The study models market price movement based on investors' expectations.
problem Understanding the dynamics of investors' expectations and market price movement.
method Developed a non-linear evolutionary equation linking investors' expectations and market asset price movement.
result Model predictions co-integrated with asset time series, suggesting potential for price movement forecasting.
The study introduces a new stickiness parameter for stock prices using a non-linear model.
problem Understanding how closely individual stocks follow a stock index's price movements.
method Developed a non-linear pricing model inspired by tectonic plate movements to measure stickiness.
result Defined a stickiness parameter for stock price returns using a novel model.
We take a look the changes of different asset prices over variable periods, using both traditional and spectral methods, and discover universality phenomena which hold (in some cases) across asset classes.
Risk hedging can reduce operational costs by adjusting prices and production levels in response to asset price movements.
problem How risk hedging impacts operational decisions in response to asset price movements.
method Developed and solved a risk-management model integrating risk hedging into a price-setting newsvendor problem.
result Hedging generally reduces optimal price and VPQ, but may increase VPQ under certain conditions.
Support vector machines predict cryptocurrency price movements with high accuracy.
problem Predicting short-term price movements in cryptocurrencies.
method Developed technical indicators, tested various classification methods, including SVM.
result Support vector machines yield the most profitable trading strategies.
Study shows integrating OFI from multiple levels improves price impact explanation but not forecasting.
problem Explaining and forecasting price movements in equity markets using OFI.
method Systematic approach to combine OFIs from multiple levels into an integrated variable, testing multi-asset models with and without cross-impact terms.
result Lagged cross-asset OFIs improve future return forecasting but not contemporaneous price impact.
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
problem Including market microstructure effects in dynamic asset pricing.
method Discrete binary tree model with history-dependent underlying security prices.
result The model preserves historical price dynamics and is market-complete, arbitrage-free.
PreBit predicts Bitcoin price movements using social media and financial data.
problem Predicting extreme price movements of Bitcoin due to its volatility and speculative trading.
method Hybrid model combining FinBERT embeddings of Twitter content with candlestick data and technical indicators.
result The hybrid model can predict significant market movements with a profitable trading strategy.
LARA forecasts financial asset trends by refining noisy labels and extracting profitable samples.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic nature of financial data lead to poor predictions.
method LARA combines LA-Attention and RA-Labeling to refine and extract profitable samples.
result LARA significantly outperforms existing methods on Qlib platform.
Triangle fees adjust fees based on trade size and price movement, improving price accuracy and revenue.
problem Price staleness and low fee revenue in AMMs.
method Decreasing marginal fees proportional to price movement, creating incentives for price accuracy.
result Triangle fees strictly improve the Pareto frontier of price accuracy versus losses.
Equity options are known to be notoriously difficult to price accurately, and even with the development of established mathematical models there are many assumptions that must be made about the underlying processes driving market movements. As such, the theoretical prices outputted by these models are often slightly di…
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk…
New metric to measure liquidity position PNL, delta hedging algorithm for automated market makers.
problem Vulnerability of liquidity positions to price changes in underlying assets.
method Proposes a new metric for measuring PNL, delta hedging algorithm for various AMMs.
result New metric more accurately measures net value change due to price movement.
BreakGPT predicts asset price surges using LLMs.
problem Predicting sharp upward movements in volatile financial markets.
method Adapts LLMs for time series forecasting, combining LLM capabilities with Transformer models.
result BreakGPT effectively captures local and global temporal dependencies.
In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by the market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if t…
SARL uses predicted asset movements to improve financial portfolio management.
problem Maximizing profits or minimizing risks in financial planning.
method State-Augmented RL framework that incorporates diverse asset information and price movement predictions.
result SARL outperforms existing PM approaches in terms of accumulated profits and risk-adjusted profits.
Diversification of an investment into independently fluctuating assets reduces its risk. In reality, movement of assets are are mutually correlated and therefore knowledge of cross--correlations among asset price movements are of great importance. Our results support the possibility that the problem of finding an inves…
Deep learning predicts Bitcoin spot price movements from order books.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency spot price movements from order book data.
method Temporal CNNs trained on 2-second prediction time horizon.
result 71% walk-forward accuracy on coinbase data.
Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) is used to replicate the signal combination process that trading rules embody when they aggregate multiple sources of financial information when predicting an asset's price movements. A set of financially motivated kernels is constructed for the EURUSD currency pair and is used to predict…
Study finds social media investor emotions predict stock prices.
problem Validation of social media sentiment models in predicting market behavior.
method Employed EmTract, an emotion model, to test social media sentiment against lab experiments.
result Firm-specific investor emotions forecast daily asset price movements.
Study predicts cryptocurrency price movements using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting short-term price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Conditional examination of return and excess return rates following tweet publication.
result Statistically significant increases in return rates within the first three minutes after tweet publication.
In this chapter we studied the nonlinear co-movements between the Mexican Crude Oil price, the Mexican Stock Market Index and the USD/MXN Exchange Rate, for the sample period from 1994 to date. We used a battery of nonlinear tests, cf. (Patterson & Ashley, 2000) and one multivariate test, in order to determine the dyna…
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov proc…
Proposes neural model for stock embeddings to capture nuanced asset correlations.
problem Lack of research on modelling financial asset correlations.
method Neural model using historical returns data to learn nuanced relationships.
result Outperforms benchmarks in two real-world financial analytics tasks.
Bitcoin volatility can be predicted from price and alternative data.
problem Predicting Bitcoin volatility from market data.
method Modeling Bitcoin volatility using price, volatility momentum, and alternative data like sentiment and engagement.
result Bitcoin volatility can be predicted with a lag of several hours.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements from trade data.
problem Predicting short-term price changes in cryptocurrencies.
method Long Short-term Memory Network (LSTM) trained on trade-by-trade data.
result Optimal LSTM model achieves over 60% accuracy on out-of-sample test periods.
