Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms label shift adaptation methods.
problem Label shift adaptation in settings where class prevalence changes.
method Combining maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration, without model retraining.
result Maximum likelihood with bias-corrected calibration outperforms BBSL and RLLS.
Corrects bias in Cox models using AI-extracted covariates.
problem Bias in Cox regression models due to AI-extracted covariates.
method Unified multivariate calibration framework to decompose and correct bias.
result Corrected Cox estimator reduces bias and achieves near-nominal coverage.
The study examines methods to correct measurement error in nutritional epidemiology studies.
problem Measurement error in nutritional studies leads to biased and underconfident estimates.
method The article reviews various bias-correction models for exposure variables in nutritional epidemiology.
result Bias-correction methods are essential for accurate inference in nutritional studies.
Paper proposes an efficient method for calibrating spatio-temporal forecasts.
problem Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting challenges like signal anomalies and distributional shifts.
method Learning with Calibration (ST-TTC) for real-time bias correction.
result ST-TTC improves spatio-temporal forecasting accuracy with reduced computational cost.
New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.
problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.
Reduces false positives in classifying rare online platforms.
problem Challenges in accurately identifying rare online platforms with ML.
method Calibrated probabilities and ensembles to reduce bias.
result Significantly reduces false positives in rare event detection.
Corrects bias in LLM-as-a-judge evaluations using adaptive calibration.
problem Bias in LLM evaluations due to imperfect sensitivity and specificity.
method Plug-in framework with confidence intervals accounting for test and calibration dataset uncertainties.
result LML-based evaluation yields more reliable estimates than human-only evaluation.
New methods correct bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, but reliability depends on judge quality and model calibration.
problem Systematic bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations using naive estimators.
method Analytical results, simulations, and real-data case study to diagnose reliability of corrected estimates.
result Corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, can be unreliable under certain conditions.
Proposes a new algorithm to estimate invariant subspaces across multilayer networks.
problem Estimating invariant subspaces across heterogeneous multiple networks.
method Bias-corrected joint spectral embedding algorithm that recursively calibrates diagonal bias and iteratively updates the subspace estimator.
result Established entrywise subspace perturbation bound and entrywise eigenvector central limit theorem for the algorithm.
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
New method corrects seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions with probabilistic models.
problem Systematic biases and errors in climate model forecasts of Arctic sea ice.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder model to map observation distribution given biased model predictions.
result Probabilistic adjusted forecasts are better calibrated and have smaller errors.
Study proposes a new method to estimate bias-correction term for ATE estimation.
problem Estimating the bias-correction term for ATE estimation.
method Directly estimating the bias-correction term by minimizing Bregman divergence.
result Automatic covariate balancing property achieved through specific model choices.
This paper corrects climate model biases using a factor model approach.
problem Systematic biases in GCM outputs due to unobserved confounders.
method Factor model approach to learn latent confounders from historical data and apply them to enhance bias correction.
result Significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs.
This work examines bias-correction methods for distributed stochastic optimization.
problem Performance of bias-correction methods in stochastic and adaptive settings.
method Exact diffusion method is studied under stochastic and adaptive settings.
result Exact diffusion outperforms traditional methods in sparsely-connected network topologies.
Bias correction improves language model training performance.
problem Stochastic update bias in preconditioned optimizers.
method Cross-fitted preconditioning and variance-corrected inversion.
result Reduces held-out pretraining loss by 0.15 nats.
This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to…
A method corrects bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using auxiliary outcomes.
problem Bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using only one outcome.
method Robust transfer learning approach combining MTL and calibration steps.
result Final estimator achieves lower error than using only the target outcome.
AI-generated variables bias regression estimates; methods correct for invalid inference.
problem Bias in regression estimates due to AI-generated variables.
method Two methods: bias correction and joint estimation.
result Valid inference restored through proposed methods.
