A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ARMS improves gradient estimation for binary variables using antithetic samples.
CARMS improves gradient estimation for categorical variables.
DisARM improves gradient estimation for binary latent variables.
This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to value quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
Antithetic noise improves diffusion models' uncertainty quantification.
New method estimates nested expectations with biased and antithetic sampling.
Stochastic optimization techniques are standard in variational inference algorithms. These methods estimate gradients by approximating expectations with independent Monte Carlo samples. In this paper, we explore a technique that uses correlated, but more representative , samples to reduce estimator variance. Specifical…
(Mini-batch) Stochastic Gradient Descent is a popular optimization method which has been applied to many machine learning applications. But a rather high variance introduced by the stochastic gradient in each step may slow down the convergence. In this paper, we propose the antithetic sampling strategy to reduce the va…
Improved MLMC method boosts risk estimation efficiency.
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
In the modern age, rankings data is ubiquitous and it is useful for a variety of applications such as recommender systems, multi-object tracking and preference learning. However, most rankings data encountered in the real world is incomplete, which prevents the direct application of existing modelling tools for complet…
To backpropagate the gradients through stochastic binary layers, we propose the augment-REINFORCE-merge (ARM) estimator that is unbiased, exhibits low variance, and has low computational complexity. Exploiting variable augmentation, REINFORCE, and reparameterization, the ARM estimator achieves adaptive variance reducti…
New algorithm reduces variance in stochastic gradient estimation.
A new method improves graph random features with quasi-Monte Carlo techniques.
In this paper we introduce a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for multi-dimensional SDEs driven by Brownian motions. Giles has previously shown that if we combine a numerical approximation with strong order of convergence with MLMC we can reduce the computational complexity to estimate expected value…
Framework for sensitivity analysis in biomanufacturing processes.
Study compares models for pricing multi-strike quanto call options with SV, SC, and SER.
Study shows different price correlations in European electricity markets.
Variational Optimization forms a differentiable upper bound on an objective. We show that approaches such as Natural Evolution Strategies and Gaussian Perturbation, are special cases of Variational Optimization in which the expectations are approximated by Gaussian sampling. These approaches are of particular interest …
We study a wide class of non-convex non-concave min-max games that generalizes over standard bilinear zero-sum games. In this class, players control the inputs of a smooth function whose output is being applied to a bilinear zero-sum game. This class of games is motivated by the indirect nature of the competition in Ge…
In this paper, we are interested in the strong convergence properties of the Ninomiya-Victoir scheme which is known to exhibit weak convergence with order 2. We prove strong convergence with order . This study is aimed at analysing the use of this scheme either at each level or only at the finest level of a multil…
A new volatility model calibrates SPX & VIX smiles with 6 parameters.
This paper considers the problem of estimating an unknown high dimensional signal from noisy linear measurements, {when} the signal is assumed to possess a \emph{group-sparse} structure in a {known,} fixed dictionary. We consider signals generated according to a natural probabilistic model, and establish new conditions…
Adaptive SAA solves large-scale stochastic linear programs efficiently.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…
VC-PCR improves prediction by clustering correlated variables.
In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To …
Variable importance is central to scientific studies, including the social sciences and causal inference, healthcare, and other domains. However, current notions of variable importance are often tied to a specific predictive model. This is problematic: what if there were multiple well-performing predictive models, and …
A neural network finds causal relationships among latent variables.
Derives derivatives and geometric framework for functions with non-independent variables.
A new distance for mixed-variable, hierarchical datasets with meta variables.
Unified Bayesian Optimisation for mixed variables improves performance.
In this paper, we propose an interpretable LSTM recurrent neural network, i.e., multi-variable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables. Currently, widely used attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To th…
Random Forest variable importance is improved by class balancing techniques.
Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined relevance has several drawbacks that prevent the selection of optimal input variables i…
Knoop enhances variable selection with over-parameterization and knockoffs.
A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. Detecting hidden variables poses two problems: determining the relations to other variables in the model and determining the number of states of …
New method for fitting graphical models with latent variables using regularized conditional likelihood.
CIB compresses variables causally, preserving key causal interactions.
We generalize to the finite-state case the notion of the extreme effect variable that accumulates all the effect of a variant variable observed in changes of another variable . We conduct theoretical analysis and turn the problem of finding of an effect variable into a problem of a simultaneous decomposition…
Discond-VAE separates continuous and discrete factors in data.
A new method selects important variables for clustering from dependency networks.
The paper introduces methods to identify key variables discriminating between two datasets.
Electronic Medical Records (EMR) are a rich source of patient information, including measurements reflecting physiologic signs and administered therapies. Identifying which variables are useful in predicting clinical outcomes can be challenging. Advanced algorithms such as deep neural networks were designed to process …
This work presents entropic constraints from DAGs with hidden variables.
For recurrent neural networks trained on time series with target and exogenous variables, in addition to accurate prediction, it is also desired to provide interpretable insights into the data. In this paper, we explore the structure of LSTM recurrent neural networks to learn variable-wise hidden states, with the aim t…
Proposes a two-stage method for selecting correlated predictors in high-dimensional data.
We propose a novel application of the Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (S-OMP) procedure for sparsistant variable selection in ultra-high dimensional multi-task regression problems. Screening of variables, as introduced in \cite{fan08sis}, is an efficient and highly scalable way to remove many irrelevant variab…