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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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55109164218 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for behavioral biases

The paper introduces new metrics for evaluating generative models of behavior.

problem Lack of quantitative evaluation criteria for unsupervised behavior discovery.
method Proposed and investigated several metrics for generative models of behavior.
result The proposed metrics correspond with biologists' intuitions and allow for model evaluation and bias understanding.

Study models human investors' sub-rational behavior in financial markets.

problem Lack of a comprehensive model for human sub-rationality in financial markets.
method Flexible reinforcement learning model incorporating five human sub-rational aspects.
result Model accurately reproduces human behavior and reveals insights into market dynamics.

Study evaluates if LLMs have company-specific biases in financial sentiment analysis.

problem Evaluating if large language models exhibit company-specific biases in financial sentiment analysis.
method Comparing sentiment scores with and without company names, constructing economic models, and empirical analysis.
result LLMs show company-specific biases in sentiment analysis, impacting investor behavior and stock prices.

New metric MADD assesses fairness of predictive student models.

problem Predictive student models can be biased and unfair, leading to discrimination.
method Proposes MADD metric to analyze model's discriminatory behaviors.
result Fair predictive performance does not guarantee fair behaviors or outcomes.

Study reveals biases in gradient descent for GLNs, improving neural network performance.

problem Understanding and improving the inductive biases of deep neural networks.
method Derive infinite-time training limit of gated linear networks and generalize to other networks.
result Theoretical framework captures key inductive biases of ReLU networks.

ChatGPT improves financial reasoning, overcoming biases in gold investment.

problem Improving financial reasoning and overcoming biases in investment decisions.
method Applied advanced prompt engineering and semantic news information to enhance LLMs' performance.
result ChatGPT with CoT prompt provides more explainable predictions and higher investment returns.

LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.

A new strategy for identifying the best arm in Gaussian bandits with improved exploration.

problem Best-arm identification for Gaussian bandits with bounded means and unit variance.
method Exploration-Biased Sampling, a non-asymptotic approach with improved exploration behavior.
result Improved exploration behavior makes the strategy more stable and interpretable.

LLMs show biases in investment analysis, leading to unreliable recommendations.

problem LLMs face conflicts between pre-trained knowledge and real-time market data, leading to biases in investment analysis.
method Experimental framework to investigate emergent behaviors in LLMs, analyzing sector, size, and momentum biases.
result Distinct, model-specific biases observed, including a tendency to prefer technology stocks, large-cap stocks, and contrarian strategies.

Improved probabilistic forecasts using behavioral transformations.

problem Improving accuracy and consistency of probabilistic asset price forecasts.
method Behavioral transformation of fundamental expectations to disentangle sentiment-induced biases.
result Substantial forecast gains across various models and risk-preferences.

Strong inductive biases prevent harmless interpolation in overparameterized models.

problem Understanding the conditions under which overparameterized models can interpolate noise without overfitting.
method Theoretical analysis of high-dimensional kernel regression and deep neural networks, focusing on the role of inductive biases.
result The strength of an estimator's inductive bias determines whether interpolation is harmless or requires fitting noise for good generalization.

There are no solid arguments to sustain that digital currencies are the future of online payments or the disruptive technology that some of its former participants declared when used to face critiques. This paper aims to solve the cryptocurrency puzzle from a behavioral finance perspective by finding the parallelism be…

2018-06-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Feedback loops amplify dataset biases, affecting future model performance.

problem Feedback loops amplify biases in datasets, risking future model reliability.
method Formalized system where model interactions are recorded and reused, analyzed for bias amplification.
result Models that behave like samples from the training distribution are more stable and calibrated.

This research explores inductive biases for deep learning to improve AI's higher-level cognition.

problem Current AI struggles with flexible out-of-distribution and systematic generalization.
method Examines and proposes new inductive biases for deep learning.
result Identifies specific inductive biases for higher-level sequential processing.

Paper develops a framework for learning interpretable representations of sequential decision behavior.

problem Obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior.
method Inverse decision modeling framework, formalizing both forward and inverse problems.
result Learning interpretable representations of behavior, including suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge.

Adobe research tackles strategic recommendations using reinforcement learning.

problem Optimizing user interactions for long-term objectives in various use-cases.
method Reinforcement learning applied to modeling user behavior and decision-making.
result Practical solutions implemented for various use-cases, addressing fundamental challenges.

New proof links initial class bias to DNN trainability, challenging traditional understanding.

problem Understanding the initial class bias in DNNs and its impact on trainability.
method Theoretical proof linking initial class bias to mean field theories of DNNs.
result Efficient learning is connected to a network's prejudice towards a specific class, contradicting traditional understanding.

Configuration spaces for computer systems can be challenging for traditional and automatic tuning strategies. Injecting task-specific knowledge into the tuner for a task may allow for more efficient exploration of candidate configurations. We apply this idea to the task of index set selection to accelerate database wor…

2019-09-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.

problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.