Bias correction needed after deep learning regression training.
problem Systematic error accumulation in deep learning regression models.
method Adjust bias of the machine learning model post-training.
result Bias correction efficiently solves error accumulation.
Semi-supervised learning debiased for better performance.
problem Bias in SSL methods impairs theoretical guarantees and empirical performance.
method Simple debiasing approach to remove risk estimate bias.
result Debiased SSL methods provide better calibrated models.
Depth uncertainty networks don't improve with bias correction, contrary to expectations.
problem Improving performance in active learning with overparameterised models like NNs.
method Depth uncertainty networks, compared to underparameterised models, show no improvement in performance with bias correction.
result Depth uncertainty networks do not improve with bias correction, unlike underparameterised models.
A new method improves super learner validation efficiency.
problem Improving the efficiency of super learner validation.
method Bootstrap Bias Corrected Cross Validation applied to Super Learning.
result Bootstrap Bias Corrected Cross Validation proved efficient and cost-effective.
The paper corrects biases in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
problem Systematic bias in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
method A bias-corrected estimator for both measures is proposed, highlighting shared steps and useful consequences.
result Simultaneous estimation of differential entropy and intrinsic dimension provides complementary perspectives on underlying manifolds.
STAS selects optimal spatio-temporal scales for bias correction in precipitation forecasts.
problem Limited prior data and fixed ST scale in existing BCoPs lead to biases in numerical weather predictions.
method End-to-end deep-learning BCoP model STAS with SFM/TFM to automatically adjust spatial and temporal scales.
result STAS outperforms 8 published BCoP methods on threat scores (TS).
Generative model improves wind field downscaling from coarse climate models.
problem Limited spatial resolution and biases in GCMs for wind energy studies.
method SerpentFlow for domain alignment and conditional fine-scale learning.
result Improved spatial coherence, inter-variable consistency, robustness under climate change.
A new method corrects bias in machine learning for trading by filtering out non-executable prices.
problem Contaminated data from price limits causes misleading performance metrics in trading models.
method Mask-first design with tradability filters, GPU optimization, and penalized losses.
result The system achieves Sharpe ratios of 1.63 on real data, significantly outperforming existing methods.
Distributed learning is an effective way to analyze big data. In distributed regression, a typical approach is to divide the big data into multiple blocks, apply a base regression algorithm on each of them, and then simply average the output functions learnt from these blocks. Since the average process will decrease th…
The paper analyzes cross-validation for correlated data and introduces a bias-corrected estimator.
problem Cross-validation with squared error loss assumes independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data, which is often violated in correlated data.
method The paper presents a criterion for standard CV suitability and introduces a bias-corrected estimator (CVc) for correlated data. result The bias-corrected estimator (CVc) yields an unbiased estimate of prediction error in settings where standard CV is invalid. We confirm the square-root law of market impact on Apple Inc. using a large dataset.
problem Testing the square-root law of market impact on a single U.S. large-cap equity.
method Using a full market-by-order feed, we reconstruct metaorders and calibrate impact using the square-root formula.
result The square-root law is confirmed with a prefactor of 0.34, consistent with worldwide data.
Study on estimating volatility of volatility using Fourier methods and provides insights into volatility dynamics.
problem Estimating the volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol) accurately and efficiently.
method Used Fourier methodology to estimate integrated volatility of volatility, bias-corrected and without bias-correction, comparing their asymptotic properties and accuracy.
result The bias-corrected estimator reaches the optimal rate n1/4, while the uncorrected estimator has a slower rate and smaller asymptotic variance. ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
A2A metric evaluates bias correction methods, reducing ATE estimation errors.
problem Selection biases in non-randomized studies of medical treatments.
method Propensity score matching (PSM) with novel metric A2A.
result Reduces ATE estimation errors by up to 90% across synthetic and real-world datasets.
Forest-guided smoothing uses random forest outputs for interpretable local smoothers.
problem Creating interpretable local smoothers from complex random forest outputs.
method Uses random forest outputs to define spatially adaptive bandwidth matrices for a linear smoother.
result Improves interpretability and applicability of random forest outputs for various analyses.
