Framework for sorting with diverse value models and valued assignment examples.
problem Sorting with diverse value models and valued assignment examples.
method Optimization model for constructing preference model from valued examples, regularization techniques, and efficient algorithm.
result Improved predictive ability and flexibility in classification performance.
We propose a simple yet powerful framework for modeling integer-valued data, such as counts, scores, and rounded data. The data-generating process is defined by Simultaneously Transforming and Rounding (STAR) a continuous-valued process, which produces a flexible family of integer-valued distributions capable of modeli…
The paper introduces Absolute Shapley Value to handle negative contributions in machine learning model training.
problem Negative marginal contributions in machine learning model training.
method Investigates three philosophies: Original Shapley Value, Zero Shapley Value, and Absolute Shapley Value.
result Absolute Shapley Value significantly outperforms other definitions in evaluating data importance.
Methodology to measure lag relevance in time series models.
problem Measuring lag relevance in machine learning models for univariate time series.
method Ghost variables, Shapley values, additive importance measures, auto-relevance and partial auto-relevance functions, one-step forecast.
result Calculated relevance measures successfully demonstrate expected lag structure in almost all cases.
SHAP explains boosted trees with additively modeled features.
problem Explaining predictions of boosted trees models with additively modeled features.
method SHAP values for additively modeled features in boosted trees models.
result SHAP dependence plot matches partial dependence plot for additively modeled features.
Instantly interprets black-box models using additive models.
problem Efficiency and representation power of SHAP explanations.
method Variational perspective linking GAM models and SHAP explanations; InstaSHAP method.
result Automatic computation of Shapley values in a single forward pass.
We propose a flexible method for estimating value functions in reinforcement learning without parametric assumptions.
problem Lack of interpretability in reinforcement learning models, especially in healthcare applications.
method Nonparametric additive model using local kernel regression and basis expansion.
result Personalized, adaptive recommendations for postoperative recovery.
In plant and animal breeding studies a distinction is made between the genetic value (additive + epistatic genetic effects) and the breeding value (additive genetic effects) of an individual since it is expected that some of the epistatic genetic effects will be lost due to recombination. In this paper, we argue that t…
A new sampling scheme based on DOE improves Shapley value estimation accuracy and speed.
problem Heavy computational burden of calculating Shapley values in large coalition games.
method Design of Experiments (DOE) order-of-addition experimental designs for sampling.
result DOE-based sampling scheme yields more accurate and sometimes deterministic estimates of Shapley values.
Many applications of machine learning involve the analysis of large data frames-matrices collecting heterogeneous measurements (binary, numerical, counts, etc.) across samples-with missing values. Low-rank models, as studied by Udell et al. [30], are popular in this framework for tasks such as visualization, clustering…
Self-consistent models improve reinforcement learning by aligning predictions with future values.
problem Improving reinforcement learning by aligning model predictions with future values.
method Proposes multiple self-consistency updates to encourage a learned model and value function to be consistent with each other.
result Self-consistency helps both policy evaluation and control in both tabular and function approximation settings.
Derives formula for present value of future consumer goods multiplier.
problem Evaluating the present value of future consumer goods investments.
method Derives a formula based on geometric sequence and investigates macroeconomic implications.
result The present value of the future consumer goods multiplier is close to one.
Note that a newer expanded version of this paper is now available at: arXiv:1802.03888 It is critical in many applications to understand what features are important for a model, and why individual predictions were made. For tree ensemble methods these questions are usually answered by attributing importance values to i…
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
Shapley values criticized for feature selection, leading to new insights.
problem Using Shapley values for feature selection is problematic.
method Introduced and critiqued Shapley values as feature selection tools, using counterexamples and simulations.
result Shapley values may not always align with feature selection goals.
Study predicts soccer player market values using machine learning and SHAP for interpretability.
problem Predicting accurate market values for professional soccer players.
method Ensemble machine learning models, SHAP for interpretability, Boruta for feature selection.
result GBDT model achieved high predictive accuracy (R-squared 0.901, RMSE 3,221,632.175).
A new framework explains mixed models by propagating Shapley values.
problem Making complex models like neural networks and stacked models explainable for healthcare applications.
method DeepSHAP framework for layer-wise propagation of Shapley values.
result DeepSHAP enables attributions for mixed models and theoretically justifies attributions with respect to a background distribution.
We define a new kind of helicoidal surface of value m. A rotational surface which is isometric to the helicoidal surface of value m is revealed. In addition, we calculate some differential geometric properties of the helicoidal surface of value 3 in three dimensional Euclidean space.
Proposes a new method to avoid model extrapolation in Shapley values.
problem Model extrapolation in marginal Shapley values leads to unreliable explanations.
method Proposes a new approach that avoids model extrapolation using marginal averaging and causal information.
result Demonstrates the impacts of model extrapolation on Shapley values and proposes a new method to avoid it.
We focus on mean-variance hedging problem for models whose asset price follows an exponential additive process. Some representations of mean-variance hedging strategies for jump type models have already been suggested, but none is suited to develop numerical methods of the values of strategies for any given time up to …
Recent model-free reinforcement learning algorithms have proposed incorporating learned dynamics models as a source of additional data with the intention of reducing sample complexity. Such methods hold the promise of incorporating imagined data coupled with a notion of model uncertainty to accelerate the learning of c…
RDIS fills missing values in time series data explicitly.
problem Missing values in time series data.
method Random Drop Imputation with Self-training.
result RDIS achieves competitive results on real-world datasets.
