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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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4182123164 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for causal bias

We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.

problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.

New algorithm identifies causal relationships from graphs, even with selection bias.

problem Identifying causal relationships from graphs with selection bias.
method Developed a measure-theoretic version of Pearl's causal calculus and a sound, complete identification algorithm.
result General measure-theoretic version of causal calculus allows for identification of causal relationships under selection bias.

New method reduces bias in estimating causal effects from discretized variables.

problem Bias in estimating causal effects from discretized continuous variables.
method Proposes a bias-reduced functional that evaluates outcome regression at within-bin conditional means.
result Demonstrates substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage.

Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.

problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.

A decision-maker must consider cofounding bias when attempting to apply machine learning prediction, and, while feature selection is widely recognized as important process in data-analysis, it could cause cofounding bias. A causal Bayesian network is a standard tool for describing causal relationships, and if relations…

2020-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New method removes interference bias in causal models.

problem Interference bias impedes causal effect identification in real-world settings.
method Novel definition of causal models with local interference, semi-parametric assumptions.
result True Average Causal Effect can be identified in certain semi-parametric models with local interference.

LILI clustering reduces bias in causal inference by grouping similar counterfactual outcomes.

problem Bias in causal inference from causal forest methods.
method LILI clustering algorithm integrates causal trees through leaf similarity.
result LILI clustering reduces bias and improves prediction accuracy for ATE.

Algorithm recovers causal graphs in presence of latent confounders and selection bias.

problem Recovering causal graphs in the presence of latent confounders and selection bias.
method Iterative causal discovery (ICD) algorithm that relies on causal Markov and faithfulness assumptions.
result Sound and complete algorithm that recovers the equivalence class of the underlying causal graph.

New causal models perform poorly when evaluated on biased training sets.

problem Sample selection bias affects the evaluation of causal models' prediction performance.
method Re-evaluated prediction performance of causal models on a genetic perturbation data set, proposing a less-biased evaluation set.
result Causal models have similar or worse performance when evaluated on a less-biased set compared to standard association-based estimators.

Estimates causal effects with selection bias and confounding using regression.

problem Estimating causal effects in presence of selection bias and confounding.
method Two-step regression estimator (TSR) that corrects for selection bias and accounts for confounding.
result TSR estimator reduces variance and is validated in simulations.

The paper tackles bandit problems with biased offline data by using causal methods.

problem Improving bandit algorithms with biased offline data that includes confounding and selection biases.
method Formalizes the problem from a causal perspective, categorizes biases, and derives robust bounds for each arm.
result Causal bounds can guide the bandit agent to learn a nearly-optimal decision policy and consistently reduce asymptotic regret.

TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.

problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.

This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.

problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.

New method detects bias in AI models that generate data.

problem Detecting bias in AI models that generate data.
method Formalized causal fairness in generative AI, derived new decomposition results, established identification conditions, and introduced efficient estimators.
result Demonstrated the value of new methodology in analyzing bias in large language models.

CgNN uses network structure as IVs to estimate causal effects in networks.

problem Hidden confounders complicate causal effect estimation in network data.
method CgNN combines GNNs and attention mechanisms to leverage network structure as IVs.
result CgNN effectively mitigates hidden confounder bias and improves causal effect estimation.

BICauseTree improves causal effect estimation by identifying clusters and balancing treatment allocation.

problem Improving interpretability and transparency in causal effect models from observational data.
method Hierarchical bias-driven stratification using decision trees with a customized objective function.
result BICauseTree provides interpretable causal effect estimation and is comparable to existing methods.

Paper distinguishes causal structures under latent confounding and selection bias.

problem Distinguishing causal relationships when latent variables and selection bias are present.
method Formulated selected-marginalized directed graphs (smDGs) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they have the same selected-marginalized directed graph.

Most of previous machine learning algorithms are proposed based on the i.i.d. hypothesis. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in real applications, where selection bias may arise between training and testing process. Moreover, in many scenarios, the testing data is not even available during the training pr…

2017-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles treatment leakage in text-based causal inference, proposing methods to mitigate bias.

problem Treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications introduces bias in causal estimates.
method Formal definitions, four text distillation methods (passage removal, classification, salient feature removal, nullspace projection).
result Moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention.

ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the un…

2019-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles causal inference with partially labeled data, introducing robust methods.

problem Challenges in causal inference due to partially labeled datasets and potential bias.
method Decaying missing-at-random framework and BRSS estimator for doubly robust causal inference.
result Established asymptotic normality of BRSS estimator under decaying labeling propensity scores.

It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous causal effects can be inferred. Given this phenomenon it is common practice to inclu…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.

problem Evaluating causal thinking in AI Scientists with LLMs.
method Interactive games with 14 scenarios incorporating selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders.
result None of the 30 LLM agents demonstrated reliable causal thinking, with the best model achieving only 68.0% survival.

Enhanced framework selects features for unbiased causal inference.

problem Unbiased estimation of causal quantities in causal inference.
method Three-stage computational framework balancing treatment and non-treatment variables.
result Significantly reduces bias and variance in estimating causal quantities.

Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this paper, we introduce a covariate adjustment formulation for controlling confoundi…

2019-07-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.

problem Bias in causal estimates due to unobserved confounding.
method Formalizes confounding strength, uses Austen plots to visualize and quantify bias.
result Allows domain experts to assess the plausibility of strong confounders.

DML-CMR estimator reduces bias in CMR problems using deep neural networks.

problem Solving conditional moment restrictions with deep neural networks.
method Double/debiased machine learning framework for unbiased estimation.
result Achieves minimax optimal convergence rate of O(N1/2)O(N^{-1/2}).

Proposes a sensitivity framework to handle limited overlap in causal inference.

problem Limited overlap between treated and control groups in observational studies.
method Sensitivity framework based on worst-case confidence bounds on bias introduced by trimming.
result Protects against spurious findings by quantifying uncertainty in regions with limited overlap.

A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.

problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.

New method mitigates bias without sensitive data using causal graph and variational autoencoder.

problem Lack of fairness strategies when sensitive attributes are not collected.
method SRCVAE framework based on causal graph for inferring a proxy sensitive attribute.
result Significant improvements in fairness metrics over existing methods.

Machine learning can improve 2SLS first stage predictions, but nonlinear methods often introduce bias.

problem Improving the first stage of 2SLS using machine learning.
method Decomposed bias into three components, investigated through simulation.
result Nonlinear machine learning methods can introduce substantial bias in second-stage estimates.

New framework for interpreting disaggregated fairness evaluations using causal models.

problem Misinterpretation of disaggregated fairness evaluations due to data representativeness and selection bias.
method Causal graphical models to characterize fairness properties and metric stability under different data generating processes.
result Disaggregated evaluations are unreliable without explicit assumptions regarding bias mechanisms.

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be …

2017-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.

problem Misspecification of factor models in financial event studies leads to inconsistent estimates of causal effects.
method Proposed synthetic control methods to construct replicating portfolios from control securities.
result Synthetic control methods provide more accurate estimates of causal effects in event studies.