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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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22456789 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for causal transmission

CAPM interpretation is flawed; beta reflects proxy for underlying driver, not causal transmission.

problem Inconsistent interpretation of CAPM regression as contemporaneous causation.
method Formalized CAPM as a structural causal model and analyzed admissible three-node graphs.
result Contemporaneous betas act like proxies rather than mechanisms; genuine market-to-stock channel appears only at a lag.

Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting causal trade. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, market dynamics clearly differ…

2013-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

New method removes interference bias in causal models.

problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.

Framework calculates positional influence in causal residual Transformers.

problem Understanding positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
method Adjoint-sensitivity framework for positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
result Exact evolution of adjoint-energy influence density and decomposition into residual transmission, nonlocal Volterra, and local channels.

Novel approach constructs differential causal networks from EEG data.

problem Difficulty in modeling interactions of thousands of neurons in group comparisons.
method Hierarchical differential dynamic causal nets based on Chen-Fliess expansions.
result Evidence of network functional disruptions in epileptic brains.

Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.

problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.

This paper uses deep reinforcement learning to automate electric transmission voltage control.

problem Automating voltage control in electric transmission systems.
method Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) applied to voltage control, with a novel DQN modification.
result DRL can automate voltage control at scale, but more research is needed.

Market stability depends on a fundamental value anchor, not price crashes.

problem Stability of order-book markets under fundamental anchoring.
method Analytical model and empirical analysis of six transmission channels.
result Fundamental anchoring stabilizes markets by mean-reverting prices and refilling books; removing the anchor leads to market failure.

This work interprets GELU and related activations via a first-order loss function.

problem Understanding and optimizing activation functions in neural networks.
method Complementary interpretation using the Gaussian first-order loss function.
result Calibrated or learned uniform-threshold gates are competitive and often outperform GELU, ReLU, and SiLU/Swish.

Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.

problem Challenges in discovering robust lead-lag relationships in prediction markets due to spurious correlations.
method Two-stage approach: statistical Granger causality followed by LLM semantic re-ranking.
result LLM-based method outperforms statistical baseline, increasing win rate and reducing average loss magnitude.

Linear problems appear in a variety of disciplines and their application for the transmission matrix recovery is one of the most stimulating challenges in biomedical imaging. Its knowledge turns any random media into an optical tool that can focus or transmit an image through disorder. Here, converting an input-output …

2019-01-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Transmission imaging, as an important imaging technique widely used in astronomy, medical diagnosis, and biology science, has been shown in [49] quite different from reflection imaging used in our everyday life. Understanding the structures of images (the prior information) is important for designing, testing, and choo…

2014-01-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Traders and investors involved in an option contract having the underlying stock in range bound are likely to lose their initial investment. Timing in buying an option contract is of capital importance. In a recent article [1] the hypothesis of range bound market is used in conjunction to Black-Scholes equation to find…

2013-07-23abs ↗pdf ↗

UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.

problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.

In agreement with the recent research findings in the econophysics, we propose that the nonlinear dynamic chaos can be generated by the turbulent capital flows in both the quantitative easing transmission channels and the transaction networks channels, when there are the laminar turbulent capital flows transitions in t…

2013-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel method detects faults in helicopter transmissions using healthy data only.

problem Detecting faults in rare events in helicopter transmissions.
method Probabilistic anomaly detection using Bayesian measures.
result Method achieves competitive detection performance in real-world and benchmark applications.

A new method for energy-efficient file delivery in small cell networks.

problem Efficient resource management in femto-caching with time-variant statistical properties.
method Formulates a resource allocation problem as a stochastic knapsack problem and a multi-armed bandit problem, developing solutions for each.
result The proposed method maximizes the accumulated utility over the horizon, especially suitable for networks with time-variant statistical properties.

One of the biggest challenges in the field of biomedical imaging is the comprehension and the exploitation of the photon scattering through disordered media. Many studies have pursued the solution to this puzzle, achieving light-focusing control or reconstructing images in complex media. In the present work, we investi…

2019-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Study investigates FL performance over a noisy downlink, showing analog approach outperforms digital.

problem Impact of bandwidth-limited downlink on federated learning performance.
method Modelled downlink and uplink channels; proposed digital and analog downlink approaches; analyzed convergence behavior.
result Analog downlink approach provides significant improvement over digital approach, especially with biased data distribution.

Modeling infection hotspots to quantify effects of contact tracing and testing.

problem Capturing the role of infection hotspots in disease transmission.
method Temporal point process modeling framework to represent visits and disease transmission.
result Estimation of transmission rates at sites and households using Bayesian optimization.

Optimizes variational autoencoder for detecting missing data in Mars rover transmissions.

problem Detecting missing data in Mars rover transmissions to prevent volume loss and corruption.
method Applies derivative-free optimization to tune variational autoencoder.
result Improves variational autoencoder's ability to detect missing data, aiding GDSA team.

Study examines robustness of NPI effectiveness models against COVID-19.

problem How do NPI effectiveness estimates vary with model assumptions and data?
method Investigated 2 NPI effectiveness models and 6 variants, evaluated robustness to unseen countries, parameters, and data.
result NPI effectiveness estimates are remarkably robust to different variables.

New scheme for sparse feature selection in networked data.

problem Sparse feature selection in distributed, communication-restricted networks.
method Distributed sparse linear regression and feature selection method.
result True causal features can be reliably recovered with minimal bandwidth usage.

New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.

problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.

We consider wireless transmission of images in the presence of channel output feedback. From a Shannon theoretic perspective feedback does not improve the asymptotic end-to-end performance, and separate source coding followed by capacity-achieving channel coding, which ignores the feedback signal, achieves the optimal …

2019-11-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks affect sovereign risk differently, with distinct transmission channels.

problem Understanding how geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks impact sovereign credit risk.
method Daily panel data of 42 economies over 2018-2025; semistructural framework; Shapley-Taylor decomposition; machine learning predictions; placebo and sign-restricted SVAR evidence.
result Geopolitical shocks primarily increase sovereign credit spreads through direct repricing, while geoeconomic shocks mainly affect spreads through financial conditions and policy uncertainty.

IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.

problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.

The weighted and directed network of countries based on the number of overseas banks is analyzed in terms of its fragility to the banking crisis of one country. We use two different models to describe transmission of shocks, one local and the other global. Depending on the original source of the crisis, the overall siz…

2014-03-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper develops algorithms to minimize queue length regret in a communication system.

problem Minimizing the difference between actual and optimal queue lengths over time slots.
method Introduces queue length regret and applies algorithms from stochastic multi-armed bandit problem to analyze system performance.
result Order optimal O(1)O(1) queue length regret can be achieved with queue-length based policies.

Wireless communication systems operate in complex time-varying environments. Therefore, selecting the optimal configuration parameters in these systems is a challenging problem. For wireless links, \emph{rate selection} is used to select the optimal data transmission rate that maximizes the link throughput subject to a…

2019-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

This study analyzes satellite communication latency using a stochastic geometry model.

problem Latency analysis of LEO satellite relay communication systems.
method Stochastic geometry framework with spherical BPP models, suboptimal satellite relay selection strategy.
result Derives distance distributions and analytical expressions for transmission delays.