A mixture of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions is introduced and used for clustering and classification. A variant of the EM algorithm is developed for parameter estimation by exploiting the relationship with the general inverse Gaussian distribution. This approach is mathematically elegant and relatively comput…
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48 results for “asymmetric Laplace distribution”
Paper proposes GAS-ALD model for financial risk prediction.
problem Skewed distribution of financial return data.
method Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD).
result GAS-ALD model predicts VaR and ES more accurately than traditional models.
A family of parsimonious shifted asymmetric Laplace mixture models is introduced. We extend the mixture of factor analyzers model to the shifted asymmetric Laplace distribution. Imposing constraints on the constitute parts of the resulting decomposed component scale matrices leads to a family of parsimonious models. An…
Mixtures of multivariate contaminated shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions are developed for handling asymmetric clusters in the presence of outliers (also referred to as bad points herein). In addition to the parameters of the related non-contaminated mixture, for each (asymmetric) cluster, our model has one param…
This paper introduces constrained mixtures for continuous distributions, characterized by a mixture of distributions where each distribution has a shape similar to the base distribution and disjoint domains. This new concept is used to create generalized asymmetric versions of the Laplace and normal distributions, whic…
Generalized Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Distribution Described by Asymmetric Laplace Mixture Modellingphysics.geo-ph
The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), above completeness magnitude mc, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. The parameter mc however varies in space due to the seismic network configuration, yielding a convoluted FMD shape below max(mc). This paper investigates the shape…
Modeling stock returns and volatility using a bivariate gamma generalized Laplace law.
problem Analyzing stock returns and volatility using a new statistical model.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for a bivariate generalized Laplace distribution, simplifying to linear regression.
result Explicit estimators derived with nonstandard convergence rates for certain parameter configurations.
We analyze a simple asset transfer model in which the transfer amount is a fixed fraction of the giver's wealth. The model is analyzed in a new way by Laplace transforming the master equation, solving it analytically and numerically for the steady-state distribution, and exploring the solutions for various values o…
New VAE model improves data fitting without sacrificing computational efficiency.
problem Limitation of Gaussian assumption in VAE for continuous variable fitting.
method Infinite mixture of asymmetric Laplace distribution in decoder, nonparametric M-estimator for quantile estimation.
result Model demonstrates superior data privacy adjustment and better distribution fitting.
The paper introduces new portfolio rules beyond mean-variance, addressing asymmetry and uncertainty.
problem Optimizing portfolios with asymmetric returns and uncertainty in expected returns.
method Derives allocation rules for asymmetric Laplace distributed returns and random normal expected returns. Addresses singular covariance matrices and uncertainty in returns.
result Optimal worst-case scenario solution provides a convex alternative to risk parity, improving portfolio stability.
Ensemble Quantile Classifierstat.ML
Both the median-based classifier and the quantile-based classifier are useful for discriminating high-dimensional data with heavy-tailed or skewed inputs. But these methods are restricted as they assign equal weight to each variable in an unregularized way. The ensemble quantile classifier is a more flexible regularize…
Diffusion Epistemic Uncertainty with Asymmetric Learning for Diffusion-Generated Image Detectioncs.CV
DEUA detects diffusion-generated images by accounting for different types of uncertainty.
problem Detecting generated images with varying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method DEUA framework using Laplace approximation for DEU estimation and asymmetric loss function.
result DEUA achieves state-of-the-art performance on large-scale benchmarks.
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
Bayesian QFSTS model tackles feature selection in quantile time series analysis.
problem Quantile feature selection in correlated multivariate time series data.
method Bayesian dimension reduction methodology using QFSTS model with multivariate asymmetric Laplace distribution, spike-and-slab prior, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Bayesian model averaging.
result QFSTS model outperforms in feature selection, parameter estimation, and forecasting.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Joint Forecastingstat.ML
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace density has led to a flexible likelihood-based framework for joint modelling of VaR an…
Low-rank matrix factorization (LRMF) has received much popularity owing to its successful applications in both computer vision and data mining. By assuming noise to come from a Gaussian, Laplace or mixture of Gaussian distributions, significant efforts have been made on optimizing the (weighted) or -norm los…
In recent years, correntropy has been seccessfully applied to robust adaptive filtering to eliminate adverse effects of impulsive noises or outliers. Correntropy is generally defined as the expectation of a Gaussian kernel between two random variables. This definition is reasonable when the error between the two random…
The ACCRU framework improves probabilistic forecasts by capturing input-dependent uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic predictions, especially for skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
method Neural network trained with a loss function balancing accuracy and reliability to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions.
result Improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, capturing skewed and non-Gaussian errors.
