Study compares two methods for predicting extreme atmospheric events.
problem Forecasting threshold exceedances of atmospheric variables like temperature and wind speed.
method Direct vs. full distribution probabilistic methods for rare events.
result Full distribution approach outperforms direct method for extreme events.
New model identifies anticyclonic patterns causing drought and heat.
problem Identifying atmospheric drivers of drought and heat.
method Smoothed convolutional neural network classifier for anticyclonic circulations.
result Helps identify important drivers of hot and dry extremes in climate simulations.
Reduced-order model improves LES for atmospheric pollutant dispersion.
problem Accurate near-field pollutant concentration tracking in urban areas.
method Combining POD and GPR for non-intrusive reduced-order modeling.
result Component-by-component optimization captures spatial scales in high-order modes.
TelePiT improves S2S forecasting by integrating physics and teleconnections.
problem Challenges in subseasonal-to-seasonal climate forecasting due to chaotic dynamics and complex interactions.
method Integrates physics and teleconnections into a transformer architecture with spherical embedding and multi-scale physics-informed neural ODE.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods across all forecast horizons.
Generative adversarial networks generate realistic, time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
problem Improving spatial resolution of low-resolution atmospheric images.
method Recurrent, stochastic super-resolution GAN for generating ensembles of time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
result The GAN produces realistic, temporally consistent super-resolution sequences for radar-measured precipitation and cloud optical thickness.
New method uses neural networks to interpolate stellar atmospheres with high precision.
problem Recover precise stellar model atmospheres from grids of models.
method Deep neural network with 1D convolutional auto-encoder for feature extraction.
result Higher precision compared to traditional methods.
Improved weather forecasting using deep CNN on cubed-sphere grid.
problem Global weather prediction accuracy and speed.
method Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) on cubed-sphere grid, offline mapping, loss minimization.
result Significantly improved weather forecasts, indefinitely stable, realistic patterns at long lead times.
TRAKNN detects rare atmospheric trajectories efficiently.
problem Detecting rare atmospheric anomalies over long periods.
method Unsupervised, recurrence-based kNN algorithm.
result Rare trajectories correspond to physical anomalies.
Optimized DMD for fast atmospheric chemistry forecasting.
problem Forecasting global atmospheric chemistry dynamics efficiently.
method Optimized Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for reduced order modeling.
result Significant improvement in computational speed and interpretability.
TemperatureGAN generates hourly atmospheric temperature data with high fidelity.
problem Generating accurate hourly atmospheric temperature data for climate risk assessment.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) conditioned on months, locations, and time periods.
result TemperatureGAN produces high-fidelity hourly atmospheric temperature data with good spatial and temporal consistency.
Machine learning improves sub-seasonal climate forecasting, especially gradient boosting and deep learning.
problem Predicting climate variables like temperature and precipitation in 2-week to 2-month time scales.
method Carefully constructed feature representations and ML approaches including gradient boosting and deep learning.
result ML methods can outperform climatological baselines and improve prediction accuracy.
ClimART dataset benchmarks ML emulators for atmospheric RT in climate models.
problem Lack of a comprehensive dataset and standardized practices for ML benchmarking in climate models.
method Builds ClimART, a large dataset with over 10 million samples, and presents novel baselines.
result Indicates shortcomings of prior datasets and network architectures.
New clustering method improves climate data analysis in Lesser Antilles.
problem Inducing undesirable effects in clustering algorithms using Euclidean distance.
method Replacing Euclidean distance with Expert Deviation (ED) based on symmetrized Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result KMS-ED produces more interpretable clusters with better discrimination of daily situations.
M-CaStLe discovers causal structures in multivariate space-time data.
problem Challenges in causal graph discovery for high-dimensional gridded data.
method Generalizes CaStLe to multivariate analyses, using local embeddings and pooling spatial replicates.
result More accurately recovers multivariate causal structure and identifies physical dynamics.
The aim of this paper is to construct natural geometrical objects on the 1-jet space J^1(T,R^5), where T/subsetR, like a non-linear connection, a generalized Cartan connection, together with its d-torsions and d-curvatures, a jet electromagnetic d-field and a jet Yang-Mills energy, starting from the given Lorenz atm…
Enhanced Zika spread forecasting using topological data analysis.
problem Challenging prediction of Zika virus spread due to nonlinear spatio-temporal dependency and lack of historical records.
method Integrates topological data analysis, specifically persistent homology, into predictive machine learning models.
result Ensemble forecasting improves Zika spread predictions in Brazil.
Time-aware deep learning methods improve spatial downscaling of atmospheric pollutants.
problem Transform coarse satellite data of atmospheric pollutants into high-resolution fields.
method Super-resolution deep residual networks and UNet architectures are extended with a temporal module encoding observation time.
result Temporal modules significantly improve downscaling performance and convergence speed.
In this work, a new approach for Sun tracking systems is presented. Due to the current system limitations regarding costs and operational problems, a new approach based on low cost, computer vision open hardware and deep learning has been developed. The preliminary tests carried out successfully in Plataforma solar de …
Although a key driver of Earth's climate system, global land-atmosphere energy fluxes are poorly constrained. Here we use machine learning to merge energy flux measurements from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers with remote sensing and meteorological data to estimate net radiation, latent and sensible heat and their uncer…
New method selects variables for GP regression using sparse projection.
problem Identifying environmental factors affecting metal corrosion.
method Sparse projection of input variables, gradient descent optimization, non-convex marginal likelihood.
result Proposed method outperforms benchmarks in variable selection accuracy.
