New estimator optimizes black-box model errors in semiparametric estimation.
problem How nuisance estimation errors affect low-dimensional target parameters in semiparametric models.
method Proposed a new estimator achieving a sharper rate of convergence.
result The first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated.
Optimal first-order methods are shown to be fundamental limits in functional estimation.
problem Optimal functional estimation under weak conditions.
method Formalization of functional estimation with black-box nuisance function estimates and derivation of minimax lower bounds.
result First-order methods are optimal under weak conditions, but higher-order methods can outperform them when nuisance function structure is known.
Theory establishes optimal rates for estimating linear functionals without structural assumptions.
problem Estimating linear functionals of unknown nuisance components without structural assumptions.
method Structure-agnostic framework, doubly robust estimators, first-order debiasing.
result Characterization of minimax optimal rates and regimes for double robustness.
New method estimates and optimizes policy differences using orthogonal learning.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with safety concerns and cost limitations.
method Dynamic R-learner for estimating and optimizing Q π ( s , 1 ) − Q π ( s , 0 ) Q^π(s,1)-Q^π(s,0) Q π ( s , 1 ) − Q π ( s , 0 ) , leveraging orthogonal estimation. result Consistent policy optimization with improved convergence rates.
Optimally estimates a functional using nuisance function tuning and sample splitting.
problem Estimating optimal rates for a doubly robust functional.
method Combines nuisance function tuning and sample splitting strategies.
result Shows optimal rates of convergence for various estimators.
New methods improve estimation accuracy in noisy settings.
problem Estimating treatment effects in the presence of treatment noise.
method Developed new structure-agnostic cumulant estimators and practical procedures for higher-order robustness.
result Demonstrated that existing DML estimator is suboptimal for non-Gaussian treatment noise and introduced ACE procedures for improved accuracy.
New method for inference on strongly identified functionals even when nuisance functions are weakly identified.
problem Inference on continuous linear functionals of weakly identified nuisance functions defined by conditional moment restrictions.
method Proposes penalized minimax estimators for both the primary and debiasing nuisance functions, which can converge to fixed limits regardless of nuisance identifiability.
result Proves the asymptotic normality of a debiased estimator for the functional of interest, leading to asymptotically valid confidence intervals.
Optimal tuning for estimating ECC in proportional asymptotics.
problem Estimating Expected Conditional Covariance (ECC) under proportional asymptotics.
method Debiased ridge regression estimators for nuisance functions, sample splitting strategies, and asymptotic variance analysis.
result Prediction-optimal tuning parameters may not minimize asymptotic variance of ECC estimator.
DML addresses biases in machine learning by estimating nuisance functions.
problem Bias in machine learning models due to nuisance functions.
method Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) approach to reduce biases.
result DML allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions without auxiliary assumptions.
DeepMed uses DNNs to estimate causal mediation effects without sparsity constraints.
problem Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis.
method DeepMed employs deep neural networks to cross-fit infinite-dimensional nuisance functions.
result DeepMed achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and adapts to low-dimensional nuisance structures.
We consider inference about a scalar parameter under a non-parametric model based on a one-step estimator computed as a plug in estimator plus the empirical mean of an estimator of the parameter's influence function. We focus on a class of parameters that have influence function which depends on two infinite dimensiona…
We consider estimating a low-dimensional parameter in an estimating equation involving high-dimensional nuisances that depend on the parameter. A central example is the efficient estimating equation for the (local) quantile treatment effect ((L)QTE) in causal inference, which involves as a nuisance the covariate-condit…
Corrects mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators for doubly robust methods.
problem Mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators in doubly robust methods.
method Calibrated debiased machine learning (calibrated DML) with isotonic regression adjustment.
result Calibrated DML yields doubly robust asymptotic normality with slower convergence of nuisance estimators.
Paper proves optimality of doubly robust estimators for treatment effects.
problem Estimating treatment effects in causal inference.
method Structure-agnostic framework of statistical lower bounds, using non-parametric regression and classification oracles.
result Doubly robust estimators are statistically optimal for ATE and ATT.
Extends robust methods for causal inference, improving estimator performance.
problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of latent confounders.
method Minimax kernel machine learning for doubly robust functionals.
result Proposed method leads to robust and high-performance estimators.
