CRL approach improves understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex diseases.
method Causal rule learning (CRL) workflow consisting of rule discovery, selection, and analysis.
result CRL outperforms other methods in providing interpretable estimates of HTE.
Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines avoid spurious associations.
problem Learning algorithms for rule-based models are vulnerable to spurious associations.
method Building on invariant causal prediction, propose Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines for conjunctions/disjunctions of binary-valued rules.
result The method can identify causal parents of a variable of interest in polynomial time.
The paper uses machine learning to find causal rules from business process logs.
problem Discovering causal relationships in business process logs.
method Action rule mining followed by causal machine learning (uplift trees).
result Identifies treatments with high causal effect on outcomes.
The paper tackles causal rule discovery from observational data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal effects from observational data due to confounding factors and high variance.
method Measures causal effect from observational data, providing graphical criteria and a conservative estimator.
result Proposes an efficient algorithm that maximises the estimator and discovers meaningful causal rules.
Neyman's framework evaluates personalized treatment rules using experiments.
problem Evaluating the efficacy of individualized treatment rules derived by machine learning.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework applied to cross-fitted ITRs.
result Ex-post evaluation of ITRs can be more efficient than random assignment.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
New framework learns interaction rules from animal trajectories.
problem Challenges in extracting interaction rules from animal movement data.
method Augmented behavioral models with neural networks and theory-guided regularization.
result Improved performance over baselines and novel biological insights.
Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogenei…
We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given probl…
New scoring rule predicts causal relations from data with selection bias.
problem Discovering causal relations from independence constraints under selection bias and confounding.
method Local Y-Structure patterns and a scoring rule for Y-Structures.
result Y-Structure scoring rule successfully predicts causal relations in real-world data.
Paper characterizes causal graphs from hard interventions and proposes a learning algorithm.
problem Discovering causal structure from hard interventions and observational data.
method Proposes graphical constraints and a learning algorithm based on do-calculus.
result Characterizes interventional equivalence classes of causal graphs with latent variables.
New measures for causal entropy and information gain studied.
problem Quantifying causal relationships in machine learning.
method Formal study of causal entropy and information gain.
result Established fundamental properties and relationships.
New method uses sufficient statistics to infer causal relationships from observational data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data with hidden variables.
method Information Bottleneck method applied to find functional sufficient statistics.
result New causal rules not obtainable from standard methods, validated on simulated and real data.
CIfly simplifies causal inference tasks with linear-time reachability primitives.
problem Efficiently solving complex causal inference problems.
method Formalizes reachability as a core operation, builds on state-space graphs, and uses rule tables.
result CIfly algorithms run in linear time, outperforming existing methods.
The paper classifies ruled surfaces in Lorentz-Minkowski space that are stationary for the moment of inertia.
problem Classifying ruled surfaces in Lorentz-Minkowski space that are stationary for the moment of inertia.
method Maximum principle applications, classification based on causal character of rulings.
result Planes are the only cylindrical stationary surfaces. For non-cylindrical surfaces, classification depends on the causal character of the rulings.
New framework optimizes decisions under uncertainty considering causal and continuous data.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertain distributions with causal and continuous data structures.
method Developed a framework using Causal Sinkhorn DRO with Soft Regression Forest decision rules.
result Framework provides interpretable and tractable decision rules for optimizing under uncertainty.
RISE learns decisions with sensitive variables, improving worst-case outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and bias in decisions due to delayed sensitive variable data.
method Incorporates sensitive variables offline but not at deployment, using quantile or infimum optimization.
result Improves worst-case outcomes for individuals affected by unavailable sensitive variables.
CRE discovers interpretable subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Identifying subgroups with notable treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Causal Rule Ensemble (CRE) using an ensemble-of-trees approach.
result CRE offers interpretable decision rules and high stability in subgroup discovery.
New model learns causal world dynamics from state space models.
problem Lack of causal world models in neural world modeling.
method State Space Models (SSM) with attention mechanisms.
result SSM can learn causal models of environments with equivalent performance.
The estimation of optimal treatment regimes is of considerable interest to precision medicine. In this work, we propose a causal k-nearest neighbor method to estimate the optimal treatment regime. The method roots in the framework of causal inference, and estimates the causal treatment effects within the nearest neig…
Triangulation filters spurious circuits in multilingual models.
problem Unreliable explanations of multilingual models across languages.
method Formalizes reference families and introduces triangulation as a causal acceptance rule.
result Triangulation provides a falsifiable standard for mechanistic claims.
Causal terminology is often introduced in the interpretation of encoding and decoding models trained on neuroimaging data. In this article, we investigate which causal statements are warranted and which ones are not supported by empirical evidence. We argue that the distinction between encoding and decoding models is n…
New framework for cyclic quantum causal models with graph separation property.
problem Understanding causal relationships in feedback processes and exotic scenarios.
method Introducing a robust probability rule and a novel graph-separation property, p-separation.
result Established graph-separation properties for all consistent cyclic causal models.
Develops a framework for distributional Granger causality
problem Identifying predictive dependence in time series beyond Gaussian settings
method Using finite collection of channel-specific restrictions
result Identifies distributional Granger non-causality through testable hypotheses
CPCMs integrate causal drivers for robust portfolio optimization.
problem Degradation of classical portfolio models under structural breaks and lack of arbitrage consistency in machine learning.
method Causal PDE-Control Models integrating structural causal drivers, nonlinear filtering, and forward-backward PDE control.
result CPCM solvers achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower turnover than benchmarks.
