Study improves unbiased recommender learning by addressing missing-reward bias.
problem Data bias caused by missing-reward observations in recommender systems.
method Proposes a novel estimator using propensity scores to mitigate both position and reward bias.
result The proposed estimator outperforms other methods, even with increased reward observation bias.
Centered plug-in estimators reduce bias in Wasserstein distance estimation.
problem Conservative bias in plug-in estimators of Wasserstein distances.
method Centering procedure based on linear combinations to reduce bias.
result Centered plug-in estimators provide informative upper and lower bounds on Wasserstein distances.
Study proposes a new method to estimate bias-correction term for ATE estimation.
problem Estimating the bias-correction term for ATE estimation.
method Directly estimating the bias-correction term by minimizing Bregman divergence.
result Automatic covariate balancing property achieved through specific model choices.
EBQL reduces bias in Q-learning for improved performance.
problem Over- and under-estimation biases in Q-learning degrade performance.
method Ensemble Bootstrapping to reduce both over- and under-estimation biases.
result EBQL outperforms other Q-learning methods in Atari games.
Paper proposes a bias-constrained deep learning approach to non-linear estimation.
problem Designing unbiased estimators for non-linear models.
method Bias Constrained Estimator (BCE) using deep learning with bias constraints.
result Asymptotic MVUEs with Cramer Rao bound performance.
Extends Popularity Bias Memorization theorem to new conditions.
problem Estimating alignment with top-k singular hyperspace.
method Extending theorem to arbitrary degree distributions and proving upper and lower bounds.
result Upper and lower estimates for alignment with top-k singular hyperspace.
The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.
problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.
Paper analyzes ECE bias and provides bounds for its estimation.
problem Understanding the estimation bias in ECE for machine learning models.
method Information-theoretic approach to analyze bias in uniform mass and uniform width binning strategies.
result Established upper bounds on ECE estimation bias and optimal number of bins.
We rebias estimates to improve interval calibration and prediction accuracy.
problem Constructing accurate intervals for noisy and biased estimates.
method Empirical Bayes rebiasing strategy that learns bias distribution from data.
result Substantial precision gains in prediction-powered inference.
New method reduces bias in estimating causal effects from discretized variables.
problem Bias in estimating causal effects from discretized continuous variables.
method Proposes a bias-reduced functional that evaluates outcome regression at within-bin conditional means.
result Demonstrates substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage.
Proposes bounds on bias from low-dimensional representations in CATE estimation.
problem Bias in CATE estimation due to low-dimensional representations.
method Proposes a refutation framework to estimate bounds on representation-induced confounding bias.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of refutation framework in practice.
We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of t…
Estimates causal effects with selection bias and confounding using regression.
problem Estimating causal effects in presence of selection bias and confounding.
method Two-step regression estimator (TSR) that corrects for selection bias and accounts for confounding.
result TSR estimator reduces variance and is validated in simulations.
New method corrects bias in CVaR estimation for extreme risks.
problem Limited data above VaR leads to poor CVaR estimation.
method Bias-corrected peaks-over-threshold (POT) estimation using GPD.
result Asymptotically unbiased CVaR estimator with lower threshold.
Paper explores robust regression methods and their bias-variance trade-off.
problem Understanding the trade-off between robust estimation and optimization methods.
method Examines traditional outlier-resistant robust estimation and robust optimization.
result Both methods follow converse strategies due to a bias-variance trade-off.
Bias correction improves language model training performance.
problem Stochastic update bias in preconditioned optimizers.
method Cross-fitted preconditioning and variance-corrected inversion.
result Reduces held-out pretraining loss by 0.15 nats.
New method corrects selection bias in complex models.
problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.
New methods reduce bias in estimating calibration error.
problem Reducing bias in estimating calibration error.
method Synthesizing model outputs and using equal-mass bins.
result Two reliable calibration-error estimators found: debiased estimator and ECE_sweep.
