The paper addresses the -tangle enumeration problem. We introduce a notion of cascade diagram for -tangle projections. An effective enumeration algorithm for projections is proposed based on cascade representation. Tangles projections with up to 12 crossings are tabulated. We provide also pictures of alternating …
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48 results for “cascading effects”
Model infers diffusion networks from heterogeneous cascade data.
problem Understanding and predicting diffusion processes in interconnected populations.
method Double mixture directed graph model with layer-specific constraints.
result Convex formulation allows for statistical and computational guarantees.
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
problem Risk assessment of domino effects like earthquakes and tsunamis.
method Develops a Kolmogorov-Arnold neural network (KANE) framework.
result Estimates the probability of one extreme event triggering another.
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., …
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.
Graph Cascades rewire graphs to improve structure-aware learning.
problem Improving graph neural networks and transformers for structure-aware learning.
method Graph Cascades uses contagion-based diffusion processes to construct an auxiliary graph with reinforced edges.
result Graph Cascades improves node-classification benchmarks across various graph types.
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
problem Analyzing the fragility of information cascades in decision-making processes with imperfect knowledge of revealing probabilities.
method Examined sequential decision-making models with players having private information and imitating previous decisions. Studied the effect of a mismatch between players' beliefs and actual revealing probabilities.
result Derived closed-form expressions for optimal learning rates and identified phase transitions in the behavior of asymptotic learning rates.
Cascade classifiers are widely used in real-time object detection. Different from conventional classifiers that are designed for a low overall classification error rate, a classifier in each node of the cascade is required to achieve an extremely high detection rate and moderate false positive rate. Although there are …
CASCADE improves uncertainty communication in Parkinson's disease medication management.
problem Uncertainty in clinical decision-making for Parkinson's disease patients.
method CASCADE uses a novel conformal prediction framework to adaptively scale prediction intervals based on classification uncertainty.
result CASCADE produces more efficient and robust prediction intervals for Parkinson's disease patients.
In the 'Big Data' era, many real-world applications like search involve the ranking problem for a large number of items. It is important to obtain effective ranking results and at the same time obtain the results efficiently in a timely manner for providing good user experience and saving computational costs. Valuable …
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and c…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities (an above average tende…
We address the problem of influence maximization when the social network is accompanied by diffusion cascades. In prior works, such information is used to compute influence probabilities, which is utilized by stochastic diffusion models in influence maximization. Motivated by the recent criticism on the effectiveness o…
The paper examines clearing payments in financial networks to prevent cascaded defaults.
problem Cascaded defaults in financial networks under the proportionality rule.
method Analysis of clearing model under pro-rated payments, derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for clearing payments, convex optimization problems for computation.
result Clearing payments can be computed by solving convex optimization problems, reducing overall system loss by lifting the proportionality rule.
Strength of weak layers in cascading failures on multiplex networks: case of the international trade networkphysics.soc-ph
Many real-world complex systems across natural, social, and economical domains consist of manifold layers to form multiplex networks. The multiple network layers give rise to nonlinear effect for the emergent dynamics of systems. Especially, weak layers that can potentially play significant role in amplifying the vulne…
Developing effective and efficient recommendation methods is very challenging for modern e-commerce platforms. Generally speaking, two essential modules named "Click-Through Rate Prediction" (\textit{CTR}) and "Conversion Rate Prediction" (\textit{CVR}) are included, where \textit{CVR} module is a crucial factor that a…
This paper optimizes power grid protection settings to maximize network degradation due to cascading attacks.
problem Cascading attacks on power grids and their undetected nature.
method Constrained Bayesian Optimization applied to transmission line protection settings.
result Even limited misconfiguration of protection settings can cause severe cascading attacks.
Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved ne…
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
problem Obtaining a cascade feedback linearization for invariant control systems.
method Introducing truncated versions of operators from the calculus of variations to prove new theorems.
result Established new geometry and foundational theorems for future work.
Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number of cas…
Efficient algorithm learns Independent Cascade model from partial network observations.
problem Learning accurate spreading models from limited network data.
method Scalable dynamic message-passing approach for parameter learning.
result Improved prediction of marginal probabilities compared to original model.