Skew Gaussian Processes improve classification performance by allowing asymmetry.
problem Limited use of Gaussian processes in applications requiring asymmetry.
method Propose Skew-Gaussian processes (SkewGPs) as a non-parametric prior over functions, extending the multivariate Unified Skew-Normal distribution to stochastic processes.
result SkewGPs provide better performance than symmetric Gaussian processes in classification tasks.
Sparse Gaussian process quantile regression tackles computational challenges in Bayesian quantile regression.
problem Nonconjugacy and computational cost in Gaussian process quantile regression.
method Sparse Gaussian process framework with Laplace approximation, adaptive inducing-input placement, and sequential data acquisition.
result Accuracy of Laplace approximation and effectiveness of adaptive mechanisms in reducing predictive uncertainty.
An analytic solution for asset allocation with Laplace distribution.
problem Asset allocation with multivariate Laplace distribution.
method Specialization of elliptically symmetric distribution theory to Laplace distribution, accounting for dimensionality and variance rescaling.
result A result consistent with conjecture but with differences due to omitted term and rescaling.
Local asymptotic minimax risk bounds in a locally asymptotically mixture of normal family of distributions have been investigated under asymmetric loss functions and the asymptotic distribution of the optimal estimator that attains the bound has been obtained.
New HMC method uses asymmetrical momentum distributions and improves performance.
problem Rigorous convergence guarantees for HMC with Gaussian momentum distributions.
method New convergence analysis for HMC with general asymmetrical momentum distributions, proposing AD-HMC.
result AD-HMC exhibits geometric convergence in Wasserstein distance under certain conditions.
This paper applies Thompson Sampling to asymmetric -stable bandits for financial and wireless data.
problem Optimizing exploration-exploitation in multi-armed bandits with asymmetric -stable distributions.
method Thompson Sampling applied to unknown asymmetric -stable reward distributions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of Thompson Sampling for asymmetric -stable bandits.
Bayesian VI copula models capture asymmetric intraday equity dependence.
problem Modeling asymmetric and extreme tail dependence in financial data.
method Bayesian variational inference for skew-t copula models in high dimensions.
result The copula captures substantial heterogeneity in asymmetric dependence over equity pairs and time.
Tail risk forecasting with semi-parametric regression models by incorporating overnight informationq-fin.RM
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
problem Improving tail risk forecasting in financial markets.
method Proposes RES-CAViaR-oc models combining overnight return and realized volatility, using Bayesian estimation.
result Realized volatility and overnight return significantly improve tail risk forecasting.
The generalized correlation approach, which has been successfully used in statistical radio physics to describe non-Gaussian random processes, is proposed to describe stochastic financial processes. The generalized correlation approach has been used to describe a non-Gaussian random walk with independent, identically d…
Innovative Extensions to Option Pricing: Asymmetric Brownian Motion and Random Walk Approachesq-fin.MF
Innovative extensions to option pricing models using asymmetric Brownian motion and random walk approaches.
problem Capturing empirical phenomena like return skewness, heavy tails, and volatility asymmetry in option pricing models.
method Developing the Geometric Asymmetric Brownian Motion (GABM) within the Bachelier--Black--Scholes--Merton framework.
result Deriving closed-form option pricing formulas and a discrete-time binomial tree algorithm that converges to the GABM limit.
Risk Margin Quantile Function Via Parametric and Non-Parametric Bayesian Quantile Regressionq-fin.RM
We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an accurate estimation of risk ma…
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.
problem Normalizing flows struggle with multivariate extremes and asymmetric tail dependence.
method COMET Flows decomposes modeling into marginal and copula parts; uses tail belief and kernel density for marginals, and low-dimensional manifold for tail dependence.
result COMET Flows outperform other models in capturing heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence.
ASK-NN: An Asymmetric Nearest-Neighbor Test that detects Distribution Drifts in Natural Languagecs.LG
ASK-NN detects distribution drifts in LLM-generated text.
problem Hallucinations and artificial text in LLM-generated outputs.
method Asymmetric two-sample test based on directed k-nearest-neighbor graph.
result ASK-NN is competitive with baselines on various benchmarks.
