A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new relaxed framework for pricing illiquid derivatives using bid-ask spreads.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
In this paper a finite discrete time market with an arbitrary state space and bid-ask spreads is considered. The notion of an equivalent bid-ask martingale measure (EBAMM) is introduced and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved using (EBAMM) as an equivalent condition for no-arbitrage. The Cox-Ross-Rubinst…
In our empirical study, we examine the price of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intraday price change using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find significant reversal for both intraday price decreases and increases. The results are stable against varying parameters. While on the NYSE the large widening of…
Method determines asset prices in incomplete markets to optimize portfolios.
Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity) of the ask (resp. bid) price. Time consistency is a crucial property for dynami…
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our asymptotic analysis using stylized features observed empirically. We argue that in t…
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
Given a finite set of European call option prices on a single underlying, we want to know when there is a market model which is consistent with these prices. In contrast to previous studies, we allow models where the underlying trades at a bid-ask spread. The main question then is how large (in terms of a deterministic…
Accurate forecasts of electricity spot prices are essential to the daily operational and planning decisions made by power producers and distributors. Typically, point forecasts of these quantities suffice, particularly in the Nord Pool market where the large quantity of hydro power leads to price stability. However, wh…
Study optimal semi-static hedging for illiquid markets using dynamic cash and static quoted derivatives.
The paper proposes estimators for bid-ask spreads with and without serial dependence.
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
Study examines new financial metrics and their implications for trading and risk management.
The paper studies risk-based prices in financial markets under volatility uncertainty.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …
Develops a model for bid and ask prices using stochastic control.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
To any utility maximization problem under transaction costs one can assign a frictionless model with a price process , lying in the bid/ask price interval . Such process is called a \emph{shadow price} if it provides the same optimal utility value as in the original model with bid-as…
A shadow price is a process lying within the bid/ask prices of a market with proportional transaction costs, such that maximizing expected utility from consumption in the frictionless market with this price process leads to the same maximal utility as in the original market with transaction costs. For finite probabilit…
Under proportional transaction costs, a price process is said to have a consistent price system, if there is a semimartingale with an equivalent martingale measure that evolves within the bid-ask spread. We show that a continuous, multi-asset price process has a consistent price system, under arbitrarily small proporti…
The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influencing factor. Hence,…
In this study we examine the evolution of price, volume, and the bid-ask spread after extreme 15 minute intraday price changes on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find that due to strong behavioral trading there is an overreaction. Furthermore we find that volatility which increases sharply at the event decays according to …
We provide a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem for a model independent discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs. We consider a probability-free version of the Robust No Arbitrage condition introduced in Schachermayer ['04] and show that this is equivalent to the e…
Model shows phase transitions in asset pricing with market maker incentives.
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional risk-neutral density (RND) directly from a cross-section of put option bid-ask quotes. More precisely, we propose to view the RND recovery problem as an inverse problem. We first show that it is possible to define restricted put and call operators th…
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
We consider the problem of maximizing expected power utility from consumption over an infinite horizon in the Black-Scholes model with proportional transaction costs, as studied in Shreve and Soner [Ann. Appl. Probab. 4 (1994) 609-692]. Similar to Kallsen and Muhle-Karbe [Ann. Appl. Probab. 20 (2010) 1341-1358], we der…
This paper uses RL to optimize bid-ask spreads for illiquid corporate bonds.
A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All t…
We build an agent-based model for the order book with three types of market participants: informed trader, noise trader and competitive market makers. Using a Glosten-Milgrom like approach, we are able to deduce the whole limit order book (bid-ask spread and volume available at each price) from the interactions between…
The method constructs arbitrage-free option surfaces from noisy quotes using Chebyshev bases and a fog post-fit layer.
Although behavioral economics has demonstrated that there are many situations where rational choice is a poor empirical model, it has so far failed to provide quantitative models of economic problems such as price formation. We make a step in this direction by developing empirical models that capture behavioral regular…
We propose a new non parametric technique to estimate the CALL function based on the superhedging principle. Our approach does not require absence of arbitrage and easily accommodates bid/ask spreads and other market imperfections. We prove some optimal statistical properties of our estimates. As an application we firs…
Statistical properties of order-driven double-auction markets with Bid-Ask spread are investigated through the dynamical quantities such as response function. We first attempt to utilize the so-called {\it Madhavan-Richardson-Roomans model} (MRR for short) to simulate the stochastic process of the price-change in empir…
The paper analyzes the joint dynamics of prices and order flow in electronic order books.
We study the dynamics of the limit order book of liquid stocks after experiencing large intra-day price changes. In the data we find large variations in several microscopical measures, e.g., the volatility the bid-ask spread, the bid-ask imbalance, the number of queuing limit orders, the activity (number and volume) of…
Paper proposes a method to robustly estimate volatility from OTM options.
In an -framework, we present a few extension theorems for linear operators. We focus the attention on majorant preserving and sandwich preserving types of extensions. These results are then applied to the study of price systems derived by a reasonable restriction of the class of equivalent martingale measures…
Develops a framework for valuing Asian options with market impact.
We show that the lack of arbitrage in a model with both fixed and proportional transaction costs is equivalent to the existence of a family of absolutely continuous single-step probability measures, together with an adapted process with values between the bid-ask spreads that satisfies the martingale property with resp…