New method improves robustness of double robust estimators under complete misspecification.
problem Improper performance of double robust estimators when all nuisance functions are misspecified.
method DR+ACC, an adaptive correction clipping method.
result DR+ACC ensures bounded error and maintains semiparametric efficiency.
A framework for private causal effect estimation without structural assumptions.
problem Estimating causal effects from private observational data.
method Model-agnostic framework that privatizes predictions and aggregation steps.
result Maintains competitive performance under realistic privacy budgets.
Optimal CATE estimation with structured contrast functions using KRR.
problem Estimating CATEs with complex response functions in RKHS.
method Unified two-stage kernel ridge regression method for structured contrast functions.
result Minimax rates governed by contrast function complexity, enabling adaptation.
Paper introduces DRM for selecting robust CATE estimators.
problem Selecting CATE estimators without counterfactual outcomes.
method Distributionally Robust Metric (DRM) for CATE estimator selection.
result DRM selects robust CATE estimators robust to distribution shift.
A new framework evaluates HTE estimators using relative error.
problem Lack of robust evaluation methods for HTE estimators.
method Proposes a relative error-based evaluation framework and neural network architecture to estimate nuisance parameters and robustly compare HTE estimators.
result Demonstrates reliable comparisons and improved HTE estimation through the proposed framework and learning algorithm.
We propose the orthogonal random forest, an algorithm that combines Neyman-orthogonality to reduce sensitivity with respect to estimation error of nuisance parameters with generalized random forests (Athey et al., 2017)--a flexible non-parametric method for statistical estimation of conditional moment models using rand…
The paper uses neural networks to estimate treatment effects even with many confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects with a growing number of confounders.
method General optimization framework using neural networks to approximate nuisance functions.
result Neural networks can handle a diverging number of confounders and alleviate the curse of dimensionality.
New method uses transport maps for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters.
method Estimation of structured transport maps to extract conditional distributions.
result Gradient-based characterization of posterior density for online parameter estimation.
New method uses MMD estimators to enforce model invariance with missing data.
problem Models trained on missing data can fail on related test distributions.
method Derives MMD estimators for enforcing model invariance under missing nuisances.
result Optimizing through MMD estimates achieves similar test performance to using full data.
A new method debiases multiple target parameters without IFs.
problem Debiasing multiple target parameters in nonparametric models.
method Kernel Debiased Plug-in Estimation (KDPE) using TMLE and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KDPE simultaneously debiases all pathwise differentiable target parameters.
While model selection is a well-studied topic in parametric and nonparametric regression or density estimation, selection of possibly high-dimensional nuisance parameters in semiparametric problems is far less developed. In this paper, we propose a selective machine learning framework for making inferences about a fini…
Proposes efficient estimators for weighted cumulative treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Inconsistent and inefficient estimators due to model misspecification and lack of overlap.
method Double/debiased machine learning for weighted cumulative causal effects.
result Proposed estimators are consistent, asymptotically linear, and reach semiparametric efficiency bounds.
We provide non-asymptotic excess risk guarantees for statistical learning in a setting where the population risk with respect to which we evaluate the target parameter depends on an unknown nuisance parameter that must be estimated from data. We analyze a two-stage sample splitting meta-algorithm that takes as input ar…
Bayesian active learning tackles nuisance parameters, leading to bias and dilemmas.
problem Bayesian active learning with nuisance parameters leads to bias and dilemmas.
method Characterizes and mitigates negative interference by accurately estimating nuisance parameters.
result The extent of negative interference can be extremely large, and accurate estimation of nuisance parameters is critical.
Bayesian method corrects bias in treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
method Bayesian debiasing, targeted modeling, sample splitting.
result Marginal posterior for ATE satisfies Bernstein-von Mises theorem under correct nuisance model specification.
Proposes debiasing strategy for ill-posed regression problems.
problem Estimating functions with conditional moment restrictions, especially when estimators are sensitive to misspecification.
method Debiased estimation using influence function of modified mean squared error.
result Demonstrates finite-sample convergence rate and robustness to misspecification.
