New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
Paper improves VaR risk allocation by avoiding zero probability events.
problem Computing VaR contributions for zero probability events.
method Reformulates Euler contributions to a ratio of conditional expectations with strictly positive probability events.
result Proposed estimator outperforms standard Monte Carlo methods in bias and variance.
The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.
problem Optimizing policy success probability in online advertising systems.
method SuccessProbaMax algorithm that optimizes for the probability of success rather than expected value.
result SuccessProbaMax outperforms conventional algorithms in terms of success rate.
SEEDA optimizes dose allocation in clinical trials to balance efficacy and safety.
problem Complex relationships between efficacy and toxicity in new drug trials.
method Adaptive clinical trial methodology that maximizes cumulative efficacy while ensuring safety constraints.
result SEEDA outperforms existing methods in finding optimal doses with higher success rates and fewer patients.
Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.
problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.
We study a sequential resource allocation problem between a fixed number of arms. On each iteration the algorithm distributes a resource among the arms in order to maximize the expected success rate. Allocating more of the resource to a given arm increases the probability that it succeeds, yet with a cut-off. We follow…
Paper uses a new copula to model risk aggregation and capital allocation.
problem Modeling dependence between risks for risk aggregation and capital allocation.
method Uses a generalized Archimedean copula (mixed Bernstein copula) to define dependence structure and derives closed-form risk measures.
result Closed-form expressions for tail value-at-risk and allocations are derived.
Adaptive RL optimizes testing resource allocation for dynamic software environments.
problem Optimizing resource allocation for evolving software testing environments.
method Integrates Q-learning with hybrid reward design for sequential decision-making.
result Consistently outperforms static and optimization-based baselines in simulation studies.
Paper introduces a new method for allocating capital based on risk measures from ruin theory.
problem Allocating capital to manage risk measures derived from ruin theory.
method Introduces a novel allocation method for dynamic value-at-risk (VaR) measures.
result Demonstrates desirable properties and compares with existing methods.
A new test improves statistical inference in bandit algorithms without sacrificing adaptiveness.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for adaptive randomised experiments in bandits.
method An allocation probability test for Thompson Sampling without trading-off regret or requiring large sample sizes.
result Improves statistical inference in small samples, showing advantages in mental health experiments.
In this letter, an age of information (AoI)-aware transmission power and resource block (RB) allocation technique for vehicular communication networks is proposed. Due to the highly dynamic nature of vehicular networks, gaining a prior knowledge about the network dynamics, i.e., wireless channels and interference, in o…
Optimizes portfolios with utility theory, diversification, and leverage.
problem Finding optimal portfolio allocation strategies.
method Utility theory, exponential and logarithmic utilities, compound probability distributions, maximum expected utility, generalized mean-variance.
result Enhanced portfolio allocation strategies with natural explanations.
The aim of this paper is to compare two asset allocation methods for a pension scheme during the decumulation phase in the simplified portfolio selection between a risky asset following a geometric Brownian motion and a riskless asset. The two asset allocation criteria are the ruin probability of the insurance company …
Framework uses hindsight regret to audit marketing budget allocations.
problem Lack of principled way to assess strategic budget allocations.
method Hindsight regret framework based on constraint-faithful benchmark.
result Identifies practical trade-off between allocation flexibility and detectability.
We characterize the class of exchangeable feature allocations assigning probability Vn,k∏l=1kWmlUn−ml to a feature allocation of n individuals, displaying k features with counts (m1,…,mk) for these features. Each element of this class is parametrized by a countable matrix V…
In emissions trading, the initial allocation of permits is an intractable issue because it needs to be essentially fair to the participating countries. There are many ways to distribute a given total amount of emissions permits among countries, but the existing distribution methods, such as auctioning and grandfatherin…
This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Using a multivariate normal Copula function for the joint default probabilities we show that retaining the first few moments of the portfolio default l…
Proposes a method to allocate time budgets in mixed criticality systems.
problem Managing execution time variability in mixed criticality systems.
method Quantifies execution time variability using statistical dispersion parameters and proposes a heuristic to allocate time budgets.
result The proposed heuristic reduces the probability of exceeding allocated budgets.
