Study strict stability of cones with isolated singularities.
problem Stability of cones with isolated singularities.
method Analyzes special Lagrangian and coassociative cones, provides examples for the complex case.
result Proves strict stability for special Lagrangian and coassociative cones.
Efficiently calibrates Bergomi models to VIX derivatives using vector quantization.
problem Calibrating Bergomi models to VIX derivatives for accurate pricing.
method Applied vector quantization in mixed Bergomi models for fast and efficient option pricing.
result Calibration of Bergomi models to VIX derivatives is feasible and accurate over daily data.
Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
New framework allows selective removal of stale data in option calibration.
problem Inability to remove old data from calibrated option pricing models without full retraining.
method Introduces operator-theoretic Gauss-Newton framework for selective forgetting.
result Provides stability guarantees and perturbation bounds for selective data removal.
Study proves stability and uniqueness for a specific type of flow.
problem Volume-preserving mean curvature flow stability and uniqueness.
method New gradient flow calibrations for volume preservation, stability estimate in distributional solutions.
result Strong solutions are calibrated and stable under certain conditions.
The paper proves stability of certain graph types in Euclidean space with specific densities.
problem Stability of vertical and radial graphs in Euclidean space with certain densities.
method Techniques of calibrations used to prove stability and minimization.
result Vertical and radial graphs are strongly stable for specific densities.
Simplified matrix generator resolves credit migration model calibration issues.
problem Fundamental difficulties in calibrating Markovian credit migration models.
method Simplified matrix generator and elementary ideas from differential geometry.
result Risk-neutral calibration requires volatility information and is unstable.
Feedback loops amplify dataset biases, affecting future model performance.
problem Feedback loops amplify biases in datasets, risking future model reliability.
method Formalized system where model interactions are recorded and reused, analyzed for bias amplification.
result Models that behave like samples from the training distribution are more stable and calibrated.
CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.
problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.
Implicit Q-learning and SARSA adjust step-sizes automatically, improving stability and performance.
problem Numerical instability and slow progress in Q-learning and SARSA due to step-size calibration.
method Reformulate iterative updates as fixed-point equations, scaling step-sizes inversely with feature norms.
result Implicit methods maintain stability over broader step-size ranges and achieve comparable convergence rates.
On a Riemannian manifold Mˉm+n with an (m+1)-calibration Ω, we prove that an m-submanifold M with constant mean curvature H and calibrated extended tangent space RH⊕TM is a critical point of the area functional for variations that preserve the enclosed Ω-volume. This recovers the …
New model predicts stock performance in large equity markets.
problem Predicting stock performance in large equity markets over long time horizons.
method Rank-based volatility stabilized models calibrated to empirical data.
result The model exhibits relative arbitrage and statistically fits empirical features.
Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
This paper explores the vol-of-vol parameter in the Heston model and its relation to VVIX.
problem Calibrating the Heston model to market data for stable exotic option pricing.
method Four approaches to estimate VVIX in the Heston model: transition density, analytical approximation, and PDE-based.
result Improved calibration stability of the Heston model using the estimated VVIX.
Develops a diagnostic framework for interest rate model calibration, showing equivalence to Weighted Least Squares and revealing boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability.
problem Calibration of stochastic interest rate models
method Diagnostic framework using non-linear regression and analytical tractability of At-The-Money caps
result Reveals boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability
New conditions for calibrated submanifolds in Riemannian geometry.
problem Characterizing calibrated submanifolds with extrinsic geometry.
method Introducing compliancy condition and analyzing extrinsic geometry.
result Conditions for extrinsic geometry of calibrated submanifolds.
We identify a strong stability condition on minimal submanifolds that implies uniqueness and dynamical stability properties. In particular, we prove a uniqueness theorem and a C^1 dynamical stability theorem of the mean curvature flow for minimal submanifolds that satisfy this condition. The latter theorem states that …
A co-evolutionary approach for Heston model calibration reduces overfitting with diverse datasets.
problem Overfitting and lack of generalization in Heston model calibration.
method Coupling a genetic algorithm with an evolving neural inverse map, using both GA-history sampling and Latin hypercube sampling.
result Diverse datasets improve out-of-sample stability and calibration accuracy.
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
Paper uses TDA to assess cryptocurrency risk by measuring phase space instability.
problem Traditional risk measures fail to capture market dynamics' geometric structure.
method Applied Takens' Delay Embedding Theorem to generate point cloud, computed persistent homology groups, defined Topological Persistence Norm.
result Proposed leverage calibration heuristic based on persistence of 1-dimensional cycles.
The paper extends Liouville's theorem to calibrated geometries in various dimensions.
problem Extending Liouville's theorem to calibrated geometries in different dimensions.
method Analyzing Sobolev mappings and calibrations in calibrated geometries.
result Calibrations in certain dimensions have the Liouville property.
New methods correct bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, but reliability depends on judge quality and model calibration.
problem Systematic bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations using naive estimators.
method Analytical results, simulations, and real-data case study to diagnose reliability of corrected estimates.
result Corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, can be unreliable under certain conditions.
New method calibrates LV surfaces for exotic derivatives with smoother, more stable Greeks.
problem Challenges in LV calibration leading to spiky surfaces and unstable Greeks.
method Automatic local regression to pre-process market observables and smooth LV surfaces.
result Significantly smoother LV surfaces and greatly improved Greek stability with negligible additional cost.
