A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method detects careless responding in long surveys.
CARD detects treatment responders with machine learning and adjustment.
AI-assisted interviews allow respondents to describe experiences naturally, but mapping those accounts into structured survey variables is fallible.
Digital personas improve survey results for stable attributes but fail for subjective responses.
Scientists develop a model to identify treatment responders from non-responders.
Generative adversarial networks fix aliasing issues by making signals continuous.
New algorithm prevents strategic replication in multi-armed bandit problems.
We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is correct. Instead, it infers the most probable world state, even if only a minority…
Responding to discussions on missing data models.
Responds to comments on Bayesian Logic Regression algorithm, provides extensions and tutorial.
Martingale Doppelgänger-Eval benchmarks VLMs on candlestick evidence vs. trend extrapolation
In the context of individual-level causal inference, we study the problem of predicting whether someone will respond or not to a treatment based on their features and past examples of features, treatment indicator (e.g., drug/no drug), and a binary outcome (e.g., recovery from disease). As a classification task, the pr…
Online surveys have the potential to support adaptive questions, where later questions depend on earlier responses. Past work has taken a rule-based approach, uniformly across all respondents. We envision a richer interpretation of adaptive questions, which we call dynamic question ordering (DQO), where question order …
Based on interviews with 28 organizations, we found that industry practitioners are not equipped with tactical and strategic tools to protect, detect and respond to attacks on their Machine Learning (ML) systems. We leverage the insights from the interviews and we enumerate the gaps in perspective in securing machine l…
We propose a novel active learning framework for activity recognition using wearable sensors. Our work is unique in that it takes physical and cognitive limitations of the oracle into account when selecting sensor data to be annotated by the oracle. Our approach is inspired by human-beings' limited capacity to respond …
Although deep convolutional networks have achieved improved performance in many natural language tasks, they have been treated as black boxes because they are difficult to interpret. Especially, little is known about how they represent language in their intermediate layers. In an attempt to understand the representatio…
This study evaluates subgroup analysis methods for time-to-event outcomes in randomized controlled trials.
Specialization and diversification are two major strategies that complex systems might exploit. Given a fixed amount of resources, the question is whether to invest this in elements that respond in a correlated manner to external perturbations, or to build a diversified system with groups of elements that respond in a …
New ensemble models classify mouse movement trajectories to assess survey question difficulty.
Process discovery has seen a rise in popularity in the last decade for both researchers and businesses. Recent developments mainly focused on the power and the functionalities of the discovery algorithm. While continuous improvement of these functional aspects is very important, non-functional aspects such as visualiza…
In this work we essentially reinterpreted the Sieczka-Hołyst (SH) model to make it more suited for description of real markets. For instance, this reinterpretation made it possible to consider agents as crafty. These agents encourage their neighbors to buy some stocks if agents have an opportunity to sell these stocks.…
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
Responds to a statistical method for policy learning.
Study optimal treatment assignment policies under strategic agent responses.
This paper provides theoretical insights into why and how deep learning can generalize well, despite its large capacity, complexity, possible algorithmic instability, nonrobustness, and sharp minima, responding to an open question in the literature. We also discuss approaches to provide non-vacuous generalization guara…
Recall assistance methods are among the key aspects that improve the accuracy of online dietary assessment surveys. These methods still mainly rely on experience of trained interviewers with nutritional background, but data driven approaches could improve cost-efficiency and scalability of automated dietary assessment.…
We consider the -ary classification problem via crowdsourcing, where crowd workers respond to simple binary questions and the answers are aggregated via decision fusion. The workers have a reject option to skip answering a question when they do not have the expertise, or when the confidence of answering that questio…
Classification algorithms have been widely adopted to detect anomalies for various systems, e.g., IoT, cloud and face recognition, under the common assumption that the data source is clean, i.e., features and labels are correctly set. However, data collected from the wild can be unreliable due to careless annotations o…
Client appraisal improves efficiency in microfinance banks in Adamawa State.
Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.
The electronic calendar is a valuable resource nowadays for managing our daily life appointments or schedules, also known as events, ranging from professional to highly personal. Researchers have studied various types of calendar events to predict smartphone user behavior for incoming mobile communications. However, th…
Noise analysis detects backdoors in DNNs quickly.
Reply to Tetlock et al. on tail risk and probability gap.
Model learns metrics and preferences from user comparisons.
The challenge in controlling stochastic systems in which low-probability events can set the system on catastrophic trajectories is to develop a robust ability to respond to such events without significantly compromising the optimality of the baseline control policy. This paper presents CelluDose, a stochastic simulatio…
Bitcoin volatility can be predicted from price and alternative data.
We propose a new efficient online algorithm to learn the parameters governing the purchasing behavior of a utility maximizing buyer, who responds to prices, in a repeated interaction setting. The key feature of our algorithm is that it can learn even non-linear buyer utility while working with arbitrary price constrain…
We consider the online one-class collaborative filtering (CF) problem that consists of recommending items to users over time in an online fashion based on positive ratings only. This problem arises when users respond only occasionally to a recommendation with a positive rating, and never with a negative one. We study t…
NIPA aims to translate brain learning mechanisms into scalable Bayesian inference.
The classification procedure of streaming data usually requires various ad hoc methods or particular heuristic models. We explore a novel non-parametric and systematic approach to analysis of heterogeneous sequential data. We demonstrate an application of this method to classification of the delays in responding to the…
Sepsis is a dangerous condition that is a leading cause of patient mortality. Treating sepsis is highly challenging, because individual patients respond very differently to medical interventions and there is no universally agreed-upon treatment for sepsis. In this work, we explore the use of continuous state-space mode…
Enhances price sentiment index using survey comments.
Investor expectations shifted pessimistically during the 2020 stock market crash and recovery.
The main aim of this paper is to inspect the properties of survey based on households inflation expectations, conducted by Reserve Bank of India. It is theorized that the respondents answers are exaggerated by extreme response bias. Latent class analysis has been hailed as a promising technique for studying measurement…
Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in the ICU. It is challenging to manage because individual patients respond differently to treatment. Thus, tailoring treatment to the individual patient is essential for the best outcomes. In this paper, we take steps toward this goal by applying a mixture-of-experts framework …
This paper examines the risk-adjusted performance and differential fund flows for socially responsible mutual funds (SRMF). The results show that SRMF rated high on ESG, perform better than lower rated ESG funds during the period of economic crisis. The findings also show that low ESG rated SRMF had higher differential…
Power plant is a complex and nonstationary system for which the traditional machine learning modeling approaches fall short of expectations. The ensemble-based online learning methods provide an effective way to continuously learn from the dynamic environment and autonomously update models to respond to environmental c…
In order to simulate the complex phenomena manifested in stock markets, we introduce a continuous asynchronous model in which millions of individual traders interact through a central orders matching mechanism, just as it happens in real stock markets. Each trader has a unique decision function, which allows him/ her t…