This paper explores the possibility that asset prices, especially those traded in large volume on public exchanges, might comply with specific physical laws of motion and probability. The paper first examines the basic dynamics of asset price displacement and finds one can model this dynamic as a harmonic oscillator at…
The Autoencoder Reconstruction Ratio detects increased asset co-movements.
problem Detecting changes in asset co-movements for risk management.
method Uses a deep sparse denoising autoencoder to measure asset returns with latent variables.
result Lower ARR values indicate periods of market weakness and increased volatility.
This research improves option pricing models using Heston, GARCH, and jump diffusion models.
problem Inaccurate option pricing due to Black-Scholes assumptions.
method Monte Carlo simulation, GARCH model, Heston model, Merton jump-diffusion model.
result Heston model produces estimates closer to market prices, Merton model performs well for volatile assets, GARCH model improves volatility forecasts.
We use insight from a model of earth tectonic plate movement to obtain a new understanding of the build up and release of stress in the price dynamics of the worlds stock exchanges. Nonlinearity enters the model due to a behavioral attribute of humans reacting disproportionately to big changes. This nonlinear response …
New deep learning method for option pricing in jump-diffusion models.
problem Option pricing in jump-diffusion models with high-dimensional assets.
method Implicit-explicit minimizing movement time-stepping approach using deep ANNs.
result Consistent and asymptotically correct solutions for large underlyings.
MarketGAN generates financial returns using GANs to match empirical stylized facts.
problem Generating financial returns under data scarcity and preserving stylized facts.
method Generative adversarial learning with a TCN backbone.
result MarketGAN outperforms conventional methods in portfolio applications.
DeepFolio uses neural networks to predict stock price movements from LOB data.
problem Predicting price movements from LOB data.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for portfolio management.
result DeepFolio outperforms state-of-the-art models in various scenarios.
Graph auto-encoders predict stock market instability by measuring graph structure changes.
problem Forecasting stock market instability and volatility.
method Use graph auto-encoders to reconstruct graph structure and measure changes.
result Higher GAE reconstruction error correlates with higher volatility.
Quantum walk model captures asymmetry and bimodality in long-term financial returns.
problem Inadequate classical models for long-term financial return distributions.
method Discrete-time quantum walk model.
result Captures bimodal and asymmetric probability distributions.
Paper predicts market implied volatility using alternative data and machine learning.
problem Predicting market implied volatility using alternative data.
method Used Google News statistics and Wikipedia site traffic as alternative data sources, and applied Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, and AdaBoost as machine learning models.
result Movements in market implied volatility can be predicted using machine learning techniques.
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset return dynamics in which frequencies of the up and down movements of asset price hav…
The paper models financial asset prices with jumps and evaluates European option prices using numerical methods.
problem Modeling and pricing European options with jumps in delayed stochastic systems.
method Existence, uniqueness, and positivity of solutions to delayed stochastic differential equations with jumps. Application of Fourier transformation for analytical pricing and Monte-Carlo simulation with a logarithmic Euler-Maruyama scheme for numerical approximation.
result The logarithmic Euler-Maruyama scheme provides a positive and convergent method for approximating the solution to the delayed stochastic differential equations with jumps.
Dynamic factor analysis reveals insights into Philippine stock market dynamics.
problem Understanding complex stock market dynamics.
method Dynamic factor model using Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Common factors extracted from the model represent market trends and volatility.
This research introduces dynamic portfolio cuts using a spectral approach for graph-theoretic diversification.
problem Traditional methods for estimating asset-return covariance assume statistical time-invariance, failing to capture the nonstationary nature of asset price movements.
method Introduces graph spectral estimators that account for nonstationarity, partitioning the market graph into time-evolving clusters for dynamic portfolio cuts.
result Demonstrates the advantages of the proposed framework over traditional methods through numerical case studies using real-world price data.
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market behavior based on news and investor beliefs.
method A discrete-time model of heterogeneous beliefs where some agents receive noisy signals about asset fundamentals.
result Momentum and reversal in stock prices arise from investors' incorrect beliefs about signal accuracy and fundamental values.
We demonstrate that future market correlation structure can be predicted with high out-of-sample accuracy using a multiplex network approach that combines information from social media and financial data. Market structure is measured by quantifying the co-movement of asset prices returns, while social structure is meas…
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a…
This paper examines momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data.
problem Challenges in studying momentum spillover across diverse asset classes due to lack of common characteristics.
method Utilised a linear and interpretable graph learning model to reveal momentum spillover network.
result Network momentum strategy yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%.
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is determined by a collection of independent market factors called X-factors. The ma…
This paper predicts significant stock price changes using neural networks.
problem Predicting significant stock price changes.
method Three neural network models (MLP, CNN, LSTM) and two benchmark models (Random Forest, Relative Strength Index) were tested on 10-year daily stock price data of four major US companies.
result Neural network models significantly outperform traditional methods in predicting significant stock price changes.
Taureau uses Twitter sentiment analysis to predict stock market movement.
problem Predicting stock market movement using public opinion on Twitter.
method Obtained historical tweets, filtered and labeled, generated word embeddings, assessed sentiment scores, correlated with stock price movement, designed and evaluated predictive model.
result Taureau can predict stock price movement from lagged sentiment scores.
New model predicts implied volatility using past asset price paths.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces and asset prices.
method Proposes a new model using past asset price trajectories to predict implied volatility.
result Large part of implied volatility movements can be explained by past returns and squares.