The paper explores anticipative binary information in financial markets using Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
problem Capturing anticipative information in financial markets with Brownian motion and Poisson processes.
method Using Malliavin calculus and filtration enlargement techniques, the paper computes the semimartingale decomposition of the processes.
result The paper provides the exact value of anticipative information in the pure jump case.
Study shows Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
problem Maximizing logarithmic utility for an insider with different anticipating techniques.
method Comparison of Russo-Vallois forward and Skorokhod integrals.
result Skorokhod insider outperforms forward insider in logarithmic utility maximization.
Study compares different integrals for optimal portfolio optimization with insider information.
problem Optimizing portfolios in a financial market with insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and various integrals (Russo-Vallois forward, Ayed-Kuo, Hitsuda-Skorokhod).
result The Hitsuda-Skorokhod and Ayed-Kuo integrals do not provide a financially meaningful investment strategy.
New approach avoids restrictive assumptions for optimal portfolio in default risk scenarios.
problem Optimal portfolio optimization under default risk when traditional techniques are not applicable.
method Alternative approach using forward integration to avoid Jacod density hypothesis.
result Weaker intensity hypothesis is the appropriate condition for optimality in logarithmic utility.
Derives functional Itô formula for non-anticipative maps of rough paths.
problem Functional Itô formula for non-anticipative maps of càdlàg rough paths.
method Approximation properties of the signature and Marcus transformation.
result Functional Taylor expansion for sufficiently regular non-anticipative maps.
We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model extending the decomposition obtained by E. Alòs in [2] for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used are non anticipative. …
Study optimal portfolios for traders with asymmetric information and delay.
problem Optimizing portfolios for traders with delayed insider information.
method Anticipating stochastic calculus and white noise approach.
result Optimal portfolios maximize expected logarithmic utility under various financial models.
Study on implied volatility of Asian options with stochastic volatility.
problem Understanding the implied volatility of Asian options under stochastic volatility models.
method Using Malliavin calculus and anticipating Ito's formula, the paper computes and finds asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility and skew.
result Developed short-maturity asymptotic formulas for the skew of the implied volatility, which depends on the roughness of the volatility model.
The paper analyzes implied volatility for European and Asian options under stochastic volatility Bachelier model.
problem Analyzing implied volatility for European and Asian options under stochastic volatility.
method Using Malliavin calculus and anticipating Ito's formula, the paper computes and finds asymptotic formulas for implied volatility and skew.
result The paper provides a short maturity asymptotic formula for the skew of implied volatility that depends on the roughness of the volatility model.
Study on implied volatility of Inverse options under stochastic volatility models.
problem Short-time behavior and skew of implied volatility for Inverse European options.
method Malliavin calculus, anticipating Itô's formula, asymptotic analysis.
result Asymptotic formula for skew of implied volatility, extending to Quanto-Inverse options.
Proposes using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for short-term human motion anticipation.
problem Lack of interpretability and explainability in neural network-based motion anticipation methods.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition with delays for motion representation and prediction.
result Anticipation errors comparable or better than recurrent neural networks for very short times.
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
problem The tension between no arbitrage, information efficiency, and risk anticipation in markets.
method Continuous time analysis with model- or event-risk, allowing pre-horizon risk-resolution and Risk-Neutral Equivalent pricing.
result Optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias.
Investigates invariant hulls of functionals on manifolds.
problem Understanding meaningful functionals on manifolds through reparameterizations.
method Uses inner-variations to transform arbitrary functionals into invariant realizations.
result Explicit computations for volume functional in N-dimensional manifolds, especially in N=2. Honest traders can outperform insiders in a Black-Scholes market with positive probability.
problem Comparing the performance of honest and insider traders in a financial market.
method Using anticipating stochastic calculus and forward integral analysis of the Doléans-Dade exponential process.
result The honest trader can achieve higher logarithmic utility and wealth than the insider with positive probability.
