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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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51101152202 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for asymmetric counterfactual utilities

The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.

problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.

Flow IV uses IVs to infer counterfactuals in complex models.

problem Identifying causal effects and counterfactual reasoning in nonseparable outcome models.
method Utilizes instrumental variables and normalizing flows to estimate and infer counterfactual outcomes.
result Identifies a method to make causal inferences from observed data in nonseparable models.

Proposes an efficient method for ordered counterfactual explanations.

problem Insufficient explanation of perturbation vectors for executing actions.
method Mixed-Integer Linear Optimization (MILP) approach for evaluating and extracting optimal pairs of actions and orders.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the proposed method on real datasets.

Study counterfactuals in combinatorial choice using a representative agent model.

problem Analyzing decision-making from aggregated binary polytope data.
method Nonparametric approach based on a representative agent model, solving polynomial and mixed-integer convex programs.
result Developed a method for counterfactual prediction that works even under model misspecification.

The paper tackles strategic behavior in decision-making with counterfactual explanations.

problem Finding optimal counterfactual explanations and policies in a strategic setting.
method NP-hard problem, greedy algorithm, submodularity, randomized algorithm, matroid constraint.
result Optimal counterfactual explanations and policies increase utility.

Develops optimal decision-making framework for uncertain counterfactuals.

problem Ensuring reliability of predictions in high-stakes decisions.
method Policy-Coupled Risk-Averse Conformal Prediction (PC-RACP).
result Optimal prediction sets for counterfactual decisions with valid coverage.

New method warns of counterfactual non-identifiability in DSCMs.

problem Counterfactual inference from observational data is non-identifiable even without unobserved confounding.
method Prove counterfactual identifiability for monotonic generation mechanisms, provide impossibility result for general mechanisms, propose method for estimating worst-case errors.
result Non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in absence of unobserved confounding.

Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.

problem Optimizing portfolios for traders with delayed insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and white noise approach.
result Optimal portfolios maximize expected logarithmic utility under various financial models.

CounteRGAN generates realistic, actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.

problem Creating realistic and actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.
method Applying Residual GANs to improve counterfactual realism and actionability.
result CounteRGAN produces counterfactuals with improved realism and actionability, achieving real-time applicability.

DCM uses diffusion models to answer causal queries from observational data.

problem Answering causal queries from observational data alone.
method Diffusion models to learn causal mechanisms and generate latent encodings.
result Significant improvements over existing methods for causal query answering.

Study dynamic equilibrium with insider and general uninformed agent preferences.

problem Analyzing asymmetric information and general utility functions in a continuous-time economy.
method Introducing a new method to prove existence of a partial communication equilibrium (PCE) for agents with general utility functions.
result Identify the equilibrium price in the small and large risk aversion limits for agents with power utility.

Loss-calibrated EP improves Bayesian decision-making by focusing on utility-sensitive posterior approximations.

problem Bayesian decision-making under asymmetric utility functions.
method Loss-calibrated expectation propagation (Loss-EP) that tilts the posterior towards higher utility decisions.
result Loss-EP can capture useful information for decision-making under asymmetric penalties.

CONE evaluates treatment assignment functions using networked observational data to mitigate hidden confounding bias.

problem Evaluate treatment assignment functions using networked observational data with hidden confounders.
method CONE framework that learns partial representations of latent confounders and combines them for counterfactual evaluation.
result Network information mitigates hidden confounding bias in counterfactual evaluation.

The paper introduces CPICFs for better counterfactual explanations in high-dimensional spaces.

problem Creating useful counterfactual explanations for complex machine learning models.
method Modeling individual knowledge and using conformal prediction intervals to identify informative counterfactuals.
result CPICFs provide more informative counterfactuals by considering individual knowledge and prediction uncertainty.

New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.

problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.

We extend the theory of asymmetric information in mispricing models for stocks following geometric Brownian motion to constant relative risk averse investors. Mispricing follows a continuous mean--reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. Optimal portfolios and maximum expected log--linear utilities from terminal wealth f…

2011-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

In this work, we propose an introspection technique for deep neural networks that relies on a generative model to instigate salient editing of the input image for model interpretation. Such modification provides the fundamental interventional operation that allows us to obtain answers to counterfactual inquiries, i.e.,…

2019-07-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.

problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.

A new asymmetric contrastive loss improves performance on imbalanced datasets.

problem Improving performance on imbalanced datasets using contrastive learning.
method Introducing an asymmetric contrastive loss (ACL) and asymmetric focal contrastive loss (AFCL).
result AFCL outperforms CL and FCL in terms of weighted and unweighted classification accuracies on imbalanced datasets.