New algorithm tackles resource allocation in multi-armed bandits to balance speed and throughput.
problem Balancing speed and throughput in stochastic multi-armed bandits with limited resources.
method Proposes an algorithm that trades off between information accumulation and throughput.
result Upper bounds the time taken to find the best arm with a given target success probability.
The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.
problem Understanding how probability weighting affects economic behavior and risk aversion.
method Examining a von Neumann-Morgenstern economy with an RDU agent to model probability weighting effects.
result Probability weighting can lead to endogenous betting in an economy with common beliefs.
Allocation strategies improve the efficiency of crowdsourcing by decreasing the work needed to complete individual tasks accurately. However, these algorithms introduce bias by preferentially allocating workers onto easy tasks, leading to sets of completed tasks that are no longer representative of all tasks. This bias…
Machine learning improves portfolio allocation between index and risk-free assets.
problem Finding optimal portfolio rules for time-varying returns and volatility.
method Two Random Forest models: one for sign probabilities of excess return, the other for optimized volatility.
result Substantial improvements in utility, risk-adjusted returns, and maximum drawdowns over buy-and-hold.
The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.
problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.
This paper analyzes OCBA algorithms' convergence rates for DEDS optimization.
problem Optimizing discrete-event dynamic systems with limited computing resources.
method Characterizes convergence rates of two OCBA algorithms under different performance measures.
result OCBA algorithms achieve optimal convergence rates under probability of correct selection and expected opportunity cost measures.
Optimal asset allocation strategy outperforms stochastic benchmark.
problem Achieving higher terminal wealth than a stochastic benchmark.
method Data-driven Neural Network optimization framework for dynamic asset allocation.
result Optimal adaptive strategy outperforms benchmark with higher median and right-skewed terminal wealth.
Optimal adaptive experiment for choosing best treatment with binary outcomes.
problem Choosing the best treatment from binary options in an adaptive experiment.
method Adaptive experiment with two phases: treatment allocation and choice. Neyman allocation method used.
result Neyman allocation is minimax and Bayes optimal, matching lower bounds for regret.
Study explores strategies for randomized allocation in delayed rewards bandits.
problem Understanding the exploration-exploitation tradeoff in randomized strategies with delayed rewards.
method Examines two strategies: updating exploration sequence at every time point vs. updating only when a new reward is observed.
result The strategy updating only when a new reward is observed leads to strong consistency in allocation for a wider scope of situations.
Improves content allocation in educational platforms with sparse data.
problem Imbalanced content allocation and delayed convergence in adaptive strategies.
method Introduces WAPTS, an algorithm that refines Thompson Sampling for data-sparse environments.
result Demonstrates earlier and more reliable identification of promising treatments.
New algorithms improve best-arm identification with varying rewards.
problem Identifying the best arm with varying reward variances in fixed budget.
method Proposed two algorithms: SHVar for known variances, SHAdaVar for unknown variances; uses non-uniform budget allocation.
result Bounding misidentification probabilities for both algorithms.
We provide a new characterization of mean-variance hedging strategies in a general semimartingale market. The key point is the introduction of a new probability measure P⋆ which turns the dynamic asset allocation problem into a myopic one. The minimal martingale measure relative to P⋆ coincides with t…
clusterBMA combines clustering results from multiple models using Bayesian model averaging.
problem Uncertainty in model selection for clustering.
method Bayesian model averaging to combine results from multiple clustering algorithms.
result ClusterBMA offers probabilistic cluster allocations and quantifies model-based uncertainty.
New measure quantifies financial erratic behavior.
problem Measuring similarity between erratic financial time series.
method Combining probability distributions and Bayesian change point detection.
result Greater similarity among sectors than countries in erratic behavior.