TSVQR captures heterogeneous and asymmetric data using quantile regression.
problem Capturing heterogeneous and asymmetric information in modern data.
method Twin Support Vector Quantile Regression (TSVQR) with two nonparallel planes for quantile levels.
result TSVQR outperforms previous methods in capturing and learning from data.
This work models financial market returns with asymmetric Tsallis distributions, improving fit over symmetric q-Gaussians.
problem Non-symmetric behavior of stock market returns over time scales.
method Linear combination of two independent normalized half q-Gaussians with different parameters.
result Asymmetric distributions provide better fits to stock market returns than symmetric q-Gaussians, especially over longer time scales.
Forecasting VaR and ES using a joint quantile regression and implications in portfolio allocationq-fin.RM
Paper proposes a joint quantile regression for VaR and ES forecasting.
problem Forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple assets simultaneously.
method Multivariate quantile regression framework with time-varying process for VaR and ES.
result The proposed method outperforms other models in risk measure forecasts.
How Do Output Growth Rate Distributions Look Like? Some Time-Series Evidence on OECD Countriesphysics.soc-ph
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…
Tsallis Relative entropy from asymmetric distributions as a risk measure for financial portfoliosq-fin.ST
New method uses asymmetric Tsallis relative entropy for better risk assessment in financial portfolios.
problem Improving risk assessment for financial portfolios using asymmetric data.
method Generalized Tsallis relative entropy (ATRE) for asymmetric distributions of returns.
result ATRE shows better risk-return profiles, especially during market crashes.
Regulating stochastic clocksq-fin.ST
Improved stochastic clocks for financial models without increasing trades.
problem Dealing with asymmetrical and tail risks in financial returns.
method Proposes a new approach to regulate Lévy subordinators for financial models.
result Achieves arbitrarily large skewness and excess kurtosis of returns.
Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning improves over point estimates with Laplace approximation.
problem Improving meta-reinforcement learning by providing full posterior distributions.
method Augmenting point estimates with Laplace approximation for full posterior distributions.
result Our method performs similarly to variational baselines with fewer parameters.
Domain adaptation addresses the common problem when the target distribution generating our test data drifts from the source (training) distribution. While absent assumptions, domain adaptation is impossible, strict conditions, e.g. covariate or label shift, enable principled algorithms. Recently-proposed domain-adversa…
Study of asymmetric rank-one tensor models with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Analyzing maximum-likelihood estimators for asymmetric rank-one tensor models.
method Spectrally separated branch analysis, resolvent methods, cumulant expansions, Efron-Stein-type variance bounds.
result Asymptotic singular value and mode-wise alignments are robust to non-Gaussian noise.
Bayesian inference for CoVaRstat.ME
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to acco…
Corrected and improved simulation methods for Dirichlet-Laplace prior.
problem Incorrect sampling order in original MCMC method for DL prior.
method Provided two solutions: correction and alternative algorithm.
result Improved simulation methods for DL prior without affecting theoretical results.
Improved bounds for estimating discrete distributions in KL divergence.
problem Estimating discrete distributions in KL divergence with accuracy.
method Used Laplace estimator and established concentration bounds.
result Deviation from mean scales as for .
QLA improves Bayesian uncertainty estimation for DNNs without increasing computational cost.
problem Overconfident out-of-distribution predictions from DNNs.
method Proposes Quadratic Laplace Approximation (QLA) to improve Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
result QLA yields modest yet consistent uncertainty estimation improvements over Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) on five regression datasets.
New method optimizes portfolios with options, addressing asymmetry, dimensionality, and dependence.
problem Optimizing portfolios with options, especially when distributions are asymmetric, dimensions are high, and payoffs are dependent.
method Developed a new dependency matrix based on conditional probabilities of options' payoffs, computed using copula structures.
result Empirical evidence shows the approach is efficient, fast, and scalable to large portfolios of options.
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
Implementation of an Asymmetric Adjusted Activation Function for Class Imbalance Credit Scoringcs.LG
A new activation function improves credit scoring accuracy for imbalanced datasets.
problem Imbalanced datasets in credit scoring lead to underestimation of misclassification costs.
method Introduces ASIG, an asymmetric adjusted Sigmoid function.
result ASIG-embedded classifier outperforms traditional classifiers across various imbalance ratios.