A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a method to simulate data for testing credit risk scorecard stability.
Investments with best performance are not associated with best Sharpe ratios.
Proposes a new factor to improve BAB strategies by recognizing bad-beta assets.
Improved GAN training stability through clipping and reweighting.
Smart beta, also known as strategic beta or factor investing, is the idea of selecting an investment portfolio in a simple rule-based manner that systematically captures market inefficiencies, thereby enhancing risk-adjusted returns above capitalization-weighted benchmarks. We explore the idea of applying a smart strat…
The abstract constructs a set of bad 3-orbifolds and shows how any bad 3-orbifold can be transformed into a good one.
Recent work has noted that all bad local minima can be removed from neural network loss landscapes, by adding a single unit with a particular parameterization. We show that the core technique from these papers can be used to remove all bad local minima from any loss landscape, so long as the global minimum has a loss o…
New attacks reduce bad queries in black-box classifiers, improving effectiveness.
Study finds stocks with common firm fears earn lower returns.
This paper introduces a gradient analysis framework to improve language model performance by rewarding good examples and penalizing bad ones.
New proof shows knot Floer thickness limits bad domains in diagrams.
We provide two fundamental results on the population (infinite-sample) likelihood function of Gaussian mixture models with components. Our first main result shows that the population likelihood function has bad local maxima even in the special case of equally-weighted mixtures of well-separated and spherical…
In this paper, we consider a dynamic asset pricing model in an approximate fractional economy to address empirical regularities related to both investor protection and past information. Our newly developed model features not only in terms with a controlling shareholder who diverts a fraction of the output, but also goo…
Due to the insufficient measurements in the distribution system state estimation (DSSE), full observability and redundant measurements are difficult to achieve without using the pseudo measurements. The matrix completion state estimation (MCSE) combines the matrix completion and power system model to estimate voltage b…
NICE learns a representation to avoid bad controls in causal inference.
In deep learning, \textit{depth}, as well as \textit{nonlinearity}, create non-convex loss surfaces. Then, does depth alone create bad local minima? In this paper, we prove that without nonlinearity, depth alone does not create bad local minima, although it induces non-convex loss surface. Using this insight, we greatl…
We show that every bad orbifold vector bundle can be realized as the restriction of a good orbifold vector bundle to a suborbifold of the base space. We give an explicit construction of this result in which the Chen-Ruan orbifold cohomology of the two base spaces are isomorphic (as additive groups). This construction i…
Successful deployment of machine learning algorithms in healthcare requires careful assessments of their performance and safety. To date, the FDA approves locked algorithms prior to marketing and requires future updates to undergo separate premarket reviews. However, this negates a key feature of machine learning--the …
In this article we revisit the definition of Precision-Recall (PR) curves for generative models proposed by Sajjadi et al. (arXiv:1806.00035). Rather than providing a scalar for generative quality, PR curves distinguish mode-collapse (poor recall) and bad quality (poor precision). We first generalize their formulation …
In semi-supervised learning, virtual adversarial training (VAT) approach is one of the most attractive method due to its intuitional simplicity and powerful performances. VAT finds a classifier which is robust to data perturbation toward the adversarial direction. In this study, we provide a fundamental explanation why…
Computational models in fields such as computational neuroscience are often evaluated via stochastic simulation or numerical approximation. Fitting these models implies a difficult optimization problem over complex, possibly noisy parameter landscapes. Bayesian optimization (BO) has been successfully applied to solving…
In this work, we investigate semi-supervised learning (SSL) for image classification using adversarial training. Previous results have illustrated that generative adversarial networks (GANs) can be used for multiple purposes. Triple-GAN, which aims to jointly optimize model components by incorporating three players, ge…
Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of He…
Graph attacks can be successful with just a few bad nodes.
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and good volatility may spill over at different magnitudes. This paper fills this gap…
One of the main difficulties in analyzing neural networks is the non-convexity of the loss function which may have many bad local minima. In this paper, we study the landscape of neural networks for binary classification tasks. Under mild assumptions, we prove that after adding one special neuron with a skip connection…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known for their vulnerability to adversarial examples. These are examples that have undergone small, carefully crafted perturbations, and which can easily fool a DNN into making misclassifications at test time. Thus far, the field of adversarial research has mainly focused on image model…
We identify a class of over-parameterized deep neural networks with standard activation functions and cross-entropy loss which provably have no bad local valley, in the sense that from any point in parameter space there exists a continuous path on which the cross-entropy loss is non-increasing and gets arbitrarily clos…
We detect and quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers using the realized semivariances of petroleum commodities: crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. During the 1987--2014 period we document increasing spillovers from volatility among petroleum commodities that substantially change after the 2008 financial crisi…
Highly connected orbifolds are rare but exist.
PyBADS optimizes complex functions quickly and reliably.
Reviews recent findings on neural network landscapes.
This research secures deployed sentiment analysis models by identifying and defending against attack vectors.
Bad models can teach well by replicating noise.
In this paper, we study a simple and generic framework to tackle the problem of learning model parameters when a fraction of the training samples are corrupted. We first make a simple observation: in a variety of such settings, the evolution of training accuracy (as a function of training epochs) is different for clean…
The CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates, unlocking the weight of evidence, Somers' D, and Gini coefficient.
A simple modification improves GAN performance by discarding bad samples.
This paper demonstrates how to apply machine learning algorithms to distinguish good stocks from the bad stocks. To this end, we construct 244 technical and fundamental features to characterize each stock, and label stocks according to their ranking with respect to the return-to-volatility ratio. Algorithms ranging fro…
In this paper, we prove that depth with nonlinearity creates no bad local minima in a type of arbitrarily deep ResNets with arbitrary nonlinear activation functions, in the sense that the values of all local minima are no worse than the global minimum value of corresponding classical machine-learning models, and are gu…
The study analyzes local minima in ReLU networks and finds low probability of bad local minima.
The lattice cohomology of a plumbed 3--manifold associated with a connected negative definite plumbing graph is an important tool in the study of topological properties of , and in the comparison of the topological properties with analytic ones when is realized as complex analytic singularity link. By defini…
For the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, it is known that an -based estimator can achieve a "fast" rate on the prediction error without any conditions on the design matrix, whereas in absence of restrictive conditions on the design matrix, popular polynomial-time methods only guarante…
New rule reduces exploration regret to logarithmic, improving bad episode handling.
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad r…
This work explains neural collapse in shallow neural networks and its impact on generalization.
We find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates vary depending on the state of the economic cycle. Our modeling approach incorporates a two-state Markov switching mechanism as a proxy for the latent credit cycle, helping to explain differences in observed recovery rates over time. We are able to demonstrate ho…
Deep ReLU networks with extra parameters have mostly good loss landscapes.
The problem of state estimation for unobservable distribution systems is considered. A deep learning approach to Bayesian state estimation is proposed for real-time applications. The proposed technique consists of distribution learning of stochastic power injection, a Monte Carlo technique for the training of a deep ne…