We consider the problem of allocating samples to a finite set of discrete distributions in order to learn them uniformly well in terms of four common distance measures: ℓ22, ℓ1, f-divergence, and separation distance. To present a unified treatment of these distances, we first propose a general optimistic…
Reinforcement learning for continuous-time risk-sensitive asset allocation
problem Continuous-time risk-sensitive asset allocation
method Free energy-entropy duality reformulation and q-learning actor-critic method result Optimal policy learning with high accuracy
The purpose of this paper is to provide further understanding into the structure of the sequential allocation ("stochastic multi-armed bandit", or MAB) problem by establishing probability one finite horizon bounds and convergence rates for the sample (or "pseudo") regret associated with two simple classes of allocation…
Bayesian inference for topics in documents with many potential causes.
problem Estimating topic distributions in documents with many potential causes and few observations.
method Exact Bayesian inference using a linear-time algorithm with a simple formula.
result Exact Bayesian inference can be computed in linear time for a given upper bound on observations.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
We implement a systematic asset allocation model using the Historical Simulation with Flexible Probabilities (HS-FP) framework developed by Meucci. The HS-FP framework is a flexible non-parametric estimation approach that considers future asset class behavior to be conditional on time and market environments, and deriv…
Optimizes budgeted evaluations of LLMs by allocating queries to judges efficiently.
problem Evaluating LLMs with heterogeneous judges and varying costs and reliability.
method Formalizes and analyzes budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation, proposing EST-IVWE for practical implementation.
result EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget and is instance-optimal.
GNA optimally identifies the best arm with small gaps.
problem Best arm identification in fixed-budget settings.
method Generalized Neyman Allocation (GNA) for asymptotically locally minimax optimal BAI.
result GNA's worst-case bounds match the lower and upper bounds in the small-gap regime.
Algorithm ensures privacy while strictly adhering to constraints.
problem Differential privacy with linear constraints that must be strictly followed.
method Developed an algorithm that releases a nearly-optimal solution satisfying constraints with probability 1.
result Achieved nearly optimal performance while preserving privacy and strictly adhering to constraints.
Paper calculates the exact error of LDA models.
problem Bayesian generalization error in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA).
method Theoretical analysis of learning coefficient using algebraic geometry.
result Exact asymptotic form of LDA's generalization error.
The paper proposes a new policy for optimal treatment allocation based on quantile treatment effects.
problem Optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare, especially when individuals are heterogeneous.
method The approach involves allocating treatments based on the conditional quantile of individual treatment effects (QoTE), considering both prudent and negligent policymakers.
result The proposed minimax policies are robust to model uncertainty and can be generalized to various settings.
The emph{securities market} is the fundamental theoretical framework in economics and finance for resource allocation under uncertainty. Securities serve both to reallocate risk and to disseminate probabilistic information. emph{Complete} securities markets - which contain one security for every possible state of natur…
New OCBA procedures minimize PICS in robust R&S.
problem Selecting the best alternative under input uncertainty.
method Developed new asymptotically optimal OCBA procedures.
result Procedures minimize probability of incorrect selection.
Algorithm allocates budgets to tasks with semi-bandit feedback, achieving near-optimal regret bounds.
problem Stochastic budget allocation with censored semi-bandit feedback.
method Optimism-based algorithm operating under censored semi-bandit feedback.
result Regret scales polylogarithmically with horizon T in diminishing-returns regimes.
New algorithm solves online resource allocation problems efficiently.
problem Dynamic resource allocation in operations research.
method Minimal Selection Principle and MSoE algorithm.
result Ensures optimal cumulative regret bounds in dynamic resource allocation.
Integrates side information for robust portfolio optimization.
problem Portfolio optimization under uncertainty and side information.
method Distributionally robust optimization with optimal transport ambiguity set.
result The problem can be reformulated as a finite-dimensional optimization problem.