Study compares different integrals for optimal portfolio optimization with insider information.
problem Optimizing portfolios in a financial market with insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and various integrals (Russo-Vallois forward, Ayed-Kuo, Hitsuda-Skorokhod).
result The Hitsuda-Skorokhod and Ayed-Kuo integrals do not provide a financially meaningful investment strategy.
Study shows Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
problem Maximizing logarithmic utility for an insider with different anticipating techniques.
method Comparison of Russo-Vallois forward and Skorokhod integrals.
result Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
Derives functional Itô formula for non-anticipative maps of rough paths.
problem Functional Itô formula for non-anticipative maps of càdlàg rough paths.
method Approximation properties of the signature and Marcus transformation.
result Functional Taylor expansion for sufficiently regular non-anticipative maps.
New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.
problem Optimal portfolio optimization under default risk when traditional techniques are not applicable.
method Alternative approach using forward integration to avoid Jacod density hypothesis.
result Weaker intensity hypothesis is the appropriate condition for optimality in logarithmic utility.
Proposes using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for short-term human motion anticipation.
problem Lack of interpretability and explainability in neural network-based motion anticipation methods.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for motion representation and prediction.
result Anticipation errors comparable or better than recurrent neural networks for very short times.
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
problem The tension between no arbitrage, information efficiency, and risk anticipation in markets.
method Continuous time analysis with model- or event-risk, allowing pre-horizon risk-resolution and Risk-Neutral Equivalent pricing.
result Optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias.
We present two different approaches to stochastic integration in frictionless model free financial mathematics. The first one is in the spirit of Itô's integral and based on a certain topology which is induced by the outer measure corresponding to the minimal superhedging price. The second one is based on the controlle…
Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.
problem Optimizing portfolios for traders with delayed insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and white noise approach.
result Optimal portfolios maximize expected logarithmic utility under various financial models.
Revisits consumption-investment problem with anticipative noise.
problem Revisits classical consumption-investment problem with anticipative noise.
method Models risky-asset returns through a general α-integral, interpolating between Itô, Stratonovich, and related conventions.
result Derives closed-form optimal policies for logarithmic utility and constant volatilities in a market with n risky assets.
The paper explores anticipative binary information in financial markets using Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
problem Capturing anticipative information in financial markets with Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
method Using Malliavin calculus and filtration enlargement techniques, the paper computes the semimartingale decomposition of the processes.
result The paper provides the exact value of anticipative information in the pure jump case.
Novel framework synthesizes stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
problem Synthesizing forward-looking, time-evolving stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
method Anticipatory Neural Jump-Diffusion (ANJD) flow, AVNSG for dynamic spectral whitening.
result The framework effectively captures non-commutative moments and high-order stochastic texture.
Anticipatory portfolios use richer models to optimize investments.
problem Optimizing investments with richer models than used for calibration.
method Decision-theoretic definition of anticipation, quadratic geometry, and LQG decomposition.
result Correct anticipation creates value, vacuous anticipation has zero value, and misspecified anticipation is harmful.
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Futur…
Trading algorithms that execute large orders are susceptible to exploitation by order anticipation strategies. This paper studies the influence of order anticipation strategies in a multi-investor model of optimal execution under transient price impact. Existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium is established unde…
We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.
We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model extending the decomposition obtained by E. Alòs in [2] for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used are non anticipative. …
AntLer anticipates future learning to improve control performance.
problem Improving control performance through online learning is not well understood.
method AntLer uses a probabilistic model to anticipate future learning and optimize control parameters.
result AntLer approximates optimal solutions with high probability.
Corrects an earlier theorem, establishing new facts about information structures and non-anticipative aggregation.
problem The nature of information structures and their impact on non-anticipative aggregation.
method Local reduction of pricing to the natural price filtration, stability properties, and the establishment of new facts.
result Non-anticipative signals can reveal future information, requiring dependence among signals (masking relation) and not independence.
Model predicts COVID-19 growth in Senegal, highlighting health care capacity importance.
problem Impact of health care capacity on COVID-19 growth in Senegal.
method Compartmental model with logistic growth health care capacity, machine learning projection.
result Condition to avoid overwhelming health care system provided.
For assistive robots and virtual agents to achieve ubiquity, machines will need to anticipate the needs of their human counterparts. The field of Learning from Demonstration (LfD) has sought to enable machines to infer predictive models of human behavior for autonomous robot control. However, humans exhibit heterogenei…
Honest traders can outperform insiders in a Black-Scholes market with positive probability.
problem Comparing the performance of honest and insider traders in a financial market.
method Using anticipating stochastic calculus and forward integral analysis of the Doléans-Dade exponential process.
result The honest trader can achieve higher logarithmic utility and wealth than the insider with positive probability.