Private statistics estimation faces a bias, accuracy, and privacy trilemma.
problem Balancing privacy, accuracy, and bias in statistical estimation.
method Use differential privacy (DP) for private statistics, but clip samples to control sensitivity and add noise for privacy, introducing bias.
result No algorithm can simultaneously have low bias, low error, and low privacy loss for arbitrary distributions.
The paper corrects biases in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
problem Systematic bias in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
method A bias-corrected estimator for both measures is proposed, highlighting shared steps and useful consequences.
result Simultaneous estimation of differential entropy and intrinsic dimension provides complementary perspectives on underlying manifolds.
The study examines methods to correct measurement error in nutritional epidemiology studies.
problem Measurement error in nutritional studies leads to biased and underconfident estimates.
method The article reviews various bias-correction models for exposure variables in nutritional epidemiology.
result Bias-correction methods are essential for accurate inference in nutritional studies.
New Hessian estimators for Riemannian manifolds with reduced bias.
problem Estimating Hessians on Riemannian manifolds with reduced bias and computational efficiency.
method Introducing new stochastic zeroth-order Hessian estimators using O ( 1 ) O(1) O ( 1 ) function evaluations. result Achieved a bias bound of order O ( γ δ 2 ) O(γδ^2) O ( γ δ 2 ) for analytic real-valued functions. AI-generated variables bias regression estimates; methods correct for invalid inference.
problem Bias in regression estimates due to AI-generated variables.
method Two methods: bias correction and joint estimation.
result Valid inference restored through proposed methods.
GraphTEE estimates treatment effects on graph-structured targets, mitigating bias.
problem Understanding treatment effects on graph-structured targets with observational bias.
method GraphTEE framework focusing on confounding variable sets and new regularization.
result GraphTEE mitigates bias better than previous methods.
Bayesian adaptive designs can be biased by active learning, especially with misspecified models.
problem Active learning bias in Bayesian adaptive experimental designs.
method Analysis of linear and preference learning models, empirical testing.
result Model misspecification and noise influence active learning bias in Bayesian designs.
Proposes a new algorithm to estimate invariant subspaces across multilayer networks.
problem Estimating invariant subspaces across heterogeneous multiple networks.
method Bias-corrected joint spectral embedding algorithm that recursively calibrates diagonal bias and iteratively updates the subspace estimator.
result Established entrywise subspace perturbation bound and entrywise eigenvector central limit theorem for the algorithm.
New method corrects risk estimation bias, improving backtesting results.
problem Underestimation of risk by existing methods, especially in small samples.
method Proposes a new algorithm for bias correction using generalized Pareto distributions.
result The new algorithm leads to improved efficiency in estimating risk with heavy tails or heteroscedasticity.
New algorithm corrects risk estimation bias for heavy-tailed data.
problem Underestimation of risk in banking and insurance due to bias in estimation procedures.
method Proposes a new algorithm for bias correction and applies it to generalized Pareto distributions.
result The algorithm leads to more accurate risk estimation, especially in heavy-tailed data.
Semiparametric method removes bias in functional bilevel gradient estimation.
problem First-order bias in plug-in hypergradient when lower-level problem is nonparametric.
method Semiparametric debiasing theory based on efficient influence function leads to cross-fitted orthogonal hypergradient estimator.
result Asymptotic normality and uniform control over outer parameter established for the estimator.
New methods correct bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, but reliability depends on judge quality and model calibration.
problem Systematic bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations using naive estimators.
method Analytical results, simulations, and real-data case study to diagnose reliability of corrected estimates.
result Corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, can be unreliable under certain conditions.
