A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In many contexts, it can be useful for domain experts to understand to what extent predictions made by a machine learning model can be trusted. In particular, estimates of trustworthiness can be useful for fraud analysts who process machine learning-generated alerts of fraudulent transactions. In this work, we present …
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is fou…
Analysts use vague language in reports to convey useful information about future payoffs.
problem Lack of precise numerical forecasts in analyst reports.
method Empirical analysis of analyst reports to assess the predictive power of linguistic tone.
result The textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions, especially when language is vague and uncertainty is high.
Adaptive data analysis is frequently criticized for its pessimistic generalization guarantees. The source of these pessimistic bounds is a model that permits arbitrary, possibly adversarial analysts that optimally use information to bias results. While being a central issue in the field, still lacking are notions of na…
An analytic process is iterative between two agents, an analyst and an analytic toolbox. Each iteration comprises three main steps: preparing a dataset, running an analytic tool, and evaluating the result, where dataset preparation and result evaluation, conducted by the analyst, are largely domain-knowledge driven. In…
This study uses NLP to predict stock performance based on analyst reports.
problem Predicting stock performance using textual information from analyst reports.
method Natural language processing (NLP) and a customized BERT deep learning model for Chinese text.
result Strong positive sentiment in analyst reports increases excess return and intraday volatility, while strong negative sentiment increases volatility and trading volume but decreases excess return.
In many applications, an anomaly detection system presents the most anomalous data instance to a human analyst, who then must determine whether the instance is truly of interest (e.g. a threat in a security setting). Unfortunately, most anomaly detectors provide no explanation about why an instance was considered anoma…
We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density functi…
Requirements elicitation requires extensive knowledge and deep understanding of the problem domain where the final system will be situated. However, in many software development projects, analysts are required to elicit the requirements from an unfamiliar domain, which often causes communication barriers between analys…
Analysis of an organization's computer network activity is a key component of early detection and mitigation of insider threat, a growing concern for many organizations. Raw system logs are a prototypical example of streaming data that can quickly scale beyond the cognitive power of a human analyst. As a prospective fi…
Anomaly detectors are often used to produce a ranked list of statistical anomalies, which are examined by human analysts in order to extract the actual anomalies of interest. Unfortunately, in realworld applications, this process can be exceedingly difficult for the analyst since a large fraction of high-ranking anomal…
Deep learning has recently demonstrated state-of-the art performance on key tasks related to the maintenance of computer systems, such as intrusion detection, denial of service attack detection, hardware and software system failures, and malware detection. In these contexts, model interpretability is vital for administ…
Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets trust, panic also begets…
PRCD-MAP learns to trust imperfect priors in causal discovery, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Tackles the brittle trade-off between blind trust and rejection of external priors in causal discovery.
method Proposes PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to imperfect priors and modulates regularization in a MAP objective.
result Enjoys a population-level safety guarantee and outperforms existing methods on real-world causal discovery tasks.
The efficient market hypothesis has been considered one of the most controversial arguments in finance, with the academia divided between who claims the impossibility of beating the market and who believes that it is possible to gain over the average profits. If the hypothesis holds, it means, as suggested by Burton Ma…
Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance, understanding when a classifier's predictions should and should not be trusted has received …
A good clustering can help a data analyst to explore and understand a data set, but what constitutes a good clustering may depend on domain-specific and application-specific criteria. These criteria can be difficult to formalize, even when it is easy for an analyst to know a good clustering when they see one. We presen…
Requirements elicitation can be very challenging in projects that require deep domain knowledge about the system at hand. As analysts have the full control over the elicitation process, their lack of knowledge about the system under study inhibits them from asking related questions and reduces the accuracy of requireme…