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Most sales applications are characterized by competition and limited demand information. For successful pricing strategies, frequent price adjustments as well as anticipation of market dynamics are crucial. Both effects are challenging as competitive markets are complex and computations of optimized pricing adjustments…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNS) are now widely used on sequence generation tasks due to their ability to learn long-range dependencies and to generate sequences of arbitrary length. However, their left-to-right generation procedure only allows a limited control from a potential user which makes them unsuitable for int…
The Black-Scholes model anticipates rather well the observed prices for options in the case of a strike price that is not too far from the current price of the underlying asset. Some useful extensions can be obtained by an adequate modification of the coefficients in the Black-Scholes equation. We investigate from a ma…
Automated vehicles learn to predict upcoming maneuvers with high accuracy.
problem Making self-driving cars feel safer by anticipating future actions.
method Machine learning techniques applied to a large dataset of real-world driving.
result Automated vehicles can predict maneuvers up to 5 seconds in advance with high accuracy.
Universal approximation for stochastic processes using Brownian motion.
problem Approximating stochastic processes with linear functionals.
method Establishing Lp-type universal approximation theorems for rough path spaces. result Linear functionals on the signature of time-extended Brownian motion can approximate any p-integrable stochastic process. Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for 1,681 cryptocurrencies for the period between N…
Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that are not co-possible, is proven to be highly non-linear and sensitively dependen…
PredictaBoard benchmarks LLM score predictors to assess their ability to anticipate errors.
problem Inconsistent performance of LLMs in common sense reasoning tasks.
method Collaborative benchmarking framework evaluating pairs of LLMs and assessors using rejection rate at different tolerance errors.
result Highlights the need to evaluate predictability alongside performance for safer AI systems.
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
problem Analyzing financial value of weak information in discrete vs continuous markets.
method Defined minimal probability measure and financial value of weak information, then showed convergence.
result Financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
In this paper, we study a class of Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (ABSDE) with jumps. The solution of the ABSDE is a triple (Y,Z,ψ) where Y is a semimartingale, and (Z,ψ) are the diffusion and jump coefficients. We allow the driver of the ABSDE to have linear growth on the uniform norm of …
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.
The paper extends Huber's theorem to higher dimensions with specific geometric constraints.
problem Applying Huber's theorem to higher-dimensional conformal metrics with bounded scalar curvature.
method Analyzing conformal metrics on a punctured ball with L2n bounded scalar curvature. result The volume density at infinity is precisely one, and the blow-down metric is Rn. By employing the technique of enlargement of filtrations, we demonstrate how to incorporate information about the future trend of the stochastic interest rate process into a financial model. By modeling the interest rate as an affine diffusion process, we obtain explicit formulas for the additional expected logarithmic…
Metric learning enhances combinatorial coverage metrics' ability to predict classification errors.
problem Dataset dependence of combinatorial coverage metrics in anticipating classification errors.
method Metric learning to improve latent space separation of data classes.
result Metric learning increases SDCCMs' ability to distinguish between correctly and incorrectly classified data.
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite activity. The default events are modelled via a counting process in line with large p…
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n. Specifically, we propose a new test statistic for the two-sample test of means that integrates a rand…
We develop a Markovian approximation for SVV models to compute hedging strategies.
problem Computing optimal hedging strategies for SVV models with non-Markovian noise.
method Develop a Markovian approximation of the Volterra noise kernel to compute hedging strategies.
result Error estimates for the approximation of volatility, prices, and optimal hedge.
Model financial dynamics using 2-manifold geometries, revealing the torus as best for cyclical data.
problem Financial forecasting using complex market data.
method Embedding market data onto 2-manifolds (S2, R2, H2, T) guided by uniformization theorem, inferring latent curvature.
result The torus geometry best predicts cyclical financial data, aligning with IS-LM theory.
Study uses FinBERT for financial sentiment analysis to predict stock movement.
problem Predicting stock movement with greater accuracy.
method Integrates sentiment analysis with FinBERT and LSTM networks.
result FinBERT enhances model's ability to predict market fluctuations.
Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.
problem Forecasting central bank policy decisions, especially the Fed's rate changes.
method Multi-modal approach combining structured data and unstructured text from Fed communications.
result Hybrid models outperform unimodal baselines, achieving a test AUC of 0.83.
FNSPID dataset integrates financial news and stock prices for improved market predictions.
problem Lack of comprehensive datasets combining quantitative and qualitative financial data.
method Developed a large-scale dataset (FNSPID) with 29.7M stock prices and 15.7M financial news records.
result FNSPID significantly boosts market prediction accuracy and sentiment analysis.
Automatic speech recognition can potentially benefit from the lip motion patterns, complementing acoustic speech to improve the overall recognition performance, particularly in noise. In this paper we propose an audio-visual fusion strategy that goes beyond simple feature concatenation and learns to automatically align…
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of discipli…
The paper introduces a knowledge score for GPR predictions to assess their reliability.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic predictions from Gaussian process regression models.
method A knowledge score quantifying the reduction of uncertainty in GPR predictions.
result The knowledge score improves prediction accuracy in various tasks.
New MKABSDEs help calculate initial margins in financial contracts.
problem Calculating initial margins in financial contracts with dependencies.
method Introduced MKABSDEs, provided existence and uniqueness, applied to CVaR, used deterministic and Monte-Carlo methods for numerical approximations.
result MKABSDEs provide a new way to solve for initial margins in financial contracts.
Machine learning predicts criminal networks' missing partnerships and future behavior.
problem Predicting and understanding criminal networks' properties and future behavior.
method Combining graph representation learning and machine learning methods.
result Outstanding accuracy in predicting missing criminal partnerships and future behavior.