A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved electrical load forecasting model using Fourier-enhanced RNN.
Study shows cognitive load impacts financial market efficiency, especially for less sophisticated investors.
Method identifies dual cognitive system interactions using eye-tracking data.
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Bayesian Transformer improves probabilistic load forecasting with calibrated uncertainty estimates.
Energy disaggregation, known in the literature as Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), is the task of inferring the power demand of the individual appliances given the aggregate power demand recorded by a single smart meter which monitors multiple appliances. In this paper, we propose a deep neural network that combin…
As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution strategies is proposed, with particular attention to the behavior and dynamics of elect…
Non-intrusive load monitoring addresses the challenging task of decomposing the aggregate signal of a household's electricity consumption into appliance-level data without installing dedicated meters. By detecting load malfunction and recommending energy reduction programs, cost-effective non-intrusive load monitoring …
An accurate load forecasting has always been one of the main indispensable parts in the operation and planning of power systems. Among different time horizons of forecasting, while short-term load forecasting (STLF) and long-term load forecasting (LTLF) have respectively got benefits of accurate predictors and probabil…
UniPhyNet improves cognitive load classification accuracy using EEG, ECG, and EDA signals.
The softmax content-based attention mechanism has proven to be very beneficial in many applications of recurrent neural networks. Nevertheless it suffers from two major computational limitations. First, its computations for an attention lookup scale linearly in the size of the attended sequence. Second, it does not enc…
Perceptual capabilities of artificial systems have come a long way since the advent of deep learning. These methods have proven to be effective, however they are not as efficient as their biological counterparts. Visual attention is a set of mechanisms that are employed in biological visual systems to ease computationa…
Traditional load analysis is facing challenges with the new electricity usage patterns due to demand response as well as increasing deployment of distributed generations, including photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EV), and energy storage systems (ESS). At the transmission system, despite of irregular load behavio…
Asynchronous parallel optimization algorithms for solving large-scale machine learning problems have drawn significant attention from academia to industry recently. This paper proposes a novel algorithm, decoupled asynchronous proximal stochastic gradient descent (DAP-SGD), to minimize an objective function that is the…
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
Data loading can dominate deep neural network training time on large-scale systems. We present a comprehensive study on accelerating data loading performance in large-scale distributed training. We first identify performance and scalability issues in current data loading implementations. We then propose optimizations t…
HIV RNA viral load (VL) is an important outcome variable in studies of HIV infected persons. There exists only a handful of methods which classify patients by viral load patterns. Most methods place limits on the use of viral load measurements, are often specific to a particular study design, and do not account for com…
In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a standard practice is then to specify a prior under which the loadings are indepe…
Paper uses econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution for short-term load forecasting.
Deep learning boosts building energy load forecasting.
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Comp…
New method infers viral load from pooled tests.
We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…
With the increasing complexity of modern power systems, conventional dynamic load modeling with ZIP and induction motors (ZIP + IM) is no longer adequate to address the current load characteristic transitions. In recent years, the WECC composite load model (WECC CLM) has shown to effectively capture the dynamic load re…
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent stochasticity. At the aggregate levels, such as monthly load at a grid, the uncerta…
This paper uses a diffusion model to forecast electrical loads with uncertainty.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
New method predicts heat load in thermal grids using latent variables.
The paper is motivated by a problem concerning the monotonicity of insurance premiums with respect to their loading parameter: the larger the parameter, the larger the insurance premium is expected to be. This property, usually called loading monotonicity, is satisfied by premiums that appear in the literature. The inc…
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
This paper monetizes customer load data to boost energy retailer profits.
Study finds cherry-picking load shaping strategies outperforms others in reducing grid CO2 emissions.
Develops a method to analyze SARS-CoV-2 viral load vs. age, finding a significant increase.
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
MPTE uses Transformer attention to estimate mixed-frequency factor models.
Machine learning reconstructs aerodynamic forces from noisy data.
Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore, improving the accuracy of power load forecasting has always been the pursuing goals…
In this paper, we propose and study opportunistic bandits - a new variant of bandits where the regret of pulling a suboptimal arm varies under different environmental conditions, such as network load or produce price. When the load/price is low, so is the cost/regret of pulling a suboptimal arm (e.g., trying a suboptim…
Improves distributed SGD convergence speed with reduced computation load.
Novel method improves load estimation in power grids using anomaly and change point detection.
In this paper, we propose a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based mobility load balancing (MLB) algorithm along with a two-layer architecture to solve the large-scale load balancing problem for ultra-dense networks (UDNs). Our contribution is three-fold. First, this work proposes a two-layer architecture to solve the…
This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN) which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours into the future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the input data is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters is conducted in order to gain information about …
New algorithm for shareable arms with load-dependent rewards in stochastic bandits.