New HMC method uses asymmetrical momentum distributions and improves performance.

problem Rigorous convergence guarantees for HMC with Gaussian momentum distributions.
method New convergence analysis for HMC with general asymmetrical momentum distributions, proposing AD-HMC.
result AD-HMC exhibits geometric convergence in Wasserstein distance under certain conditions.

Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…

2015-07-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Minwise hashing (Minhash) is a widely popular indexing scheme in practice. Minhash is designed for estimating set resemblance and is known to be suboptimal in many applications where the desired measure is set overlap (i.e., inner product between binary vectors) or set containment. Minhash has inherent bias towards sma…

2014-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces a method to evaluate abstaining classifiers by considering missing predictions as counterfactuals.

problem Lack of a principled approach to evaluate and compare abstaining classifiers, especially when missing predictions are important.
method Develops a novel approach to treat abstentions as missing data, defining counterfactual scores and using causal inference methods to estimate them.
result Shows that under certain conditions, counterfactual scores can be identified and estimated efficiently, improving evaluation of abstaining classifiers.

ADGAN improves risk tolerance prediction by aligning cross-domain data.

problem Lack of professional knowledge and domain-specific models in risk tolerance studies.
method Asymmetric cross-Domain Generative Adversarial Network (ADGAN) for domain scale inequality.
result ADGAN better handles class imbalance and unqualified data than state-of-the-art methods.

Improves matrix multiplication throughput for asymmetric bit-width operands.

problem Matrix multiplications between asymmetric bit-width operands, especially 8- and 4-bit, are not efficiently handled by existing SIMD instructions.
method Proposes a new SIMD matrix multiplication instruction that uses mixed precision on inputs (8- and 4-bit) and accumulates into 16-bit output, improving throughput.
result Offers 2x improvement in throughput compared to existing symmetric-operand-size instructions, with negligible overflow.

This work transfers causal knowledge between tasks for Individual Treatment Effect estimation.

problem Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) requires a large amount of data, making it challenging.
method The authors introduce a practical framework for efficient transfer of causal knowledge between tasks, using a Causal Inference Task Affinity (CITA) measure.
result ITE knowledge transfer can significantly reduce the amount of data needed for ITE estimation.

Proposes methods to identify and estimate counterfactual distributions with confounding.

problem Estimating counterfactual distributions in the presence of confounding.
method Nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation using conditional copulas and machine learning.
result Valid inference for individual-level effects and nonparametric identifiability of latent confounding subspace.

Hashing has been widely used for large-scale approximate nearest neighbor search because of its storage and search efficiency. Recent work has found that deep supervised hashing can significantly outperform non-deep supervised hashing in many applications. However, most existing deep supervised hashing methods adopt a …

2017-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a method for generating understandable and attainable counterfactual explanations for tabular data.

problem Ensuring counterfactual explanations are both interpretable and attainable for individuals.
method Combines quality measures with manifold learning techniques to generate counterfactuals that are both proximate and connected to regions of high data density.
result Proposes a framework (C-CHVAE) for generating attainable counterfactuals that are also interpretable.

DeDUCE efficiently generates realistic counterfactuals for image classifiers.

problem Generating accurate counterfactual explanations for large image classifiers.
method Developed a new algorithm using spectral normalization to efficiently generate counterfactuals.
result Our algorithm consistently produces counterfactuals closer to the original inputs with comparable realism.

We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.

problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.

A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.

problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.

New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.

problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.

The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.

problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.

New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.

problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.

The paper introduces new portfolio rules beyond mean-variance, addressing asymmetry and uncertainty.

problem Optimizing portfolios with asymmetric returns and uncertainty in expected returns.
method Derives allocation rules for asymmetric Laplace distributed returns and random normal expected returns. Addresses singular covariance matrices and uncertainty in returns.
result Optimal worst-case scenario solution provides a convex alternative to risk parity, improving portfolio stability.

Survey of deep causal models for industrial applications.

problem Estimating causal effects using deep learning.
method Deep causal models map covariates to a representation space and use objective functions for unbiased counterfactual data estimation.
result Comprehensive overview of deep causal models with industry applications.

Counterfactual data augmentations may not ensure OOD robustness if performed by a context-guessing machine.

problem Deep learning models lack out-of-distribution robustness due to reliance on spurious features.
method Theoretical analysis and demonstration of counterfactual data augmentations performed by a context-guessing machine.
result Counterfactual data augmentations by a context-guessing machine do not lead to robust OOD classifiers.