LemonadeBench evaluates LLMs' economic intuition through a simulated lemonade stand.
problem Evaluating LLMs' economic understanding and decision-making in simple markets.
method Simulated lemonade stand business to test LLMs' long-term planning and profit maximization.
result Models achieve profitability but exhibit local rather than global optimization.
We have created a framework for analyzing subscription based businesses in terms of a unified metric which we call SCV (single customer value). The major advance in this paper is to model customer churn as an exponential decay variable, which directly follows from experimental data relating to subscription based busine…
This study integrates cost-sensitive and causal classification methods.
problem Improving classification model performance in business decision-making.
method A unifying evaluation framework for cost-sensitive and causal classification.
result Conventional classification is a specific case of causal classification.
Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behav…
The paper proposes a ML workflow for B2B sales prediction.
problem Predicting business to business sales outcomes using subjective human evaluations.
method A two-pipeline ML approach on Azure ML, including data enrichment and model training.
result ML predictions improve accuracy and increase sales value.
Extends expected value framework for cost-sensitive causal decision-making.
problem Optimizing operational decision-making with cost-sensitive causal classification.
method Introduces a cost-sensitive decision boundary based on estimated individual treatment effects, positive outcome probability, and cost parameters.
result Effective in maximizing expected causal profit, outperforming cost-insensitive ranking approach.
Develops a Bayesian model to predict business revenue and demand.
problem Estimating revenue and demand at business facilities.
method Variational Bayesian spatial interaction model (BSIM) with scalable inference.
result BSIM outperforms competing approaches in predicting pub revenue and demand.
Deep learning faces adoption challenges in business analytics.
problem Adoption of deep learning in business analytics is hindered by various factors.
method Empirical study based on three industry use cases.
result Gradient boosting is recommended for structured datasets in business analytics.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
In this paper, based on theories of complex adaptive systems, I argue that the main case for antitrust policy should be extended to include the criteria of "evolvability." To date, the main case focuses on economizing, including market power as a key filter for identifying suspect cases. Both production and transaction…
Paper quarantines unreliable Yelp users by detecting review spam.
problem Unreliable and spamming users deceive Yelp's users.
method Used RSD and spam detection techniques on key features.
result More than 80% of Yelp's accounts are unreliable, and highly-rated businesses are often spammed.
Graph Neural Networks improve demand forecasting by considering article relationships.
problem Forecasting independent article-level predictions without considering related articles.
method Integrating GNN encoder into DeepAR model and using article attribute similarity to build graphs.
result The proposed approach consistently outperforms non-graph benchmarks and produces useful article embeddings.
Uber optimizes marketplace levers using machine learning to improve resource allocation efficiency.
problem Optimizing budget allocation for drivers and riders to maximize business value.
method End-to-end machine learning and optimization procedure using feature store, model training, and ADMM.
result Substantially improved Uber's resource allocation efficiency through high-dimensional optimization.
A method for fast, accurate cross-temporal forecasts using machine learning.
problem Inconsistent forecasts across different levels of platform data.
method Non-linear hierarchical forecast reconciliation using machine learning.
result Automated direct production of reconciled forecasts for high-frequency decision making.
Educational game on crypto investment helps students grasp macroeconomics.
problem Weak connections between microeconomic decision-making and macroeconomic concepts in classroom games.
method Design and study of an educational game on cryptocurrency investment.
result Engages students in understanding macroeconomics through incentivized individual investment decisions.
Study proposes a novel local explanation method for deep learning classifiers in process mining.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for process mining.
method Defines local regions using latent space representations and visualizes explanations.
result Deep learning classifier achieves high performance and local explanations increase user trust.
CDM and CEE differ; accurate CEE isn't needed for CDM.
problem Understanding the difference between CDM and CEE.
method Highlighting the distinctions and implications of CDM and CEE.
result Accurate CEE is not necessary for accurate CDM.
The paper optimizes A/B tests by balancing lift and cost in large-scale settings.
problem Balancing lift and cost in A/B tests for large-scale experimentation.
method Empirical Bayes approach using a greedy knapsack algorithm to rank experiments based on lift-to-cost ratio, incorporating local false discovery rate (lfdr).
result The proposed method maximizes expected profit while controlling false discovery rate, demonstrating superior performance in large-scale settings.
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
New fairness criterion for risk-sensitive decisions in regulated industries.
problem Ensuring equitable outcomes in risk-sensitive decision-making.
method Marginal fairness for generalized distortion risk measures, two-step decision-making process.
result Ensures fairness in decision-making under risk measures, regardless of protected attributes.
Paper assesses risks of stablecoins, from lending to business-to-business.
problem Credit risks in decentralized stablecoin issuance.
method Examines mechanisms, risks, and mitigation strategies at each layer.
result Potential for scaling stablecoins while maintaining systemic health.
HL algorithms improve resource allocation in cloud environments.
problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with exogenous variables.
method HL algorithms leverage exogenous variable samples to infer counterfactual consequences.
result HL algorithms outperform classic methods and reinforcement learning in resource allocation.
ARTEO algorithm optimizes safety-critical systems with uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with safety constraints in real-time optimization.
method ARTEO algorithm uses multi-armed bandits as a mathematical programming problem subject to safety constraints, learning unknown characteristics through exploration and incorporating uncertainty quantification.
result ARTEO achieves less cumulative regret with accurate and safe decisions.