This paper proposes a Lasso-type estimator for a high-dimensional sparse parameter identified by a single index conditional moment restriction (CMR). In addition to this parameter, the moment function can also depend on a nuisance function, such as the propensity score or the conditional choice probability, which we es…
Improved estimators for causal inference using cross-fitting and undersmoothing.
problem Estimating expected conditional covariance in causal inference.
method Double cross-fit doubly robust (DCDR) estimators with undersmoothing for non-smooth nuisance functions.
result DCDR estimators achieve n \sqrt{n} n -consistency and asymptotic normality under minimal conditions. Framework for multi-task learning with semiparametric models and nuisance parameters.
problem Improving parameter estimation from diverse, heterogeneous datasets.
method Late fusion multi-task learning framework with two-step process: individual task learning followed by adaptive aggregation.
result The method achieves faster convergence rates compared to individual task learning when tasks share similar parametric components.
We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for by estimating a nuisance function. Here we develop a method that eliminates the …
A new method estimates treatment effects across multiple studies considering differences.
problem Estimating treatment effects across multiple studies with varying conditions.
method The multi-study R-learner framework that accounts for between-study heterogeneity.
result The multi-study R-learner is more efficient and normal than existing methods in the presence of heterogeneity.
New method stabilizes IF-based estimators for causal mediation analysis with continuous mediators.
problem Stability issues in IF-based estimators for continuous mediators.
method Nonparametric weighted balancing method to estimate nuisance functions.
result Significant reductions in bias and variance compared to existing methods.
A TCL framework improves causal effect estimation in limited data.
problem Improving causal effect estimation accuracy in limited data.
method Transfer Learning (TCL) with ℓ1 regularization for nuisance models.
result Non-asymptotic recovery guarantees for exttt{ ℓ 1 \ell_1 ℓ 1 -TCL} in high-dimensional settings. Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.
problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.
CNN improves causal inference by controlling time-structured covariates.
problem Estimating the effect of early retirement on health outcomes while controlling for time-structured covariates.
method Used CNN to fit nuisance models explaining treatment and outcome, combining them into an augmented inverse probability weighting estimator.
result Uniformly valid inference achieved through CNN, providing rates of convergence and uniformly valid inference guarantees.
This guide simplifies high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization.
problem High-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization.
method Modular presentation, three-step recipe, localized Rademacher complexity, local maximal inequalities, metric-entropy integrals.
result Recover familiar rates for various function classes and derive regret bounds for nuisance components.
The consistency of doubly robust estimators relies on consistent estimation of at least one of two nuisance regression parameters. In moderate to large dimensions, the use of flexible data-adaptive regression estimators may aid in achieving this consistency. However, n 1 / 2 n^{1/2} n 1/2 -consistency of doubly robust estimators is…
Proposes a robust Q-learning method to improve treatment strategy estimation.
problem Misspecification of working models in Q-learning leads to confounding and efficiency loss.
method Uses data-adaptive techniques to estimate nuisance parameters robustly.
result Asymptotic behavior of robust Q-learning estimators is studied and shown to be useful.
New method corrects biased predictions and uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
problem Tackles biased predictions and invalid uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
method Proposes a method that estimates ROC across the entire nuisance parameter space to devise invariant cutoffs.
result Demonstrates effective domain adaptation and valid prediction sets with high power.
We develop efficient and sharp bounds on policy value under perturbations in MDPs.
problem Evaluating policies under best- and worst-case perturbations in MDPs with transition observations.
method Proposed a perturbation model for MDPs, developed semiparametrically efficient estimator with asymptotic normality.
result Semiparametrically efficient and asymptotically normal estimator for policy value bounds.
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating parameters from data collected adaptively leads to non-normal asymptotic distributions.
method We develop semi-parametric estimators that account for adaptivity in data collection.
result Our estimators are asymptotically normal under certain conditions.
Improves statistical learning bounds with self-concordant losses.
problem Statistical prediction with nuisance components.
method Orthogonal statistical learning with self-concordant loss.
result Non-asymptotic bounds on excess risk improved by a dimension factor.
AutoBayes automates Bayesian graph exploration for robust machine learning.
problem Learning representations invariant to nuisance variations in machine learning.
method Automated Bayesian inference framework exploring different graphical models.
result Significant performance improvement with nuisance-invariant machine learning pipelines.