Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
problem Limitations of likelihood-free inference on black-box generators.
method Adversarial Likelihood-Free Inference (ALFI) to estimate posterior distributions.
result ALFI achieves best parameter estimation accuracy with limited simulation.
VBMC combines variational inference and Bayesian quadrature for efficient posterior and model evidence estimation.
problem Efficient inference for models with expensive, black-box likelihoods.
method Combines variational inference with Gaussian-process based active-sampling Bayesian quadrature.
result Produces both a nonparametric approximation of the posterior and an approximate lower bound of the model evidence efficiently.
New variational bounds improve posterior covariances and likelihoods.
problem Improving variational inference with different divergence measures.
method Applying variational perturbation theory to construct new variational bounds.
result New variational bounds lead to more accurate posterior covariances and higher likelihoods.
Develops black-box methods to estimate parameters of complex models.
problem Lack of efficient methods to produce simulations for complex statistical models.
method Pre-training deep neural networks on extensive simulated databases for well-structured likelihoods. Iterative algorithm for other complex dependencies.
result Successfully estimates and quantifies uncertainty of parameters from non-Gaussian models.
New bounds show BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, improving parameterization efficiency.
problem Understanding and improving the convergence of black-box variational inference (BBVI).
method Showed BBVI satisfies matching gradient variance bounds corresponding to the ABC condition for smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods.
result Proven BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, with superior dimensional dependence for mean-field parameterization.
Improves likelihood-free inference for high-dimensional data.
problem Efficient inference for complex models with high-dimensional data.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for data-driven summary features.
result Significant improvement in scalability and handling complex distributions.
This work improves neural likelihood surrogates for stochastic models with a score-augmented loss.
problem Efficient parameter inference for stochastic models with computationally expensive likelihood functions.
method Score-augmented loss function for neural network likelihood surrogates.
result Improves surrogate quality at a lower computational cost compared to generating more data.
A new method learns latent variable updates directly, not approximating the posterior.
problem Intractable maximum-likelihood learning for complex latent-variable models.
method Amortised learning using wake-sleep Monte-Carlo strategy.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on various complex models.
VBMC+VIQR outperforms noisy models in Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference with noisy likelihoods in complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogates, expected information gain, variational interquantile range.
result VBMC+VIQR achieves state-of-the-art performance in noisy inference benchmarks.
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
problem Extending Bayesian optimization to a broader class of models and utilities.
method Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization (LFBO) which directly models the acquisition function without separate inference.
result LFBO outperforms state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on real-world problems.
Automated variational method for GP models with scalable inference.
problem Efficient inference in models with Gaussian process priors and general likelihoods.
method Automated variational method using mixture of Gaussians, scalable via inducing variables and parallel computation.
result Competitive performance on large datasets, matching state-of-the-art approaches.
PyBADS optimizes complex functions quickly and reliably.
problem Optimizing rough, noisy, and expensive functions with unknown gradients.
method Bayesian Adaptive Direct Search (BADS) algorithm.
result PyBADS performs well on both artificial and real-world problems.
Paper uses black-box inference to estimate non-linear latent force models.
problem Estimating posterior state and forcing term in non-linear systems with unknown forcing terms.
method Black-box variational inference with local inverse autoregressive flows.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of approximation on known posterior systems and non-linear dynamics.
Optimize black-box simulators with local generative models.
problem Optimizing non-differentiable, stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods.
method Differentiable local surrogate models based on deep generative models.
result Local surrogates enable gradient-based optimization, faster than baseline methods.
Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of mod…
A framework reduces bias in sampling from posterior distributions.
problem Reducing bias in sampling from posterior distributions.
method A black-box debiasing scheme generating weighted samples.
result Improves accuracy of posterior sampling without increasing variance.
Proposes ABC method for discrete data, improving likelihood-free inference.
problem Discrete data likelihood-free inference problems.
method Population-based MCMC ABC framework with a new Markov kernel inspired by Differential Evolution.
result High potential and superiority of the new Markov kernel demonstrated.
New methods improve Bayesian inference for complex economic models.
problem Difficulty in parameter estimation for simulation models, especially in economics.
method Neural network-based black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods.
result Neural network methods provide state-of-the-art parameter inference for economic simulation models.
Unified framework for MCMC and machine learning problems.
problem Intersection of MCMC and machine learning problems.
method Unified framework integrating various MCMC and machine learning techniques.
result Translation and generalization of theory and methods.
The paper analyzes how a known density function can be deviated by a mixture distribution as more data is collected.
problem Modeling the deviation of a known density function when more data is collected.
method A novel distinguishability notion is used to establish rates of convergence for maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure.
result Rates of convergence for the maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure are established under the Wasserstein metric.
Optimizes sampling for faster convergence in Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently selecting samples for faster convergence in Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification.
method Output-weighted acquisition functions leveraging likelihood ratio to guide sampling towards relevant regions.
result Superiority of the proposed method in uncertainty quantification and rare event identification.
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
DDVI uses diffusion models for variational inference, improving latent variable model performance.
problem Improving variational inference in latent variable models.
method Introduces diffusion-based variational posteriors trained with a regularized ELBO.
result Outperforms alternative variational posteriors on various benchmarks and a biology task.
Neural networks approximate CDFs for efficient likelihood estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating likelihoods for complex distributions.
method Parameterizing conditional CDFs with neural networks and using automatic differentiation.
result A range of neural network architectures for CDF estimation, from simple to flexible.
Selective prediction-set models improve predictive reliability and uncertainty quantification.
problem Inaccurate and unreliable predictions from black-box models, especially for unfamiliar data.
method Training selective prediction-set models using uncertainty-aware loss minimization, and calculating well-calibrated prediction sets.
result Selective prediction-set models outperform existing approaches in predicting in-hospital mortality and length-of-stay for ICU patients.