New model for personalized online advertising with multi-user interaction.
problem Realistic online advertising scenarios with multiple users interacting simultaneously.
method Introduces Multi-User Contextual Cascading Bandit (MCCB) model and proposes UCBBP and AUCBBP algorithms.
result Proves UCBBP and AUCBBP achieve optimal regret bounds for multi-user context.
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way…
The scope of financial systemic risk research encompasses a wide range of interbank channels and effects, including asset correlation shocks, default contagion, illiquidity contagion, and asset fire sales. This paper introduces a financial network model that combines the default and liquidity stress mechanisms into a "…
Bipartite graphs have been used to represent data relationships in many data-mining applications such as in E-commerce recommendation systems. Since learning in graph space is more complicated than in Euclidian space, recent studies have extensively utilized neural nets to effectively and efficiently embed a graph's no…
Modeling cascading behavior in complex systems using CTBNs.
problem Understanding which states trigger cascading events in complex systems.
method Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) for modeling and identifying likely sentry states.
result Identification of likely sentry states that may lead to cascading behavior.
Motivated by the pressing need for efficient optimization in online recommender systems, we revisit the cascading bandit model proposed by Kveton et al. (2015). While Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms have been shown to be empirically superior to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms for cascading bandits, theoretica…
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
problem Financial contagion through interconnected networks.
method Dynamic model of payments with external control term for corrective cash injections.
result Targeted cash injections can significantly reduce default propagation.
Traditional works on community detection from observations of information cascade assume that a single adjacency matrix parametrizes all the observed cascades. However, in reality the connection structure usually does not stay the same across cascades. For example, different people have different topics of interest, th…
Explicit size distributions of failure cascades redefine systemic risk on finite networksphysics.soc-ph
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing informati…
A search engine usually outputs a list of web pages. The user examines this list, from the first web page to the last, and chooses the first attractive page. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. In this paper, we propose cascading bandits, a learning variant of the cascade model where the obje…
Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop the Structured Prediction Cascade architecture: a seque…
Do Cascades Recur?cs.SI
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
problem Understanding complex dynamics of opinion formation in social networks.
method Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC) model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes.
result MIC achieves superior performance in modeling information cascade spread.
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we …
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…
DICE estimates data influence cascade in decentralized learning networks.
problem Lack of fair incentives discourages participation in decentralized learning.
method Designs DICE to estimate influence cascade in decentralized networks.
result Influence cascade is influenced by data, topology, and loss landscape curvature.
In this paper, we present a new approach to learning cascaded classifiers for use in computing environments that involve networks of heterogeneous and resource-constrained, low-power embedded compute and sensing nodes. We present a generalization of the classical linear detection cascade to the case of tree-structured …
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
Non-stationarity appears in many online applications such as web search and advertising. In this paper, we study the online learning to rank problem in a non-stationary environment where user preferences change abruptly at an unknown moment in time. We consider the problem of identifying the K most attractive items and…
Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.
problem Capturing systemic risk in large, sparsely-connected financial networks.
method Dynamic particle systems with hitting times and convergence theory.
result Characterization of default time distribution in tree-like networks.
We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. …
In this paper, we present a general, multistage framework for graphical model approximation using a cascade of models such as trees. In particular, we look at the problem of covariance matrix approximation for Gaussian distributions as linear transformations of tree models. This is a new way to decompose the covariance…
Deep generative models are effective methods of modeling data. However, it is not easy for a single generative model to faithfully capture the distributions of complex data such as images. In this paper, we propose an approach for boosting generative models, which cascades meta-models together to produce a stronger mod…
A new approach reduces the size of prediction sets in CP, making it more efficient.
problem Large and costly prediction sets in standard CP.
method Expand correctness criterion to include inferred admissible answers, and use prediction cascades to prune implausible labels.
result Empirically effective in natural language processing and drug discovery.
Machine Learning models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that rely on perturbing the input data. This work proposes a novel strategy using Autoencoder Deep Neural Networks to defend a machine learning model against two gradient-based attacks: The Fast Gradient Sign attack and Fast Gradient attack. First we use an …
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.