The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.

problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.

We study high-dimensional Gaussian mixture classification using statistical physics methods.

problem Classifying high-dimensional Gaussian mixture with general covariance matrices.
method Replica method from statistical physics for asymptotic analysis of convex classifiers.
result Construction and validation of a de-biased estimator for variable selection.

NeuralRBMLE tackles explore-exploit trade-offs in contextual bandits with neural networks.

problem Stochastic contextual bandit problem with general bounded reward functions.
method Reward-biased maximum likelihood estimation with neural networks to enforce exploration.
result Both NeuralRBMLE variants achieve O~(T)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret.

The asymptotic behavior of the stochastic gradient algorithm with a biased gradient estimator is analyzed. Relying on arguments based on the dynamic system theory (chain-recurrence) and the differential geometry (Yomdin theorem and Lojasiewicz inequality), tight bounds on the asymptotic bias of the iterates generated b…

2017-08-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Large learning rates lead to various implicit biases in nonconvex optimization.

problem Understanding the conditions under which large learning rates yield edge of stability, balancing, and catapult phenomena.
method Developed a global convergence theory for nonconvex functions without globally Lipschitz continuous gradient, focusing on functions with good regularity.
result These implicit biases are more likely to occur in functions with good regularity, and large learning rates favor flatter regions.

We introduce SADs to reveal how network architecture shapes score-based generative models.

problem Understanding and predicting the inductive biases of score-based generative models.
method Introducing Score Anisotropy Directions (SADs) to analyze network architecture.
result SADs reliably capture model behavior and correlate with performance.

Variational inference struggles with weight symmetries in neural networks, leading to biased posteriors.

problem Weight space symmetries in neural networks cause multimodal posteriors, challenging variational inference.
method Developed a symmetrization mechanism to create permutation invariant variational posteriors.
result Symmetrized variational posteriors have a better fit to the true posterior and improved predictive performance.

This research tackles group fairness in predictive process monitoring by ensuring predictions are independent of sensitive group membership.

problem Predictive models using biased historical data can perpetuate unfair behavior in new cases.
method Investigates independence through metrics like ΔDP and a composite loss function balancing predictive performance and fairness.
result Proposes and validates a composite loss function for training models that balance fairness and performance.

As reinforcement learning agents are tasked with solving more challenging and diverse tasks, the ability to incorporate prior knowledge into the learning system and to exploit reusable structure in solution space is likely to become increasingly important. The KL-regularized expected reward objective constitutes one po…

2019-03-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Industrial recommender systems deal with extremely large action spaces -- many millions of items to recommend. Moreover, they need to serve billions of users, who are unique at any point in time, making a complex user state space. Luckily, huge quantities of logged implicit feedback (e.g., user clicks, dwell time) are …

2018-12-06abs ↗pdf ↗

KFAtt improves CTR prediction by modeling user behavior with Kalman filtering attention.

problem Improving CTR prediction in personalized e-commerce search engines.
method KFAtt combines Kalman filtering with attention mechanisms to model user behavior.
result KFAtt outperforms existing methods in CTR prediction, achieving better performance in both offline and online settings.

Theoretical model for iterative user discovery in recommender systems.

problem Iterative feedback loops in recommender systems and their biases.
method Theoretical framework to model system evolution and convergence properties.
result Theoretical bounds and convergence properties on user discovery and blind spots.

GICDM corrects hubness in embedding spaces for better generative model evaluation.

problem Hubness phenomenon distorts distances in high-dimensional embedding spaces.
method Generative ICDM (GICDM) using multi-scale extension to correct neighborhood estimation.
result GICDM resolves hubness-induced failures and improves metric behavior.

Interprets how intrinsic motivation shapes behavior in RL agents.

problem Understanding how intrinsic motivation influences behavior in reinforcement learning agents.
method Analyzed five RL agents in procedurally generated environments using various interpretability techniques.
result Curiosity-driven agents exhibit broader and more dynamic attention than extrinsically motivated agents.

PAC-MCTS addresses biased search in LLM-guided planning by dynamically pruning.

problem Systematic biases in LLMs lead to inefficient and unsafe search in deep planning tasks.
method Formulates node expansion as BAI under bounded bias, derives sample complexity bounds, and proposes PAC-MCTS for dynamic confidence bounds.
result PAC-MCTS improves robustness and efficiency by up to 78% fewer API evaluations and 3x higher sample efficiency.

Study examines how balancing methods affect model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.

problem Impact of balancing methods on model behavior in imbalanced classification problems.
method Used Explainable Artificial Intelligence tools (variable importance method, partial dependence profile, accumulated local effects) to compare model behavior before and after balancing.
result Significant changes in model behavior due to balancing methods, leading to biased models.