A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We show that when a third party, the adversary, steps into the two-party setting (agent and operator) of safely interruptible reinforcement learning, a trade-off has to be made between the probability of following the optimal policy in the limit, and the probability of escaping a dangerous situation created by the adve…
In reinforcement learning, agents learn by performing actions and observing their outcomes. Sometimes, it is desirable for a human operator to \textit{interrupt} an agent in order to prevent dangerous situations from happening. Yet, as part of their learning process, agents may link these interruptions, that impact the…
This work is a continuation of authors' research interrupted in the year 2010. Derived are recursive relations describing for the first time all infinitesimal symmetries of special 2-flags (sometimes also misleadingly called `Goursat 2-flags'). When algorithmized to the software level, they will give an answer filling …
Using public data (Forbes Global 2000) we show that the asset sizes for the largest global firms follow a Pareto distribution in an intermediate range, that is ``interrupted'' by a sharp cut-off in its upper tail, where it is totally dominated by financial firms. This flattening of the distribution contrasts with a lar…
Paper presents a novel online HAR method using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models.
problem Challenges in robust online activity recognition in smart environments.
method Two-phase approach: 1) Segmentation and activity reporting using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models, 2) Correction of labels based on statistical features.
result Proposes a method that can detect and correct interrupted activities, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
When applied to training deep neural networks, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) often incurs steady progression phases, interrupted by catastrophic episodes in which loss and gradient norm explode. A possible mitigation of such events is to slow down the learning process. This paper presents a novel approach to contro…
Economic systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is one of the first efforts to construct the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables at the global level. By viewing t…
In this paper, we develop a Markovian model that deals with the volume offered at the best quote of an electronic order book. The volume of the first limit is a stochastic process whose paths are periodically interrupted and reset to a new value, either by a new limit order submitted inside the spread or by a market or…
We propose a minimal theory of non-linear price impact based on a linear (latent) order book approximation, inspired by diffusion-reaction models and general arguments. Our framework allows one to compute the average price trajectory in the presence of a meta-order, that consistently generalizes previously proposed pro…
The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility σ measure…
We study a parsimonious but non-trivial model of the latent limit order book where orders get placed with a fixed displacement from a center price process, i.e.\ some process in-between best bid and best ask, and get executed whenever this center price reaches their level. This mechanism corresponds to the fundamental …
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where th…
To survive in the dynamically-evolving world, we accumulate knowledge and improve our skills based on experience. In the process, gaining new knowledge does not disrupt our vigilance to external stimuli. In other words, our learning process is 'accumulative' and 'online' without interruption. However, despite the recen…
We show that the statistics of spreads in real order books is characterized by an intrinsic asymmetry due to discreteness effects for even or odd values of the spread. An analysis of data from the NYSE order book points out that traders' strategies contribute to this asymmetry. We also investigate this phenomenon in th…
A framework for navigating environments with spatially correlated obstacles and uncertain blockage status.
problem Navigation in environments with spatially correlated obstacles of uncertain blockage status.
method Modeling spatial correlation with Gaussian Random Field, developing Bayesian belief updates, proposing a two-stage learning framework with offline and online phases.
result Consistent performance gains over baselines in environments with adversarial interruptions or clustered natural hazards.
This research optimizes handover between fog nodes in vehicular IoT using machine learning.
problem Smooth transition of device connections and offloaded tasks between fog nodes in vehicular IoT.
method Proposes a three-layer feed-forward neural network and a dual stacked RNN with LSTM cells to predict fog nodes and minimize service interruption.
result Achieved 99.2% accuracy in predicting fog nodes with a test set.
An important metric of users' satisfaction and engagement within on-line streaming services is the user session length, i.e. the amount of time they spend on a service continuously without interruption. Being able to predict this value directly benefits the recommendation and ad pacing contexts in music and video strea…
We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected tr…
International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy design at the national or regional level and business decision making at the fi…
In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between th…