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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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84167251334 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for calibrated subset selection

New framework allows selective removal of stale data in option calibration.

problem Inability to remove old data from calibrated option pricing models without full retraining.
method Introduces operator-theoretic Gauss-Newton framework for selective forgetting.
result Provides stability guarantees and perturbation bounds for selective data removal.

New method improves reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted treatment effects.

problem Reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is unreliable.
method Denoised Conformal Alignment, combining proxy errors, variance estimation, and Benjamini-Hochberg selection.
result Significantly improved power in selecting individuals while maintaining false discovery rate control.

This work evaluates and benchmarks calibration metrics for data-driven regression models.

problem Conflicting results from different calibration metrics make it hard to compare and interpret model performance.
method Systematically extracted and benchmarked 14 regression calibration metrics across various data types and recalibration methods.
result Many metrics disagree on the same recalibration result, highlighting the need for careful metric selection.

New method for selective prediction under interventions learns causal structure from data.

problem Tight uncertainty sets in selective conformal prediction under unknown interventional settings.
method Partial causal structure learning for descendant indicators, contamination-robust coverage theorem, algorithms for descendant discovery and distance estimation.
result Valid selective conformal prediction under contamination up to 30% with controlled coverage.

A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.

problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.

Improves model calibration and selection in unsupervised domain adaptation.

problem Distribution shifts in unsupervised domain adaptation.
method Developed a novel importance weighted group accuracy estimator.
result Improves state-of-the-art performances by 22% in model calibration and 14% in model selection.

The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.

problem Online selective conformal prediction's exchangeability issues and false coverage rate control problems.
method Evaluation and correction of existing calibration selection strategies, proposing new ones that preserve exchangeability.
result Novel calibration selection strategies ensure both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control.

Nested dichotomies are used as a method of transforming a multiclass classification problem into a series of binary problems. A tree structure is induced that recursively splits the set of classes into subsets, and a binary classification model learns to discriminate between the two subsets of classes at each node. In …

2018-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

MCNet improves uncertainty calibration in online advertising by modeling complex relations and balancing performance.

problem Lack of effective calibration for complex relations and context features in online advertising.
method Introduces MCNet with MCF, order-preserving, and field-balance regularizers.
result Superior performance in generating well-calibrated probability predictions on public and industrial datasets.

This paper improves volatility forecasting using dynamic subset selection in genetic programming.

problem Improving accuracy of implied volatility forecasting.
method Dynamic training-subset selection methods applied to genetic programming.
result Dynamic subset selection improves predictive accuracy of genetic programming models.

Given a parallel calibration φΩp(M)φ\in Ω^p(M) on a Riemannian manifold MM, I prove that the φφ--critical submanifolds with nonzero critical value are minimal submanifolds. I also show that the φφ--critical submanifolds are precisely the integral manifolds of a C(M)\mathscr{C}^\infty(M)--linear subspace $\sP \subset Ω^p(M…

2008-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper calibrates Gaussian process predictive distributions for Bayesian optimization to improve sampling decisions.

problem Lower-tail miscalibration in GP predictive distributions affects BO sampling decisions.
method Introduces goal-oriented calibration for GP predictive distributions below a threshold tt.
result Post-hoc method tcGP improves lower-tail calibration and BO performance.

One-pass algorithm finds small subset for p\ell_p subspace approximation with additive error.

problem Finding a small subset of data points for p\ell_p subspace approximation.
method One-pass subset selection with additive approximation guarantee for p[1,)p \in [1, \infty).
result First one-pass algorithm with additive error for p\ell_p subspace approximation.

The paper constructs calibrated submanifolds in Euclidean spaces with specific symmetries.

problem Finding calibrated submanifolds in Euclidean spaces with given symmetries.
method Constructing submanifolds invariant under Lie group actions and using specific ansatzes.
result Explicitly determined special Lagrangian submanifolds and rigidity results.