Unified view of improving tree model interpretability and debiasing feature importance.
problem Improving interpretability and debiasing feature importance in tree-based models.
method Demonstrates a common thread among bias correction methods and local explanations for trees.
result Points out a bias in explainable AI for trees algorithms due to inbag data inclusion.
BEMA reduces bias in EMA, leading to faster convergence and better performance.
problem Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning destabilizes training.
method Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA) augmentation of EMA.
result BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance.
The paper corrects bias in synthetic data for imbalanced learning.
problem Challenges in balancing false positive and negative rates in imbalanced data.
method Proposes a bias correction procedure to generate synthetic data for minority groups.
result Enhances prediction accuracy while avoiding overfitting.
Bayesian method corrects bias in imbalanced datasets.
problem Prevalence bias in machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian risk minimization framework, bias-corrected loss function.
result Corrected loss function improves model performance.
New method corrects bias in CVaR estimation for extreme risks.
problem Limited data above VaR leads to poor CVaR estimation.
method Bias-corrected peaks-over-threshold (POT) estimation using GPD.
result Asymptotically unbiased CVaR estimator with lower threshold.
In this paper, we consider asymptotic properties of the support vector machine (SVM) in high-dimension, low-sample-size (HDLSS) settings. We show that the hard-margin linear SVM holds a consistency property in which misclassification rates tend to zero as the dimension goes to infinity under certain severe conditions. …
New method corrects missing data bias in dimension reduction.
problem Missing data complicates high-dimensional data analysis.
method Developed a bias-corrected Gram matrix for heterogeneous missingness.
result Proposed method improves dimension reduction techniques significantly.
A new method corrects bias in high-dimensional ridge regression.
problem Inherent bias in ridge regression limits statistical efficiency and scalability.
method Iterative bias correction strategy for p<n and Ridge-Screening method for p>n. result Valid inferences and asymptotic properties established for de-biased ridge estimators.
Bayesian method corrects bias in class-aggregated values.
problem Bias in aggregated values from classification algorithms.
method Bayesian inference with constraints on model parameters.
result Outperforms existing methods in mean squared error.
Bayesian inference corrects bias in supervised learning datasets.
problem Correcting bias in supervised machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian inference framework to adjust posterior distribution.
result Improved model fitting to original dataset.
We model and correct bias in sequential evaluation, improving ranking accuracy.
problem Sequential evaluation bias in online, irrevocable scoring.
method Modeling the rating process, posing as statistical inference, proposing an online algorithm.
result Near-linear time, online algorithm with guarantees in ranking metrics, information theoretically optimal.
Paper derives normal approximations for singular subspaces with i.i.d. noise.
problem Normal approximation of singular subspaces under i.i.d. noise.
method Explicit representation formula, expected projection distance calculation, non-asymptotic normal approximation, bias corrections.
result Non-asymptotic normal approximation with optimal SNR condition and comprehensive simulation results.
This paper improves volatility estimation for noisy multivariate data.
problem Nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of multivariate Itô semimartingales.
method Pre-averaging and truncation techniques to handle noise and jumps; second-order expansion for bias correction; stable central limit theorems for asymptotic results.
result Achieves optimal convergence rate and stable central limit theorems with estimable asymptotic covariance matrices.
Unified study of ridge regression structure, cross-validation, and acceleration.
problem Understanding and optimizing ridge regression in large-data settings.
method Unified large-data linear model analysis, cross-validation bias correction, sketching accuracy study.
result Unified understanding and improved methods for ridge regression.
PBC improves AI and dynamical subseasonal forecasts by reducing biases.
problem Subseasonal forecast accuracy drops due to model biases and compounding errors.
method Probabilistic bias correction (PBC) using machine learning to correct historical forecasts.
result PBC doubles AI Forecasting System's subseasonal skill and improves dynamical model skill.