New method uses neural networks for accurate population genetic inference.
problem Inference for complex, population-scale genetic data.
method Exchangeable neural networks for likelihood-free inference.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on recombination hotspot testing.
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
problem State inference in state-space models with computationally expensive and undefined dynamics.
method Estimate state transition dynamics using a multi-output Gaussian process and Bayesian Neural Network as a surrogate model.
result Significant improvement in accuracy for state inference and prediction in non-stationary user models.
Robust Bayesian Optimization using Student-t Likelihood for noisy data.
problem Outliers in Gaussian process models bias Bayesian Optimization.
method Student-t likelihood to segregate and robustly handle outliers.
result Improved exploration and efficiency in Bayesian Optimization.
BB-α minimizes α-divergences for scalable inference.
problem Efficient approximate inference for complex models.
method Stochastic gradient descent for α-divergence minimization. result BB-α interpolates between VB and EP with α. Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms label shift adaptation methods.
problem Label shift adaptation in settings where class prevalence changes.
method Combining maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration, without model retraining.
result Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms BBSL and RLLS.
A new method combines variational inference and MCMC for efficient data subsampling.
problem Combining variational inference and MCMC for data subsampling.
method Introduces a surrogate likelihood to learn jointly with variational parameters.
result Permits an intuitive trade-off between inference fidelity and computational cost.
AdVIL improves inference and learning for MRFs with minimal assumptions.
problem Improving inference and learning for Markov random fields (MRFs) with minimal assumptions.
method AdVIL uses adversarial variational inference and learning to approximate latent variables and estimate partition functions.
result AdVIL provides a tighter estimate of the log partition function and better empirical results.
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
problem Black-box architectures of deep generative models are often unidentified and difficult to interpret.
method Introduces Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, a hierarchical binary latent variable model inside a copula framework.
result Establishes conditions for identification of DDE copula parameters and proves posterior consistency.
LatentFlow simplifies conditioning of stochastic processes without training.
problem Intractable conditional laws for complex stochastic models.
method Writing stochastic process as latent innovation, reducing conditioning to latent-space inference.
result Exact conditional sampling across various model classes.
Continuous neural networks using differential equations.
problem Training and optimizing neural networks with continuous-depth architectures.
method Parameterize derivative of hidden state using neural networks and solve differential equations.
result End-to-end training of continuous-depth models.
Method differentiates diffusion model training to predict sample sensitivity.
problem Predict how diffusion model samples change with small perturbations.
method Closed-form procedure for computing directional derivatives of the map.
result Estimates sensitivity of diffusion model samples to additive perturbations.
Improves understanding of stochastic NGVI convergence rates.
problem Lack of knowledge about non-asymptotic convergence rates in stochastic NGVI.
method Proved non-asymptotic convergence rates for conjugate likelihoods and showed implicit optimization for non-conjugate likelihoods.
result First O(T1) non-asymptotic convergence rate for stochastic NGVI in conjugate likelihoods. Paper uses ML to predict SME defaults with interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in ML models for SME default prediction.
method Model-agnostic approach using Accumulated Local Effects and Shapley values.
result eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm provides highest classification power with interpretability.
Proposes PE-GP-UCB for time-varying Bayesian optimisation.
problem Time-varying Gaussian process bandits with unknown prior.
method PE-GP-UCB algorithm, relying on consistency of function values with priors.
result Regret bound provided for the proposed algorithm.
A new method for releasing AI workflows to avoid premature incorrect results.
problem Statistical challenges in releasing AI workflows with adaptive scoring.
method Wrapper that calibrates and accumulates evidence from high-scoring failures.
result Reduces premature incorrect release while still releasing on moderate evidence.
We develop a fast inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian process models on spike count data.
problem Non-Gaussian spike count data complicates Gaussian Process Factor Analysis.
method We introduce Polynomial Approximate Log-Likelihood (PAL) estimators for non-conjugate GPFA models.
result PAL estimators achieve fast and accurate extraction of latent structure from spike train data.
Simplifies IV regression for high-dimensional instruments.
problem Nonlinear instrumental variable regression with high-dimensional instruments.
method Combines kernelized IV methods with an adaptive regression algorithm.
result Faster convergence and adaptability to feature dimensionality.
S-VBMC improves VBMC's exploration of complex posterior distributions.
problem Efficient inference for computationally expensive models with complex posterior distributions.
method Stacking multiple independent VBMC runs to create a robust global posterior approximation.
result Significant improvements in posterior approximation quality across various applications.
DDLK uses deep learning to find important features in models.
problem Discovering important features in black box models like deep neural networks.
method DDLK directly minimizes KL divergence to generate knockoffs that obey the swap property.
result DDLK outperforms baselines in discovering important features while controlling false discovery rate.
Boosting generative models improves their accuracy and diversity.
problem Improving the accuracy and diversity of generative models.
method A novel unsupervised boosting approach that trains models sequentially, leveraging likelihood evaluation and discriminative models.
result The ensemble of generative models improves the fit and generalization ability on various datasets.
New method calibrates neural SBI to avoid overconfident posteriors.
problem Overconfident posteriors in SBI due to inaccurate uncertainty quantification.
method Introduces a calibration term into neural model training objective, enabling end-to-end backpropagation.
result Achieves competitive or better coverage and posterior density than existing methods.
A new meta-learning BO approach that bypasses surrogate models and directly learns task utility.
problem Scalability issues and sensitivity to task similarity in existing meta-learning BO methods.
method Directly learns the utility of queries across tasks, models task uncertainty, and includes an auxiliary model for robust adaptation.
result Demonstrates strong anytime performance and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various benchmarks.