This paper enhances stability selection by evaluating overall results robustness and identifying optimal regularization values.
problem Improving the robustness and reliability of high-dimensional variable selection.
method Developed a stability estimator to evaluate stability of stability selection results, calibrating key parameters.
result Identified optimal regularization value and improved stability of variable selection.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
Observing prices of European put and call options, we calibrate exponential Lévy models nonparametrically. We discuss the efficient implementation of the spectral estimation procedures for Lévy models of finite jump activity as well as for self-decomposable Lévy models. Based on finite sample variances, confidence inte…
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
The semantic map calibrates uncertainty from language model probabilities.
problem Uncertainty in language model probabilities for professional decisions.
method Prespecified semantic map linking probabilities of verbal responses to probabilities of declared states.
result Language-derived probabilities outperform printed numerical probabilities and recover valid uncertainty coverage.
CLEAR calibrates both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for better predictive intervals.
problem Balanced uncertainty quantification for reliable predictive modeling.
method CLEAR uses two parameters, γ1 and γ2, to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Clear achieves significant improvements in interval width and coverage.
The paper proposes a neural network method to calibrate LSV models without interpolation.
problem Calibrating LSV models with market option prices using neural networks.
method Parametrizing leverage function with neural networks and learning parameters from market prices; using deep hedging for variance reduction.
result The method accurately calibrates LSV models and outperforms interpolation methods.
We study the uniqueness of minimal submanifolds and the stability of the mean curvature flow in several well-known model spaces of manifolds of special holonomy. These include the Stenzel metric on the cotangent bundle of spheres, the Calabi metric on the cotangent bundle of complex projective spaces, and the Bryant--S…
We reformulate data-dependent constraints to ensure they are always met with high probability.
problem Ensuring fairness and stability in machine learning models with data-dependent constraints.
method Calibrated reformulation of constraints to guarantee satisfaction with a specified probability.
result Our method guarantees that fairness constraints are met at test time with high probability.
The Heston stochastic volatility model is a standard model for valuing financial derivatives, since it can be calibrated using semi-analytical formulas and captures the most basic structure of the market for financial derivatives with simple structure in time-direction. However, extending the model to the case of time-…
A new method improves SNPE for intractable likelihood models.
problem Simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Adaptive calibration kernel and variance reduction techniques.
result The proposed method provides a better approximation of the posterior.
DCNN improves volatility smile and skewness calibration without arbitrage constraints.
problem Calibrating volatility smile and skewness surfaces with no arbitrage constraints.
method Derivative-Constrained Neural Network (DCNN) incorporating derivatives in the loss function.
result DCNN generates a smooth surface that satisfies no-arbitrage conditions.
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
An innovative method optimizes engine calibration to improve efficiency and reduce emissions.
problem Complex engines with many tunable parameters require efficient calibration methods.
method Combines Principal Component Decomposition with constrained Bayesian Optimization to minimize pressure curve deviation.
result Optimal engine calibration found after 64.4s with a 0.017% efficiency gain.
Proteins are commonly used by biochemical industry for numerous processes. Refining these proteins' properties via mutations causes stability effects as well. Accurate computational method to predict how mutations affect protein stability are necessary to facilitate efficient protein design. However, accuracy of predic…
Unified model for equity option pricing and interest-rate risk assessment.
problem Pricing short and medium-term equity options and interest-rate risk.
method Developed a stochastic modeling framework using Heston, Bates, and CIR models, calibrated using Fourier inversion and FFT.
result Calibration stability and convergence of parameter sets across models.
Proposes a method to stabilize treatment effect estimation with unbalanced data.
problem Unbalanced treatment assignment leading to unstable propensity score estimations.
method Undersamples data for propensity score modeling and calibrates scores to match original distribution.
result The estimator retains asymptotic properties of the DML estimator and improves finite sample performance.
Efficiently simulates and calibrates the rough Bergomi model using Wasserstein distance.
problem High computational complexity in pricing and calibration of the rough Bergomi model.
method Developed a modified-sum-of-exponentials Monte Carlo scheme and a calibration approach based on Wasserstein-1 distance.
result The method achieves high pricing accuracy and improved parameter recovery, optimization stability, and out-of-sample performance.
Motivated by the model- independent pricing of derivatives calibrated to the real market, we consider an optimization problem similar to the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem, where the embedded Brownian motion needs only to reproduce a finite number of prices of Vanilla options. We derive in this paper the correspon…
VMoER improves uncertainty quantification in MoE layers for scalable foundation models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in large-scale models like MoE layers.
method Structured Bayesian approach with amortized variational inference over routing logits and temperature parameter inference.
result Improves routing stability, reduces calibration error, and increases AUROC by 12%.
CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.
problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.
New method calibrates MQHawkes model using non-parametric approach, identifying cross-Hawkes and cross-leverage effects.
problem Calibrating complex Hawkes processes with non-parametric methods.
method Non-parametric calibration using General Method of Moments on coarse-grained MQHawkes model.
result Identification of cross-Hawkes and cross-leverage effects in futures markets.
A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.
problem Sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence in intermittent demand forecasting.
method Hierarchical Bayesian TSB model with partial pooling and calibrated probabilistic configuration.
result TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE on the UCI Online Retail dataset.
Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.
problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.
Novel method for estimating SIRD model parameters and forecasting COVID-19 deaths in Poland.
problem Estimating epidemiological parameters for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Poland.
method Modified SIRD model, GPU architecture for computation.
result Effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method.