A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study compares different integrals for optimal portfolio optimization with insider information.
Study shows Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
Derives functional Itô formula for non-anticipative maps of rough paths.
New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
Various neural network based methods are capable of anticipating human body motions from data for a short period of time. What these methods lack are the interpretability and explainability of the network and its results. We propose to use Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays to represent and anticipate human body mo…
We present two different approaches to stochastic integration in frictionless model free financial mathematics. The first one is in the spirit of Itô's integral and based on a certain topology which is induced by the outer measure corresponding to the minimal superhedging price. The second one is based on the controlle…
Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.
Revisits consumption-investment problem with anticipative noise.
The paper explores anticipative binary information in financial markets using Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
Novel framework synthesizes stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
Anticipatory portfolios use richer models to optimize investments.
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Futur…
Trading algorithms that execute large orders are susceptible to exploitation by order anticipation strategies. This paper studies the influence of order anticipation strategies in a multi-investor model of optimal execution under transient price impact. Existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium is established unde…
We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.
We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model extending the decomposition obtained by E. Alòs in [2] for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used are non anticipative. …
AntLer anticipates future learning to improve control performance.
Corrects an earlier theorem, establishing new facts about information structures and non-anticipative aggregation.
Model predicts COVID-19 growth in Senegal, highlighting health care capacity importance.
For assistive robots and virtual agents to achieve ubiquity, machines will need to anticipate the needs of their human counterparts. The field of Learning from Demonstration (LfD) has sought to enable machines to infer predictive models of human behavior for autonomous robot control. However, humans exhibit heterogenei…
Honest traders can outperform insiders in a Black-Scholes market with positive probability.
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
Most sales applications are characterized by competition and limited demand information. For successful pricing strategies, frequent price adjustments as well as anticipation of market dynamics are crucial. Both effects are challenging as competitive markets are complex and computations of optimized pricing adjustments…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNS) are now widely used on sequence generation tasks due to their ability to learn long-range dependencies and to generate sequences of arbitrary length. However, their left-to-right generation procedure only allows a limited control from a potential user which makes them unsuitable for int…
The Black-Scholes model anticipates rather well the observed prices for options in the case of a strike price that is not too far from the current price of the underlying asset. Some useful extensions can be obtained by an adequate modification of the coefficients in the Black-Scholes equation. We investigate from a ma…
Universal approximation for stochastic processes using Brownian motion.
Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for cryptocurrencies for the period between N…
Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that are not co-possible, is proven to be highly non-linear and sensitively dependen…
PredictaBoard benchmarks LLM score predictors to assess their ability to anticipate errors.
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
In this paper, we study a class of Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (ABSDE) with jumps. The solution of the ABSDE is a triple where is a semimartingale, and are the diffusion and jump coefficients. We allow the driver of the ABSDE to have linear growth on the uniform norm of …
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
By observing their environment as well as other traffic participants, humans are enabled to drive road vehicles safely. Vehicle passengers, however, perceive a notable difference between non-experienced and experienced drivers. In particular, they may get the impression that the latter ones anticipate what will happen …
The paper extends Huber's theorem to higher dimensions with specific geometric constraints.
By employing the technique of enlargement of filtrations, we demonstrate how to incorporate information about the future trend of the stochastic interest rate process into a financial model. By modeling the interest rate as an affine diffusion process, we obtain explicit formulas for the additional expected logarithmic…
Metric learning enhances combinatorial coverage metrics' ability to predict classification errors.
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite activity. The default events are modelled via a counting process in line with large p…
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n. Specifically, we propose a new test statistic for the two-sample test of means that integrates a rand…
We develop a Markovian approximation for SVV models to compute hedging strategies.
Model financial dynamics using 2-manifold geometries, revealing the torus as best for cyclical data.
Study uses FinBERT for financial sentiment analysis to predict stock movement.
Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.
FNSPID dataset integrates financial news and stock prices for improved market predictions.
Automatic speech recognition can potentially benefit from the lip motion patterns, complementing acoustic speech to improve the overall recognition performance, particularly in noise. In this paper we propose an audio-visual fusion strategy that goes beyond simple feature concatenation and learns to automatically align…
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of discipli…
The paper introduces a knowledge score for GPR predictions to assess their reliability.
New MKABSDEs help calculate initial margins in financial contracts.
Machine learning predicts criminal networks' missing partnerships and future behavior.