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite activity. The default events are modelled via a counting process in line with large p…
Proves existence and trapped surface formation for Einstein-Vlasov system without symmetry assumptions.
problem Formation of trapped surfaces in Einstein-Vlasov system without symmetry.
method Calibrated hierarchy of estimates, refined renormalization, strategic restriction of elliptic estimates, precise commutator calculus.
result First large-data, symmetry-free construction of dynamical black hole formation.
Anticipatory portfolios use richer models to optimize investments.
problem Optimizing investments with richer models than used for calibration.
method Decision-theoretic definition of anticipation, quadratic geometry, and LQG decomposition.
result Correct anticipation creates value, vacuous anticipation has zero value, and misspecified anticipation is harmful.
Trading algorithms that execute large orders are susceptible to exploitation by order anticipation strategies. This paper studies the influence of order anticipation strategies in a multi-investor model of optimal execution under transient price impact. Existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium is established unde…
This paper develops a mathematical framework for the analysis of continuous-time trading strategies which, in contrast to the classical setting of continuous-time mathematical finance, does not rely on stochastic integrals or other probabilistic notions. Our purely analytic framework allows for the derivation of a path…
We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.
AntLer anticipates future learning to improve control performance.
problem Improving control performance through online learning is not well understood.
method AntLer uses a probabilistic model to anticipate future learning and optimize control parameters.
result AntLer approximates optimal solutions with high probability.
Corrects an earlier theorem, establishing new facts about information structures and non-anticipative aggregation.
problem The nature of information structures and their impact on non-anticipative aggregation.
method Local reduction of pricing to the natural price filtration, stability properties, and the establishment of new facts.
result Non-anticipative signals can reveal future information, requiring dependence among signals (masking relation) and not independence.
Model predicts COVID-19 growth in Senegal, highlighting health care capacity importance.
problem Impact of health care capacity on COVID-19 growth in Senegal.
method Compartmental model with logistic growth health care capacity, machine learning projection.
result Condition to avoid overwhelming health care system provided.
Study embedding calculus and link invariants using functor calculus.
problem Detect Milnor invariants using embedding towers of string links.
method Use functor calculus and Goodwillie-Weiss embedding calculus.
result Embedding tower detects Milnor invariants.
Most sales applications are characterized by competition and limited demand information. For successful pricing strategies, frequent price adjustments as well as anticipation of market dynamics are crucial. Both effects are challenging as competitive markets are complex and computations of optimized pricing adjustments…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNS) are now widely used on sequence generation tasks due to their ability to learn long-range dependencies and to generate sequences of arbitrary length. However, their left-to-right generation procedure only allows a limited control from a potential user which makes them unsuitable for int…
Embedding calculus proves convergence for surfaces.
problem Proving convergence of embedding calculus for surfaces.
method Goodwillie-Weiss' embedding calculus for spaces of embeddings into a manifold of dimension at most two.
result Relates Johnson filtration of mapping class group to embedding calculus.
Study geometric characterization of asymptotic pseudodifferential calculus on spinor bundles.
problem Geometric characterization of asymptotic pseudodifferential calculus on spinor bundles.
method Groupoid approach to pseudodifferential calculus, rescaled bundle.
result Rescaled bundle provides geometric characterization to asymptotic pseudodifferential calculus on spinor bundles.
We explain that general differential calculus and Lie theory have a common foundation: Lie Calculus is differential calculus, seen from the point of view of Lie theory, by making use of the groupoid concept as link between them. Higher order theory naturally involves higher algebra (n-fold groupoids).(conceptual, topol…
Secondary Calculus formalizes PDEs using cohomology, simplifying their study.
problem Formalizing and simplifying the study of partial differential equations (PDEs).
method Using cohomology of diffieties to formalize PDEs and their properties.
result Differential calculus on PDE solution spaces is homotopy calculus on horizontal De Rham algebras of diffieties.
In arXiv:1207.0332 [cs.LO] was proposed a graphic lambda calculus formalism, which has sectors corresponding to untyped lambda calculus and emergent algebras. Here we explore the sector covering knot diagrams, which are constructed as macros over the graphic lambda calculus.
Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal profits. We analyse daily data for 1,681 cryptocurrencies for the period between N…
Extends differential calculus to triole algebras.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on extending differential calculus.
method Generalizes diolic differential calculus to triole algebras with fiber metrics.
result Established a conceptual framework for calculus on bundles with vector-valued fiber metrics.
Unified Lie structures in homotopy and isotopy calculus.
problem Compatibility of Lie structures in homotopy and isotopy calculus.
method New technical tool: bracket on total homotopy fibres of collapsing cubes of wedge sums.
result Unified understanding of Lie structures in homotopy and isotopy calculus.
A diagrammatic language for 3D manifolds with boundary.
problem Representing and manipulating 3D manifolds with boundary.
method Diagrammatic calculus and local moves.
result Completeness of the diagrammatic calculus proved.
Introduces tractors for basic examples and modern differential calculus.
problem None explicitly stated, focuses on introduction.
method Classical examples and modern invariant differential calculus.
result Introduction to tractors and related modern differential calculus.
Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that are not co-possible, is proven to be highly non-linear and sensitively dependen…
We examine the N-Koszul calculus for the N-symmetric algebras. The case N=2 corresponds to the Elie Cartan calculus. We conjecture that, as in the case N=2, the N-Cartan calculus extends to manifolds when N>2, which would provide a new type of noncommutative differential geometry.
This paper is concerned with pseudodifferential calculus on manifolds with fibred corners. Following work of Connes, Monthubert, Skandalis and Androulidakis, we associate to every manifold with fibred corners a longitudinally smooth groupoid which algebraic and differential structure is explicitely described. This grou…
This memoir deals with the hypoelliptic calculus on Heisenberg manifolds, or Heisenberg calculus. The Heisenberg manifolds generalize CR and contact manifolds and in this context the main differential operators at stake include the Hörmander's sum of squares, the Kohn Laplacian, the horizontal sublaplacian and its conf…
Simplified calculus for semimartingales makes complex transformations easier.
problem Complex transformations of semimartingales.
method Unified treatment of transformations for real and complex semimartingales.
result Unified calculus for semimartingales simplifies various transformations.
Euler calculus is based on integrating simple functions with respect to the Euler characteristic. This paper makes the case for extending Euler calculus to continuous integrands by integrating with respect to (Gaussian) curvature. This requires a metric but is nevertheless defined within any O-minimal theory. It satisf…
This is a short description of graphic lambda calculus, with special emphasis on a duality suggested by the two different appearances of knot diagrams, in lambda calculus and emergent algebra sectors of the graphic lambda calculus respectively. This duality leads to the introduction of the dual of the graphic beta move…
Develops symmetric Cartan calculus linking to Patterson-Walker metric.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on developing a new calculus.
method Symmetric Cartan calculus, using torsion-free affine connections.
result Symmetric Cartan calculus is a complete analogue of classical Cartan calculus.
New calculus solves boundary value problems for elliptic operators.
problem Boundary value problems for 0-elliptic operators.
method Developed a new calculus called symbolic 0-calculus to handle boundary value problems.
result Construct left and right parametrices for 0-elliptic operators with boundary conditions.
New algebraic formalism for differential calculus in Diolic algebras.
problem Studying differential calculus in vector bundles.
method Introducing functors of differential calculus over arbitrary graded commutative algebras (DCGCA) and applying this to Diolic algebras.
result Recovery of well-known objects and notions from ordinary differential, symplectic, and Poisson geometry, with unique aspects.
New integration theory on topological spaces, including fractals.
problem Developing a universal integration theory for arbitrary topological spaces.
method Introducing a new integration framework using unital magma valued functions and measures.
result Integration, differentiation, and orientation defined for arbitrary topological spaces.
Following the programme set out in Part I of this work, we develop a conceptual higher order differential calculus. The '' local linear algebra '' defined in Part I is generalized by '' higher order local linear algebra ''. The underlying combinatorial object of such higher algebra is the natural n-dimensional hyper-cu…