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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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22446587 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for causal DAGs

CASPER improves DAG structure learning by integrating graph structure into score function.

problem Discovering suboptimal DAGs and model vulnerabilities in causal discovery.
method CASPER integrates graph structure into the score function as a new measure in the causal space, enhancing DAG structure learning via adaptive attention to DAG-ness.
result CASPER outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and robustness.

DAG-FM discovers causal relationships from heterogeneous data.

problem Challenges in causal discovery from heterogeneous causal mechanisms.
method DAG-FM uses two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules and a robust tabular interaction block to model complex row-column interactions.
result DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs (DAGs), where the joint distribution in a population follows a DAG at any single…

2019-01-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Cluster-DAGs improve causal discovery with prior knowledge.

problem Finding cause-effect relationships from high-dimensional data.
method Cluster-DAGs as prior knowledge framework, modified constraint-based algorithms Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI.
result Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI outperform baselines without prior knowledge.

Proposes a method to estimate causal effects over a range of DAGs, addressing uncertainty in prior knowledge.

problem Uncertainty in prior knowledge of causal relationships between variables.
method Gradient-based optimization method providing bounds for causal queries over a collection of causal graphs.
result Bounds achieve good coverage and sharpness for causal queries in various settings.

Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

ALIAS uses RL to learn DAGs without acyclicity constraints.

problem Efficiently learning DAGs from observational data without acyclicity constraints.
method ALIAS employs RL to generate DAGs in a single step with optimal complexity, bypassing acyclicity constraints.
result ALIAS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in causal discovery.

This paper proposes MM-DAGs for analyzing traffic congestion, learning multiple DAGs jointly.

problem Analyzing multi-modal traffic data with overlapping and distinct variables.
method Developed MM-DAGs for multi-task, multi-modal DAG learning, using multi-modal regression and CD measure.
result Proved the effectiveness of MM-DAGs in traffic congestion analysis.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) is the most common graphical model for representing causal relationships among a set of variables. When restricted to using only observational data, the structure of the ground truth DAG is identifiable only up to Markov equivalence, based on conditional independence relations among the v…

2018-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method identifies causal DAG structure from non-Gaussian errors.

problem Learning causal structure from non-Gaussian errors in Bayesian networks.
method Bayesian hierarchical model with DAG prior for non-Gaussian errors.
result Posterior DAG selection consistency achieved under mild assumptions.

This paper tackles causal interactions in mixtures of DAGs using interventions.

problem Learning causal interactions among variables governed by a mixture of causal systems.
method Establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for intervention size, designs an adaptive algorithm.
result Identifies true edges in a mixture of DAGs using optimal or near-optimal interventions.

Paper proposes a new multi-task causal Gaussian process model for better prediction and uncertainty estimation.

problem Learning causal effects of interventions on different subsets of variables in a DAG.
method DAG-GP model that allows information sharing across interventions and experiments on different variables.
result DAG-GP achieves the best fitting performance and faster optimal intervention selection compared to single-task models.

Paper develops a method to learn causal networks with non-invertible functions.

problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data with non-invertible functional relationships.
method Proposes a test for non-invertible bivariate causal models and develops a method to incorporate this test in structure learning of DAGs.
result Our algorithms outperform existing DAG learning methods in identifying causal graphical structures.

Variational Causal Networks approximate Bayesian inference over causal structures.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal structure inference from finite data.
method Parametric variational family over DAGs, using Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for tractable learning.
result Approximation of the true posterior over DAGs is demonstrated to be good.

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) model feedback causal relations in interwoven webs of causality and policy variables. FCMs are fuzzy signed directed graphs that allow degrees of causal influence and event occurrence. Such causal models can simulate a wide range of policy scenarios and decision processes. Their directed loo…

2019-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method models binary response and covariates for two groups, estimating causal relationships.

problem Estimating causal relationships between binary response and covariates in observational data.
method Gaussian DAG-probit model with MCMC sampling for posterior distribution estimation.
result Validated method on simulated and real datasets, showing value of grouping variable in causality.