Framework optimizes expensive manufacturing processes efficiently.
problem Optimizing input parameters for advanced manufacturing methods.
method Bayesian optimization with tailored acquisition function and parallel acquisition.
result Framework efficiently finds optimal parameters with minimal process cost.
We present Breizhcrops, a novel benchmark dataset for the supervised classification of field crops from satellite time series. We aggregated label data and Sentinel-2 top-of-atmosphere as well as bottom-of-atmosphere time series in the region of Brittany (Breizh in local language), north-east France. We compare seven r…
This paper describes a novel deep learning-based method for mitigating the effects of atmospheric distortion. We have built an end-to-end supervised convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct turbulence-corrupted video sequence. Our framework has been developed on the residual learning concept, where the spatio-…
Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a un…
New method uses neural networks to identify sources from limited data in complex systems.
problem Identifying sources from noisy and limited data in high-dimensional systems.
method Calibrating deep neural network surrogates to ensemble simulations and using Bayesian optimization for source identification.
result Reliable source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data and auxiliary processes.
Modeling wildfire aerosols using satellite data to predict solar radiation reduction.
problem Accurately estimate and predict AOD propagation from wildfires using multi-source satellite data.
method Physics-informed statistical modeling integrating multi-source satellite data with an advection-diffusion equation.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts AOD propagation and demonstrates model interpretability.
Physics-constrained deep learning predicts geophysical dynamics with boundedness.
problem Forecasting geophysical systems with hidden variables and incomplete observations.
method Physics-constrained neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representations with boundedness constraints.
result The approach generalizes learned dynamics to arbitrary initial conditions.
We construct and analyze symmetrized delay correlation matrices for empirical data sets for atmopheric and financial data to derive information about correlation between different entities of the time series over time. The information about correlations is obtained by comparing the results for the eigenvalue distributi…
Modeling air pollutants using data-driven techniques and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics.
problem Predicting concentrations of air pollutants using hidden physical laws.
method Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) for parsimonious systems of ordinary differential equations.
result More than half of the critical points are saddle points, indicating system instability.
In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a variety of natural pheno…
Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine learning (ML) models are widely used in different weather forecasting applications, …
HECT tests climate model outputs for reproducibility.
problem Ensuring climate models accurately reflect physical processes.
method Probabilistic classifiers for high-dimensional spatio-temporal data.
result A principled way to assess statistical reproducibility of climate models.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
In this paper, we introduce a new form of amortized variational inference by using the forward KL divergence in a joint-contrastive variational loss. The resulting forward amortized variational inference is a likelihood-free method as its gradient can be sampled without bias and without requiring any evaluation of eith…
New framework models complex spatial data with basis functions and graphical vectors.
problem Modeling highly-multivariate spatial processes with varying resolutions.
method Extends graphical lasso to multivariate Gaussian processes with independent graphical vectors at different resolutions, using an orthogonal basis and fusion penalty.
result Linear complexity and parsimonious conditional independence structure in multilevel graphical model.
Chemical transport models (CTMs), which simulate air pollution transport, transformation, and removal, are computationally expensive, largely because of the computational intensity of the chemical mechanisms: systems of coupled differential equations representing atmospheric chemistry. Here we investigate the potential…
Wind energy resource quantification, air pollution monitoring, and weather forecasting all rely on rapid, accurate measurement of local wind conditions. Visual observations of the effects of wind---the swaying of trees and flapping of flags, for example---encode information regarding local wind conditions that can pote…
Novel approach uses ENN for UQ in gust predictions, reducing RMSE and improving confidence.
problem Reducing bias and uncertainty in wind gust predictions.
method Evidential Neural Network (ENN) with Explainable AI.
result 47% reduction in RMSE, 95% coverage of observed gusts at 179 out of 266 stations.
xVAE models extreme turbulence events in turbulent flows.
problem Capturing extreme events in turbulent flows.
method Max-infinitely divisible process with heavy-tailed distributions embedded into a standard VAE framework.
result xVAE more robust in capturing extreme values compared to POD modes.
Treeging combines regression trees and kriging for spatial and space-time prediction.
problem Improving spatial and space-time prediction accuracy.
method Combines regression trees with kriging's covariance structures.
result Treeging outperforms kriging and random forest in various scenarios.
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch…
We present a technique for efficiently synthesizing images of atmospheric clouds using a combination of Monte Carlo integration and neural networks. The intricacies of Lorenz-Mie scattering and the high albedo of cloud-forming aerosols make rendering of clouds---e.g. the characteristic silverlining and the "whiteness" …
Study of rotating gravastars with de Sitter interiors and Kerr exteriors.
problem Understanding the spacetime structure of rotating gravastars and black hole mimickers.
method Exact analytical solutions for Cn metrics with de Sitter interiors and Kerr exteriors. result Existence of Cn metrics with arbitrary differentiability, respecting energy conditions. Bayesian deconditioning improves downscaling of spatial fields.
problem Challenges in refining low-resolution spatial fields with high-resolution information.
method Proposes a Bayesian formulation of deconditioning to solve the inverse problem of conditional expectation.
result Shows substantial improvements in atmospheric field downscaling over existing methods.
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.
This paper introduces a new unsupervised method for dimensionality reduction via regression (DRR). The algorithm belongs to the family of invertible transforms that generalize Principal Component Analysis (PCA) by using curvilinear instead of linear features. DRR identifies the nonlinear features through multivariate r…
Lagrangian data assimilation is a complex problem in oceanic and atmospheric modeling. Tracking drifters in large-scale geophysical flows can involve uncertainty in drifter location, complex inertial effects, and other factors which make comparing them to simulated Lagrangian trajectories from numerical models extremel…
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.