We consider a utility-maximization problem in a general semimartingale financial model, subject to constraints on the number of shares held in each risky asset. These constraints are modeled by predictable convex-set-valued processes whose values do not necessarily contain the origin; that is, it may be inadmissible fo…
Investigates VaR behavior for sums of one-sided random variables, showing impossibilities and conditions for super-additivity.
problem Investigates the behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for sums of one-sided random variables.
method Analyzes the extremal aggregation behavior of VaR, introduces structural conditions for super-additivity.
result Characterizes when VaR is fully super-additive and provides unified framework for various dependence structures.
In predictive process analytics, current and historical process data in event logs is used to predict the future, e.g., to predict the next activity or how long a process will still require to complete. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) and its subclasses have been demonstrated to be well suited for creating prediction m…
Shapley values for feature importance lead to mathematical and practical issues.
problem Mathematical and practical issues with Shapley values for feature importance.
method Game-theoretic formulations of feature importance using Shapley values.
result Mathematical problems arise when using Shapley values for feature importance.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
The main goal of this paper is presentation a modern axiomatic approach to financial arithmetic. At the first, the axiomatic financial arithmetic theory was proposed by Peccati who has introduced the axiomatic definition of the future value. This theory has been extensively developed in past years. Proposed approach to…
Study uses viscosity solutions to solve control problems involving measure-valued martingales.
problem Stochastic control problems with measure-valued martingale state processes.
method Viscosity solution approach exploiting structural properties of MVM processes.
result Value function is the unique viscosity solution to the HJB equation.
Develops efficient inference for noise heterogeneity in machine learning models.
problem Downstream procedures based on residuals can be biased in additive noise models.
method Semiparametrically efficient inference using a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator.
result Constructs tests and confidence intervals for residual independence and goodness of fit.
As the amount and complexity of genetic information increases it is necessary that we explore some efficient ways of handling these data. This study takes the "divide and conquer" approach for analyzing high dimensional genomic data. Our aims include reducing the dimensionality of the problem that has to be dealt one a…
Generative modeling over natural images is one of the most fundamental machine learning problems. However, few modern generative models, including Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Nets (WGANs), are studied on manifold-valued images that are frequently encountered in real-world applications. To fill the gap, this pape…
The study examines how including additional call option prices affects model-independent price bounds for exotic derivatives.
problem Improving model-independent price bounds for exotic derivatives using additional call option prices.
method Characterization of market settings that guarantee improved price bounds and exclusion of any improvement.
result The inclusion of additional call option prices can significantly impact model-independent price bounds.
Paper proposes efficient SHAP computation methods.
problem Efficient computation of SHAP values for machine learning models.
method Develops polynomial time methods for SHAP computation based on model structure.
result Exact SHAP computation in polynomial time for various model structures.
We derive bounds on the distribution function, therefore also on the Value-at-Risk, of φ(X) where φ is an aggregation function and X=(X1,…,Xd) is a random vector with known marginal distributions and partially known dependence structure. More specifically, we analyze three type…
Representing entities and relations in an embedding space is a well-studied approach for machine learning on relational data. Existing approaches, however, primarily focus on simple link structure between a finite set of entities, ignoring the variety of data types that are often used in knowledge bases, such as text, …
We provide a unified view of additive explanations for dependent inputs.
problem Challenges in obtaining a tractable representation and estimating the decomposition for dependent inputs.
method Combining Hilbert space methods with generalized functional ANOVA, we build an explicit decomposition Riesz Basis.
result Proposed a simple yet powerful algorithm to estimate the decomposition from data.
New theorem for deep neural networks improves classification margins.
problem Improving classification margins in deep neural networks.
method Local class-purity theorem and margin p-values for training and testing samples.
result Enhanced understanding and computation of classification margins.
Complex-valued neural networks avoid spurious local minima.
problem Finding spurious local minima in neural networks.
method Proved no spurious local minima for shallow complex neural networks with quadratic activations.
result Complex-valued weights eliminate spurious local minima in neural networks.
Expands statistical background for knee osteoarthritis treatment models.
problem Developing optimal exercise and weight loss treatments for knee osteoarthritis.
method Precision medicine models and jackknife cross-validation method.
result Jackknife estimator provides consistent value function estimation.
Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a widely used technique in many applications such as face recognition, motion segmentation, etc. It approximates the nonnegative data in an original high dimensional space with a linear representation in a low dimensional space by using the product of two nonnegative matrices. …
Method detects errors in numerical data using regression models.
problem Noise and errors in numerical datasets.
method Introduced veracity scores and a filtering procedure for error detection.
result Method outperforms other approaches in identifying incorrect values.
New framework assesses value of labeled vs unlabeled data in latent variable models.
problem Determining the optimal use of labeled and unlabeled data in latent variable models.
method Developed a bias-variance decomposition of the generalization error for method-of-moments latent variable estimation, and introduced a correction for misspecification.
result Labeled data is more valuable than unlabeled data when models are misspecified, but this value can be reduced with correction.
We study U(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We deri…
Develops a framework for modeling set-valued data in continuous-time.
problem Handling sequences where each event is associated with a set of items.
method General framework for modeling set-valued data, developed inference methods, and importance sampling techniques.
result Orders-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency for probabilistic queries over direct sampling.
Based on forward curves modelled as Hilbert-space valued processes, we analyse the pricing of various options relevant in energy markets. In particular, we connect empirical evidence about energy forward prices known from the literature to propose stochastic models. Forward prices can be represented as linear functions…
Paper extracts features from time series to improve forecasting accuracy.
problem Forecasting time series generated by Itô-type processes with unknown coefficients.
method Statistical adjustment of mixture-type models to extract features from time series data.
result Additional statistical features enhance time series prediction accuracy.
Pion optimizes LLMs by preserving weight matrix singular values.
problem Training large language models (LLMs) with standard optimizers leads to unstable weight matrices.
method Pion uses orthogonal transformations to update weight matrices, preserving their singular values.
result Pion offers a stable alternative to standard optimizers for LLM pretraining and finetuning.