TRAM-DAG models bridge interpretability and flexibility in causal modeling.

problem Modeling causal relationships in diverse data types while maintaining interpretability.
method Using transformation models (TRAMs) within structural causal models (SCMs) to handle various data types and maintain interpretability.
result TRAM-DAG models achieve equal or superior performance in causal queries across different levels of the causal hierarchy.

A new method for identifying causal directions in complex systems.

problem Identifying causal relationships in nonlinear systems with limited data.
method Sequential edge orientation approach using pairwise additive noise model.
result The method can recover true causal DAGs under nonlinear additive noise models.

The paper develops personalized DAG models for web user behavior.

problem Understanding user behavior transitions between websites with user heterogeneity and network dependency.
method Personalized Binomial DAG models with network-structured covariates, embedding network structure into a dimension-reduced covariate, learning node neighborhoods, and exploring variance-mean relation.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in heterogeneous data.

A new method uses deep learning to evaluate causal theories without strict assumptions.

problem Evaluating causal theories represented as DAGs requires arbitrary assumptions that can bias results.
method Causal-graphical normalizing flows (cGNFs) use deep neural networks to empirically evaluate DAGs without functional form assumptions.
result cGNFs allow flexible, semi-parametric estimation of causal effects from DAGs.

Paper proposes a new method to identify causal graphs with latent variables using higher-order cumulants.

problem Estimating causal directed acyclic graphs with latent confounders.
method Uses higher-order cumulants to identify causal structures among observed and latent variables.
result Validates the proposed algorithm through simulations and real-world data.

Paper introduces MN-DAG for modeling evolving causal relationships in multivariate time series.

problem Modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different scales.
method Probabilistic generative model based on spectral and causality theories, combined with Bayesian stochastic variational inference.
result MN-CASTLE outperforms baseline models in identifying causal relationships in multivariate time series data.

New methods learn DAGs from noisy data, adapting to noise levels.

problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data with noise and confounding.
method Reformulate DAG learning as a continuous optimization problem over adjacency matrices, jointly inferring structure and noise levels.
result Improved robustness to heteroscedasticity and distribution shifts.

This work presents entropic constraints from DAGs with hidden variables.

problem Characterizing causal relations in systems with hidden variables.
method Entropic inequality constraints derived from ee-separation relations.
result These constraints can learn about true causal models from observed data.

Causal inference relies on the structure of a graph, often a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Different graphs may result in different causal inference statements and different intervention distributions. To quantify such differences, we propose a (pre-) distance between DAGs, the structural intervention distance (SID). T…

2013-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

CASTLE learns causal DAG to improve model generalization.

problem Improving model generalization to out-of-sample data.
method CASTLE learns causal relationships via adjacency matrix embedded in neural network input layers, reconstructing only causal features.
result CASTLE leads to better out-of-sample predictions compared to other regularizers.

Estimates multiple related causal graphs with shared causal order.

problem Discovering multiple related Gaussian DAGs with shared causal order.
method Proposes a l1/l2l_1/l_2-regularized MLE for joint estimation of KK linear structural equation models.
result Joint estimator achieves better sample complexity and consistency in causal order recovery.

This paper presents a sequential method to identify the topological ordering of causal DAGs using likelihood ratio scores.

problem Identifying the causal relationships in a data mining scenario with ambiguity of causal directions.
method A general sequential sorting procedure that orders variables one at a time, starting at root nodes, followed by children of the root nodes, and so on until completion. Simple likelihood ratio scores are used to decide the next node to append to the current partial ordering.
result The population version of the procedure provably identifies a true ordering of the underlying DAG under mild assumptions.

New method recovers causal DAGs from general environments without strict assumptions.

problem Recovering causal DAGs from real-world data with varying distributions.
method Formalizes desiderata for causal representation learning in general environments, leveraging sufficient change conditions up to third-order derivatives.
result Fully recovers latent DAG and identifies latent variables up to minor indeterminacies under nonparametric mixing.

LOCAL learns dynamic causal structures from time series data efficiently.

problem Challenges in discovering DAG from time series data due to dynamic nature and nonlinear interactions.
method LOCAL proposes a quasi-maximum likelihood-based score function and adaptive modules ACML and DGPL.
result LOCAL significantly outperforms existing methods in dynamic causal discovery.