Bayesian approach selects subsets of variables for interpretable prediction and identifies key factors in educational outcomes.

problem Challenges in subset selection for stability, regularization, and inference.
method Bayesian perspective on subset selection, deriving optimal subsets and variable importance metrics.
result Better prediction, interval estimation, and variable selection compared to competing methods.

BWS selects best window subsets for efficient data pruning.

problem Challenges in selecting subsets of large datasets for neural network training.
method Best Window Selection (BWS) by choosing optimal window intervals from ordered sample scores.
result BWS outperforms other methods across various selection ratios and datasets.

We study consistency properties of surrogate loss functions for general multiclass learning problems, defined by a general multiclass loss matrix. We extend the notion of classification calibration, which has been studied for binary and multiclass 0-1 classification problems (and for certain other specific learning pro…

2014-08-12abs ↗pdf ↗

New MCMC algorithm reduces subset selection passes to 2 for optimal kk-dimensional subspace approximation.

problem Subset selection for kk-dimensional subspace approximation with εε-approximation.
method MCMC sampling algorithm reducing passes to 2 for p=2p=2 case, poly(k/ε) size subset.
result Subset selection of nearly optimal size in 2 passes, (1+ε)(1+ε) approximation.

New algorithm finds best subset in high-dimensional data models.

problem Finding the best subset of predictors in high-dimensional data models.
method Proposes a scalable algorithm using a generalized information criterion.
result Directly proves consistency and oracle property for the best-subset selection.

Efficiently selects predictors in sparse regression without approximations.

problem High computational cost in subset selection for sparse regression.
method Conditional uncorrelation formula and efficient non-approximate method.
result Significant reduction in computational complexity for subset selection.

New suboptimal algorithm for best subset selection in high-dimensional data.

problem Nonconvex and computationally challenging best subset selection in linear regression.
method Introducing a new suboptimal algorithm and comparing it with other popular methods.
result The new procedure is a competitive suboptimal algorithm for high-dimensional data.

ECCIT improves conditional independence tests by calibrating for miscalibration.

problem Inaccurate frequentist guarantees in CITs, especially in small samples and misspecified models.
method Empirically Calibrated Conditional Independence Tests (ECCIT) that optimize and correct for miscalibration.
result ECCIT achieves valid FDR with higher power than existing calibration strategies.

A fast algorithm selects best subsets in high-dimensional models.

problem Identifying sparse models in high-dimensional generalized linear models.
method Splicing technique for fast and consistent best subset selection.
result Our algorithm achieves high certainty in selecting best subsets with polynomial computational complexity.

Proposes a neural framework to select subsets efficiently across different models.

problem Lack of generalizability in subset selection methods for unseen architectures.
method Introduces a trainable subset selection framework, SubSelNet, that uses attention-based neural gadgets and subset samplers.
result SubSelNet generalizes across architectures and outperforms existing methods.

Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.

problem Challenges of handling asymmetric selection mechanisms in online selective conformal prediction.
method PEMI: permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules.
result Achieves exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model.

The paper develops an algorithm to select a subset of training data for efficient regression models.

problem Designing an efficient algorithm for selecting a subset of training data to train regression models quickly without sacrificing accuracy.
method The paper tackles this problem by formulating it as a minimization of training loss with respect to both trainable parameters and subset of training data, subject to error bounds on the validation set. They use a novel problem formulation and represent it with simplified constraints using the dual of the original training problem. They then develop SELCON, an efficient majorization-minimization algorithm for data subset selection, which admits an approximation guarantee.
result The experiments show that SELCON trades off accuracy and efficiency more effectively than the current state-of-the-art.

Algorithm selects variables and bandwidths for geographically weighted regression.

problem Estimating variable subsets and bandwidths for geographically weighted regression.
method Mathematical programming-based approach integrating variable selection and bandwidth estimation.
result Proposed algorithm provides stable spatially varying patterns with competitive explanatory power.