We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection {(Si,li)}i=1n, where each Si is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of Xi×Yi, and li is a binary label indicating whether "Xi→Yi" or …
New methods use vector search and nearest-neighbor matching for policy learning in causal inference.
problem Learning optimal policies in causal inference with limited data.
method RAG-based policy learning with vector search and nearest-neighbor matching.
result The methods bound the within-candidate choice regret and evaluate the one-step method directly as a policy.
We propose a new method of discovering causal relationships in temporal data based on the notion of causal compression. To this end, we adopt the Pearlian graph setting and the directed information as an information theoretic tool for quantifying causality. We introduce chain rule for directed information and use it to…
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explic…
Study identifies causal relationships without direct supervision from unknown interventions.
problem Identify causal relationships from unknown interventions without direct supervision.
method General nonparametric setting with multiple datasets from unknown interventions.
result Identify ground truth latents and causal graph up to ambiguities.
Study creates a multimodal learning framework for CVD risk prediction.
problem Predicting cardiovascular disease risk in diverse populations.
method Combines cross modal transformers, graph neural networks, and causal representation learning.
result Model predicts personalized CVD risk with causal invariance across subpopulations.
New methods for Z-transform inversion and Wiener-Hopf factorization.
problem Efficient numerical inversion of Z-transforms and factorization of functions. method Sinh-deformations of contours, variable changes, and simplified trapezoid rule.
result High precision and speed in evaluating moments and constructing filters.
Overlap between treatment groups is required for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. If a subgroup of subjects always receives the same intervention, we cannot estimate the effect of intervention changes on that subgroup without further assumptions. When overlap does not hold globally, characterizing local reg…
New calculus on spacetimes for nonlinear differential equations.
problem Nonlinear differential equations on metric measure spacetimes.
method Introduces maximal weak subslope and variational calculus.
result Establishes a comparison theorem for nonlinear p-d'Alembertian. Model identifies causal structure from paired observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
problem Identifying causal structure from observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
method Proposes a scalable causal discovery model that aggregates subset-level PDAGs and applies contrastive cross-regime orientation rules.
result The model asymptotically recovers the identifiable PDAG and can orient additional edges compared to non-contrastive subset-restricted methods.
We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent confounders and arbitrary probability distributions. We also generalize adjustment c…
Develops a mathematical framework for causal fermion systems in infinite dimensions.
problem Analysis of causal fermion systems in infinite-dimensional settings.
method Introduces Banach manifold structure and expedient differential calculus.
result Establishes Hölder continuity of causal Lagrangian and integrated causal Lagrangian.
One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that explo…
Develops logic programs for explaining classification model decisions.
problem Creating explanations for decisions made by classification models.
method Answer-set programs for computing counterfactual interventions.
result Maximum responsibility causal explanations can be computed.
Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of as…
DAGgr aggregates multiple DAGs to stabilize causal structure learning.
problem Stability in learning causal structure from data.
method Model averaging of candidate DAGs weighted by predictive likelihood, with acyclicity enforced.
result DAGgr consistently outperforms individual DAGs and bootstrap-aggregation baselines.
New method simplifies causal inference with tiered background knowledge.
problem Large equivalence classes of DAGs limit causal information.
method Integrates tiered background knowledge to create 'tiered MPDAGs' with simplified structure.
result Tiered MPDAGs are chain graphs with chordal components, simplifying causal effect estimation.
b-LOAD extends local causal discovery with prior knowledge, improving causal effect estimation.
problem Local causal discovery struggles in data-scarce settings due to uncertainty and incomplete neighborhoods.
method b-LOAD incorporates prior knowledge directly into local structure learning, using Meek's rules to refine discovery.
result b-LOAD refines the admissible equivalence class and enlarges identifiable causal queries, improving causal effect estimation.
Estimates funding impact from an algorithmic relief rule, finding little effect on hospital activities.
problem Evaluating the impact of algorithmic policy decisions.
method Developed a treatment-effect estimator using algorithmic decisions as instruments.
result Funding from an algorithmic relief rule had little effect on COVID-19-related hospital activities.
Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information for an (potentially causal) effect of the treatment A(t) on the outcome Y(t), in…
Develops a new framework for causal models on cyclic graphs, solving unique solvability issues.
problem Challenges in specifying unique probability distributions for cyclic functional causal models.
method Introduces a new probability rule and graph-separation property (p-separation) for cyclic fCMs.
result Proves p-separation is sound and complete for all consistent cyclic fCMs, recovering d-separation for DAGs.
New method uses logical relations to derive bounds and inequality constraints from causal models.
problem Recovering bounds and inequality constraints from unobserved confounding.
method Using rules of probability and restrictions on counterfactuals implied by causal graphical models.
result Powerful method to recover known and novel bounds and constraints.
From doctors diagnosing patients to judges setting bail, experts often base their decisions on experience and intuition rather than on statistical models. While understandable, relying on intuition over models has often been found to result in inferior outcomes. Here we present a new method, select-regress-and-round, f…