method Combines experimental and observational data to identify causal parameters, using satellite imagery and mobile phone activity.
result Developed a robust method for n^{-1/2} inference that does not restrict remotely sensed variable processing algorithms.
Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.
problem Optimizing experiments influenced by uncontrollable environmental factors.
method Extends Bayesian optimization to handle both controllable and uncontrollable parameters, fitting a global surrogate model and optimizing only controllable parameters conditionally on measurements of uncontrollable variables.
result The proposed ENVBO algorithm finds solutions for the full domain of the environmental variable more efficiently and cost-effectively than traditional methods.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
We present an alternating augmented Lagrangian method for convex optimization problems where the cost function is the sum of two terms, one that is separable in the variable blocks, and a second that is separable in the difference between consecutive variable blocks. Examples of such problems include Fused Lasso estima…
Estimates causal contributions of multiple causes on outcome changes.
problem Quantifying the effect of multiple causes on an outcome change.
method Develops a multiply robust estimation strategy combining regression and re-weighting methods.
result The method recovers the target parameter under partial misspecification and is consistent and asymptotically normal.
Paper tackles dynamic behavior of variable topology mechanisms, presenting new transition conditions.
problem Dynamic behavior of mechanisms with changing kinematic topology.
method Presented new transition conditions for variable topology mechanisms using projected motion equations and Voronets equations.
result Results show the dynamic behavior of joint locking in 3R and 6DOF mechanisms.
We study exponential Levy models with change-point which is a random variable, independent from initial Levy processes. On canonical space with initially enlarged filtration we describe all equivalent martingale measures for change-point model and we give the conditions for the existence of f-divergence minimal equival…
Recourse explanations can become invalid if collective actions change statistical data.
problem Recourse explanations may become invalid due to collective behavior changing data statistics.
method Formal characterization of conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under performativity.
result Recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or intervene on non-causal variables.
Recent years have seen an increasing popularity of learning the sparse \emph{changes} in Markov Networks. Changes in the structure of Markov Networks reflect alternations of interactions between random variables under different regimes and provide insights into the underlying system. While each individual network struc…
The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have have power law decay, with density f(x)≃f0x−2, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability…
It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data…
When training a deep neural network for image classification, one can broadly distinguish between two types of latent features of images that will drive the classification. We can divide latent features into (i) "core" or "conditionally invariant" features Xcore whose distribution Xcore∣Y, cond…
Geometric QHD tests improve hub detection in correlated data.
problem Detecting hubs in correlated data with evolving correlations.
method Geometric QHD tests combining QCD and QHD, clustering.
result Improved hub detection in correlated data.
Studying the impact of climate change on precipitation is constrained by finding a way to evaluate the evolution of precipitation variability over time. Classical approaches (feature-based) have shown their limitations for this issue due to the intermittent and irregular nature of precipitation. In this study, we prese…
We prove two-sided inequalities for the Lp-norm of a pushforward or pullback (with respect to an orientation-preserving diffeomorphism) on oriented volume and Riemannian manifolds. For a function or density on a volume manifold, these bounds depend only on the Jacobian determinant, which arises through the change of…
Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on …
New framework predicts 5-year glucose values with missing data.
problem Significant missing data in longitudinal glucose studies.
method Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) with missing responses analysis.
result Identifies new factors affecting long-term glucose evolution.
EVARS-GPR refines Gaussian Process Regression for seasonal data with sudden scale changes.
problem Challenges in forecasting with changing system behavior over time.
method Combines online change point detection with data augmentation for refitting.
result 20.8% lower RMSE on real-world datasets compared to similar methods.
Extends effect variable concept to finite states for web search evaluation.
problem Finding effect of variant variables in changes of observable variables.
method Theoretical analysis and simultaneous distribution decomposition.
result States of extreme effect variable are minimally affected by variant and highly different in observable variable.
Study predicts wind energy potential in Gulf of Oman using climate models.
problem Predicting future wind energy potential in the Gulf of Oman.
method Used ERA5 and MENA simulations to project historical and future wind energy variability.
result Selected locations have suitable potential for wind power turbine construction.
Identifying changes in model parameters is fundamental in machine learning and statistics. However, standard changepoint models are limited in expressiveness, often addressing unidimensional problems and assuming instantaneous changes. We introduce change surfaces as a multidimensional and highly expressive generalizat…
Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series of demand, supply and the price itself. However, there are many historic events …
New MIP approach for efficient change-point detection.
problem Offline multiple change-point detection in data streams.
method Mixed-integer programming (MIP) for globally optimal PWL fitting.
result Provable tighter relaxations for segment assignment variables.
Researchers derive q-series for SO(3) and OSp(1∣2) groups.
problem Deriving q-series for SO(3) and OSp(1∣2) groups. method Change of variable relating SU(2) link invariants to SO(3) and OSp(1∣2) link invariants. result Explicit q-series for SO(3) and OSp(1∣2) groups. Although the growth of share-based payments with performance conditions (hereafter, SPPC) is prominent today, the theoretical price of SPPC has not been sufficiently studied. Reflecting such a situation, the current accounting standards for share-based payments issued in 2004 have had many problems. This paper develops…
This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental evaluation of a randomized treatment. It then reviews evaluation methods based on se…