In the Best- identification problem (Best--Arm), we are given stochastic bandit arms with unknown reward distributions. Our goal is to identify the arms with the largest means with high confidence, by drawing samples from the arms adaptively. This problem is motivated by various practical applications and…
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The paper evaluates and benchmarks electricity price forecasting models.
Machine learning is often used in competitive scenarios: Participants learn and fit static models, and those models compete in a shared platform. The common assumption is that in order to win a competition one has to have the best predictive model, i.e., the model with the smallest out-sample error. Is that necessarily…
Within the last decade, neural network based predictors have demonstrated impressive - and at times super-human - capabilities. This performance is often paid for with an intransparent prediction process and thus has sparked numerous contributions in the novel field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). In this…
New algorithm identifies best arm with optimal budget usage.
Finding a well-performing architecture is often tedious for both DL practitioners and researchers, leading to tremendous interest in the automation of this task by means of neural architecture search (NAS). Although the community has made major strides in developing better NAS methods, the quality of scientific empiric…
We point out important problems with the common practice of using the best single model performance for comparing deep learning architectures, and we propose a method that corrects these flaws. Each time a model is trained, one gets a different result due to random factors in the training process, which include random …
There is no free lunch, no single learning algorithm that will outperform other algorithms on all data. In practice different approaches are tried and the best algorithm selected. An alternative solution is to build new algorithms on demand by creating a framework that accommodates many algorithms. The best combination…
Within the context of traditional life insurance, a model-independent relationship about how the market value of assets is attributed to the best estimate, the value of in-force business and tax is established. This relationship holds true for any portfolio under run-off assumptions and can be used for the validation o…
Deep learning (DL) is transforming industry as decision-making processes are being automated by deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on real-world data. Driven partly by rapidly-expanding literature on DNN approximation theory showing they can approximate a rich variety of functions, such tools are increasingly being co…
The paper evaluates the probability distributions of analog-to-target distances for multiple analogs.
Hard optimisation problems such as Boolean Satisfiability typically have long solving times and can usually be solved by many algorithms, although the performance can vary widely in practice. Research has shown that no single algorithm outperforms all the others; thus, it is crucial to select the best algorithm for a g…
This paper reviews hyperparameter optimization methods and best practices.
A universal learner achieves best rates for all distributions.
When selecting a classification algorithm to be applied to a particular problem, one has to simultaneously select the best algorithm for that dataset \emph{and} the best set of hyperparameters for the chosen model. The usual approach is to apply a nested cross-validation procedure; hyperparameter selection is performed…
Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable and a dependent variable by modeling their conditional probability . The paper develops best practices for conditional den…
Private ALS method improves matrix completion with tighter rates and better privacy.
Paper tackles unknown variances in best-arm identification.
Topic models provide a useful method for dimensionality reduction and exploratory data analysis in large text corpora. Most approaches to topic model inference have been based on a maximum likelihood objective. Efficient algorithms exist that approximate this objective, but they have no provable guarantees. Recently, a…
Empirical study compares wide neural networks to kernel methods, resolving open questions.
This paper deals with the explicit design of strategy formulations to make the best strategic choices from a conventional matrix form of representing strategic choices. The explicit strategy formulation is an analytical model which is targeted to provide a mathematical strategy framework to find the best moment for str…
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose …
PURE-CD algorithm proves complexity bounds for convex-concave problems.
Study evaluates 21 KG embedding models, highlighting model architecture, training approach, and loss function importance.
RQMC improves QMC by providing practical error bounds for financial applications.
Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences create a solid basis for…
Paper tackles best arm identification with cost consideration.
Best-of-N sampling reveals reward targets from preference data, influencing N and base distribution choices.
New adaptive first-order methods improve on quasi-Newton variants.
Optimal best-arm identification with known number of optimal arms.
The backpropagation algorithm has long been the canonical training method for neural networks. Modern paradigms are implicitly optimized for it, and numerous guidelines exist to ensure its proper use. Recently, synthetic gradients methods -where the error gradient is only roughly approximated - have garnered interest. …
Paper finds Dutch Draw optimal baseline for binary classification.
Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing challenge to provide a learning-theoretically sound formalism of such notions th…
Proposes a group-splicing algorithm for efficient BSGS in high-dimensional settings.
Adversarial attacks for image classification are small perturbations to images that are designed to cause misclassification by a model. Adversarial attacks formally correspond to an optimization problem: find a minimum norm image perturbation, constrained to cause misclassification. A number of effective attacks have b…
Algorithm identifies best arm with prior info in structured bandits.
This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total a…
Proposes guidelines for developing medical AI products.
New algorithm reduces regret in both adversarial and stochastic contexts.
We investigate and provide new insights on the sampling rule called Top-Two Thompson Sampling (TTTS). In particular, we justify its use for fixed-confidence best-arm identification. We further propose a variant of TTTS called Top-Two Transportation Cost (T3C), which disposes of the computational burden of TTTS. As our …
Paper tackles efficient BAI in graph-smooth bandits.
The European insurance sector will soon be faced with the application of Solvency 2 regulation norms. It will create a real change in risk management practices. The ORSA approach of the second pillar makes the capital allocation an important exercise for all insurers and specially for groups. Considering multi-branches…
Investigates safe decision-making in interactive environments.
FTPL policy achieves best-of-both-worlds regret in decoupled bandits with reduced computational cost.
Paper presents a workflow for reliable unsupervised learning in science.
Solves selecting the best optimizing system problems.
Faster WIND accelerates iterative BOND for LLM alignment.
Combines offline and online learning for identifying the best arm in bandits.