New method improves online covariance estimation for SGD.
problem Improving online covariance estimation for SGD.
method Proposes a de-biased covariance estimator that eliminates second-order derivatives.
result Achieves a convergence rate of n ( α − 1 ) / 2 log n n^{(α-1)/2} \sqrt{\log n} n ( α − 1 ) /2 log n , outperforming existing methods. New matching estimators correct bias in multivariate settings without smoothing parameters.
problem Bias in nearest-neighbor and matching estimators in multiple dimensions.
method Polynomial least squares fits on Voronoi tessellations.
result Novel estimators converge at n \sqrt{n} n rate under mild smoothness assumptions. This paper quantifies and mitigates a bias in the Hayashi-Yoshida estimator causing data loss.
problem Formulaic bias in the Hayashi-Yoshida estimator leading to data loss.
method Formalizes and quantifies the data loss, introduces (a,b)-asynchronous adversary, and provides algorithms.
result Proves that for equal rates, the minimal average cumulative data loss is 25%.
New method quantifies inductive bias for machine learning tasks.
problem Quantifying the amount of inductive bias in machine learning models.
method Estimates inductive bias by modeling loss distribution of random hypotheses.
result Higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias.
Improves Gaussian process regression without bias.
problem Bias in Gaussian process regression estimates.
method Adaptive computation selection to minimize bias.
result Guaranteed small bias in log marginal likelihood estimates.
We consider large-scale studies in which it is of interest to test a very large number of hypotheses, and then to estimate the effect sizes corresponding to the rejected hypotheses. For instance, this setting arises in the analysis of gene expression or DNA sequencing data. However, naive estimates of the effect sizes …
New estimator reduces bias-variance tradeoff in Markovian interference experiments.
problem Estimating impact of interventions in systems with limited resources.
method Differences-In-Q (DQ) estimator for on-policy policy evaluation.
result DQ estimator has exponentially smaller variance than off-policy methods.
This paper investigates bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolios, finding it often negligible.
problem Bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolio evaluation.
method Investigation of bias in rolling-window mean-variance portfolios using resampling techniques.
result The bias in Sharpe Ratio estimates from IID resampling is often a fraction of estimation noise, making it tolerable.
Improved estimator reduces bias in statistical learning models.
problem Asymptotic bias in classic WDRO estimator.
method Adjusted Wasserstein distributionally robust estimator.
result Asymptotic unbiased estimator with smaller MSE.
Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces the variance of infinite-horizon off-policy evaluation by estimating the stationar…
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
Quantile regression undercovers true uncertainty, revealing a bias in high dimensions.
problem Under-coverage bias in uncertainty estimation by quantile regression.
method Theoretical study on coverage of uncertainty estimation algorithms in learning quantiles.
result Quantile regression undercovers true uncertainty, revealing a bias in high dimensions.
Paper tackles bias-variance trade-off in missing data, proposing a dynamic framework.
problem Missing data in practical applications deteriorates model performance.
method Develops a fine-grained dynamic learning framework to jointly optimize bias and variance.
result Theoretical and empirical validation of joint bias-variance optimization.
New methods reduce bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse stochastic programs.
problem Optimality gap estimation bias in risk-averse stochastic programs.
method Two independent samples, each estimating a different component of the optimality gap.
result Our method reduces bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse problems.
Improved GSPGS estimators reduce bias in noisy function measurements.
problem Reduced bias in noisy function measurements.
method Generalized Simultaneous Perturbation-based Gradient Search (GSPGS) with various estimators.
result Estimators requiring more function measurements have lower bias.
A new estimator corrects bias in high-dimensional predictive regressions.
problem Bias in high-dimensional predictive regressions.
method IVX-desparsified LASSO (XDlasso) estimator.
result Corrects both shrinkage and Stambaugh bias.
Generalizes bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
problem No specific problem stated; generalization of bias-variance for Bregman divergences.
method Provided a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
result A clear, standalone derivation of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
It is a truth universally acknowledged that an observed association without known mechanism must be in want of a causal estimate. However, causal estimation from observational data often relies on the (untestable) assumption of `no unobserved confounding'. Violations of this assumption can induce bias in effect estimat…