A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Research provides explicit NPV expressions for double barrier strategies.
New methods optimize sums of bivariate functions on finite domains.
We derive several new applications of the concept of sequences of Laplacian cut-off functions on Riemannian manifolds (which we prove to exist on geodesically complete Riemannian manifolds with nonnegative Ricci curvature): In particular, we prove that this existence implies -estimates of the gradient, a …
Proposes bivariate DeepKriging for efficient wind field prediction.
New method improves speed of estimating bivariate functional data.
Study uses a bivariate model to price crude oil futures.
This paper considers an insurance surplus process modeled by a spectrally negative Lévy process. Instead of the time of ruin in the traditional setting, we apply the time of drawdown as the risk indicator in this paper. We study the joint distribution of the time of drawdown, the running maximum at drawdown, the last m…
Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) infers the long term dependency through a cell state maintained by the input and the forget gate structures, which models a gate output as a value in [0,1] through a sigmoid function. However, due to the graduality of the sigmoid function, the sigmoid gate is not flexible in representing m…
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
New method optimizes processes under constraints using bivariate Gaussian models.
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
New method distinguishes cause from effect using causal velocity.
Researchers study the conformal geometry of bivariate Gaussian manifolds.
A new class of bivariate distributions is introduced that extends the Generalized Marshall-Olkin distributions of Li and Pellerey (2011). Their dependence structure is studied through the analysis of the copula functions that they induce. These copulas, that include as special cases the Generalized Marshall-Olkin copul…
The paper studies a gradient system on a beta statistical manifold, proving integrability and deriving explicit expressions.
We define parametrized cobordism categories and study their formal properties as bivariant theories. Bivariant transformations to a strongly excisive bivariant theory give rise to characteristic classes of smooth bundles with strong additivity properties. In the case of cobordisms between manifolds with boundary, we pr…
A competing market model with a polyvariant profit function that assumes "zeitnot" stock behavior of clients is formulated within the banking portfolio medium and then analyzed from the perspective of devising optimal strategies. An associated Markov process method for finding an optimal choice strategy for monovariant…
Constructs bivariate quantiles using vine copulas for multivariate analysis.
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail Expectation describes the expected amount of risk that can be experienced given …
TRA detects causal direction from bivariate data using geometric shapes.
We collect well known and less known facts about the bivariate normal distribution and translate them into copula language. In addition, we prove a very general formula for the bivariate normal copula, we compute Gini's gamma, and we provide improved bounds and approximations on the diagonal.
Study classifies mappings of bivariate normal densities, revealing three types with distinct geometric and statistical properties.
Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, i…
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert inf…
We show that gamma distributions provide models for departures from randomness since every neighbourhood of an exponential distribution contains a neighbourhood of gamma distributions, using an information theoretic metric topology. We derive also the information geometry of the 3-manifold of McKay bivariate gamma dist…
In this paper we consider a family of Dirac-type operators on fibration equivariant with respect to an action of an etale groupoid. Such a family defines an element in the bivariant theory. We compute the action of the bivariant Chern character of this element on the image of Connes' map in the cyclic…
The study evaluates financial risk using copulas and statistical tests.
Method estimates joint distribution of bivariate outcomes.
Modeling stock returns and volatility using a bivariate gamma generalized Laplace law.
Levy copulas are the most general concept to capture jump dependence in multivariate Levy processes. They translate the intuition and many features of the copula concept into a time series setting. A challenge faced by both, distributional and Levy copulas, is to find flexible but still applicable models for higher dim…
Several classification methods assume that the underlying distributions follow tree-structured graphical models. Indeed, trees capture statistical dependencies between pairs of variables, which may be crucial to attain low classification errors. The resulting classifier is linear in the log-transformed univariate and b…
It is well known that any sufficiently regular one-dimensional payoff function has an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts and lots of vanilla options. We show that the natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to a static hedge based on the same instruments along with traffic light optio…
In the article the necessary and sufficient conditions for a representation of Lipschitz function of two variables as a difference of two convex functions are formulated. An algorithm of this representation is given. The outcome of this algorithm is a sequence of pairs of convex functions that converge uniformly to a p…
Recently there has been an increasing interest in the multivariate Gaussian process (MGP) which extends the Gaussian process (GP) to deal with multiple outputs. One approach to construct the MGP and account for non-trivial commonalities amongst outputs employs a convolution process (CP). The CP is based on the idea of …
New method improves bivariate causal discovery by accurately estimating cause variable complexity.
The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure where the system is under the influence of both external and internal factors model…
Paper proves global optimality of a simple optimization scheme for learning DAG models.
Paper introduces statistical learning for point processes.
Gradient-based methods can be biased by distributional asymmetries in bivariate categorical data.
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
A new Heckman selection model uses a bivariate contaminated normal distribution for more accurate data analysis.
Causal inference using observational data is challenging, especially in the bivariate case. Through the minimum description length principle, we link the postulate of independence between the generating mechanisms of the cause and of the effect given the cause to quantile regression. Based on this theory, we develop Bi…
Develops a new bivariate process for energy markets with improved simulation methods.
Develops a framework for consistent pricing of interest rate derivatives.
New method infers causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
Deep Q-learning is investigated as an end-to-end solution to estimate the optimal strategies for acting on time series input. Experiments are conducted on two idealized trading games. 1) Univariate: the only input is a wave-like price time series, and 2) Bivariate: the input includes a random stepwise price time series…
Extended PELCoV for bivariate Student-t copulas to monitor foreign exchange risk.