The paper proposes a policy learning framework for interpretable personalization.
problem Effective personalization of goods and services to improve revenues and maintain competitive edge.
method Policy learning with linear decision boundaries using causal inference and Bayesian optimization.
result The learned policy improves net sales revenue by 88.2% and provides insights into important features.
A main driver behind the digitization of industry and society is the belief that data-driven model building and decision making can contribute to higher degrees of automation and more informed decisions. Building such models from data often involves the application of some form of machine learning. Thus, there is an ev…
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
Study shows credit expansion in mortgage markets influenced U.S. business cycle.
problem Lack of causal evidence in cross-country business cycle studies.
method Unique research design combining cross-metropolitan U.S. data.
result Credit expansion caused stronger booms and busts in house-related industries.
Business Architecture (BA) plays a significant role in helping organizations understand enterprise structures and processes, and align them with strategic objectives. However, traditional BAs are represented in fixed structure with static model elements and fail to dynamically capture business insights based on interna…
This paper deals with the explicit design of strategy formulations to make the best strategic choices from a conventional matrix form of representing strategic choices. The explicit strategy formulation is an analytical model which is targeted to provide a mathematical strategy framework to find the best moment for str…
Modern predictive analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-driven decision making. In the context of business process management, predictive analytics has been applied to making predictions about the future state of an ongoing business process instance, for…
Study evaluates sustainability of European banks using a new model.
problem Lack of a framework to evaluate sustainability of banking business models.
method Delphi-Analytic Hierarchy Process method to develop and assess the model.
result Norwegian and German banks have higher sustainability of their business models.
Bayesian model uses mobile data to assess business resilience after hurricanes.
problem Evaluating economic impact of extreme shocks on businesses.
method Bayesian structural time series model with mobile phone data.
result Estimates business resilience after hurricanes, revealing key characteristics.
Modeling business expansion as a stochastic control problem, the study finds that firms are incentivized to expand but may wait.
problem Optimizing business expansion under exposure constraints and opportunity costs.
method Formulated as a novel stochastic control problem combined with optimal stopping time, derived an explicit solution for exponential utility.
result Firms are incentivized to expand but may wait due to opportunity costs and other factors.
The biggest problem with the methods of machine learning used today in business analytics is that they do not generalize well and often fail when applied to new data. One of the possible approaches to this problem is to enrich these methods (which are almost exclusively based on statistical algorithms) with some intrin…
Study examines European banks' digital transformation strategies.
problem Lack of a common framework for open banking innovation in banking sector.
method Qualitative analysis of partnerships and API development.
result European banks are diversifying and boosting customer relationship management.
AI enhances refinery optimization by detecting data errors and improving decision-making.
problem Interpreting and applying LP solutions for refinery optimization is challenging due to simplifications and data errors.
method Transformed ECOD methodology, Anomaly Detection tools, and high-dimensional data analysis.
result Identifies data supply errors and reveals business opportunities in refinery scheduling and planning.
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the business cycle phases in US and EuroZone.
method Three machine learning approaches were compared: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) achieved the best results.
result MLR achieved 65.25% accuracy for EuroZone and 75% for US in predicting business cycle phases.
The analysis of the theoretical material revealed the lack of consensus on defini-tion of the tax stimulation of innovation-active business entities within the re-gional taxation. The definition tax stimulation of innovation-active business en-tities is specified.
Business taxonomies are indispensable tools for investors to do equity research and make professional decisions. However, to identify the structure of industry sectors in an emerging market is challenging for two reasons. First, existing taxonomies are designed for mature markets, which may not be the appropriate class…
Examines international taxation's impact on Georgian businesses.
problem Impact of international taxation on Georgian business entities.
method Analyzes types, features, and approaches of international taxation.
result Provides recommendations to correct current taxation issues.
CONDA-PM framework helps analyze concept drift in business processes.
problem Analyzing changes in business processes over time.
method Systematic Literature Review and framework development.
result Highlights areas needing research to complement existing efforts.
The study uses CoDa to analyze family business financial ratios, highlighting methodological issues.
problem Asymmetry, non-normality, and non-linearity in financial ratios of family businesses.
method Compositional data analysis (CoDa) and classical analysis strategies.
result Results are sensitive to the methodology used, emphasizing the need for appropriate methodologies.
Study examines how business units can benefit from group cohesion under regulatory constraints.
problem Regulatory constraints limit business units' ability to form a single cohesive group.
method Defined and analyzed cohesive risk measures to minimize capital costs.
result Cohesive risk measures allow groups to achieve minimal capital costs without altering individual liabilities.
This paper studies business cycle patterns in UK sectoral output. It analyzes the distinction between white noise processes and their non-white noise counterparts in the frequency domain and further examines the associated features and patterns for the process where white noise conditions are violated. The characterist…
Paper uses RL to estimate long-term treatment effects efficiently.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects in nonstationary settings.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Markov processes.
result Demonstrated promising results in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Development of efficient business process models and determination of their characteristic properties are subject of intense interdisciplinary research. Here, we consider a business process model as a directed graph. Its nodes correspond to the units identified by the modeler and the link direction indicates the causal…