Enhanced ad event prediction boosts performance.
problem Improving ad performance metrics like CTR and CVR.
method New feature engineering approach for ad event prediction.
result Significantly outperforms alternative prediction algorithms.
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48 results for “ad event prediction”
Click through rate (CTR) prediction is very important for Native advertisement but also hard as there is no direct query intent. In this paper we propose a large-scale event embedding scheme to encode the each user browsing event by training a Siamese network with weak supervision on the users' consecutive events. The …
The increased adoption of Electronic Health Records(EHRs) has brought changes to the way the patient care is carried out. The rich heterogeneous and temporal data space stored in EHRs can be leveraged by machine learning models to capture the underlying information and make clinically relevant predictions. This can be …
A Deep Learning Method for Predicting Mergers and Acquisitions: Temporal Dynamic Industry Networksq-fin.ST
Deep learning predicts M&A events in industry networks.
problem Predicting M&A behaviors in competitive industries with complex interdependencies.
method Temporal Dynamic Industry Network (TDIN) model using temporal point processes and deep learning.
result Effective M&A event prediction and actionable recommendations.
Study predicts ad conversions based on URL embeddings.
problem Predicting user conversion likelihood from visited URLs.
method Introduced URL embedding models and evaluated conversion prediction models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of URL embedding models for conversion prediction.
When Does Order Flow Matter? State-Dependent L2 Liquidity-State Transitions in Crypto Futuresq-fin.TR
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
Models for predicting the risk of cardiovascular events based on individual patient characteristics are important tools for managing patient care. Most current and commonly used risk prediction models have been built from carefully selected epidemiological cohorts. However, the homogeneity and limited size of such coho…
This paper explores using a Long short-term memory (LSTM) based sequence autoencoder to learn interesting features for detecting surveillance aircraft using ADS-B flight data. An aircraft periodically broadcasts ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast) data to ground receivers. The ability of LSTM networks …
DHEN improves CVR prediction for ads with multitask learning and auxiliary loss.
problem Predicting conversion rates in ad-recommendation systems.
method DHEN integrates multiple feature-crossing modules and uses a multitask learning framework, ablation studies, and self-supervised auxiliary loss.
result DHEN achieves state-of-the-art performance in CVR prediction.
Mitigating Divergence of Latent Factors via Dual Ascent for Low Latency Event Prediction Modelscs.LG
Method prevents model divergence in rapidly changing ad markets.
problem Model divergence due to rapid ad turnover and discontinuity.
method Dual ascent optimization with latent vector constraints.
result Significant reduction in diverging instances and improved user experience/revenue.
Study examines APOE's impact on AD progression using a novel DEBM approach.
problem Understanding APOE's role in AD progression and developing targeted clinical trials.
method Developed a discriminative event-based model (DEBM) and proposed a stratified approach to improve model accuracy.
result Identified APOE carriers' impact on AD progression timeline, aiding clinical trial selection.
PRESTO improves rare event prediction by shrinking towards proportional odds model.
problem Difficult to predict rare events due to class imbalance.
method PRESTO relaxes proportional odds model by estimating separate weights for transitions between categories, imposing L1 penalty to shrink towards proportional odds.
result PRESTO consistently estimates decision boundary weights under sparsity assumption, improving rare probability estimation.
ICODEN models survival data with interval-censored times using neural networks and ODEs.
problem Predicting time-to-event outcomes with interval-censored data, especially when models require strong assumptions or cannot handle high-dimensional predictors.
method ICODEN uses ordinary differential equations and deep neural networks to model the hazard function and cumulative hazard without proportional hazards assumption.
result ICODEN achieves satisfactory predictive accuracy across various simulation and real-world applications, handling high-dimensional predictors robustly.
A new HP model balances interpretability and flexibility for EHR event sequences.
problem Balancing interpretability and flexibility in modeling diagnostic event sequences.
method Proposes a neural network-based HP with flexible impact kernel and transformer layers.
result Accurately recovers impact functions, competitive performance, and clinically meaningful interpretation.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
Proposes a method to predict stock movements using fine-grained events from finance news.
problem Lack of specific semantic information in coarse-grained events for stock movement prediction.
method Built a finance event dictionary, extracted fine-grained events, combined with stock trade data, and used distant supervision for training.
result Method outperforms all baselines and shows good generalizability.
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
problem Dynamic prediction of alternating recurrent events with statistical nuance.
method Developed an online dynamic prediction framework using neural network theory.
result Outstanding performance in predicting alternating recurrent event-free time.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
As part of the 2016 public evaluation challenge on Detection and Classification of Acoustic Scenes and Events (DCASE 2016), the second task focused on evaluating sound event detection systems using synthetic mixtures of office sounds. This task, which follows the `Event Detection - Office Synthetic' task of DCASE 2013,…
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Models predict fire and other emergencies in Edmonton.
problem Accurate prediction of emergency events for timely response.
method Data collection, descriptive analysis, feature selection, and negative binomial regression.
result Models perform well, with acceptable prediction errors for weekly and monthly periods.
In predictive process analytics, current and historical process data in event logs is used to predict the future, e.g., to predict the next activity or how long a process will still require to complete. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) and its subclasses have been demonstrated to be well suited for creating prediction m…
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Online advertising is an important and huge industry. Having knowledge of the website attributes can contribute greatly to business strategies for ad-targeting, content display, inventory purchase or revenue prediction. Classical inferences on users and sites impose challenge, because the data is voluminous, sparse, hi…
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
Boost-R uses gradient boosted trees for analyzing recurrence data.
problem Analyzing recurrence data with static and dynamic features.
method Gradient boosted additive trees with time-dependent functions.
result Estimates the cumulative intensity function of recurrent event processes.
Improved conversion rate prediction in online advertising using self-supervised pre-training.
problem Data sparsity and calibration issues in predicting conversions given clicks.
method Self-supervised pre-training on all conversion events to enrich CVR prediction model without compromising calibration.
result Improvements in offline training and online A/B tests, with full deployment to Yahoo native advertising system.
Inference, Prediction, and Entropy-Rate Estimation of Continuous-time, Discrete-event Processescond-mat.stat-mech
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
This monograph introduces deep learning models for predicting time-to-event outcomes.
problem Predicting critical events and their timing from time series data.
method Neural networks and deep learning models for survival analysis.
result Improved accuracy in predicting time-to-event outcomes using deep learning.
The method learns to partition event time space for better prediction.
problem Improving event time prediction in clinical settings with limited data.
method Develops a method to learn cut points for partitioning event time space.
result Improved prediction performance on real-world datasets.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
Neural model uses deductive database to predict events from past patterns.
problem Difficulty in predicting future events from past patterns when event types are large.
method Temporal deductive database with rules to prove facts from other facts and past events. Neural nets model fact states and probabilities.
result Neural models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding domain knowledge.
We show social events can be accurately predicted, but often undesirably.
problem The predictability of social events and its implications.
method Recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability.
result Social events can be efficiently predicted accurately, but often undesirably.
Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on pred…
Despite recent advances in training recurrent neural networks (RNNs), capturing long-term dependencies in sequences remains a fundamental challenge. Most approaches use backpropagation through time (BPTT), which is difficult to scale to very long sequences. This paper proposes a simple method that improves the ability …
A new model calibrates survival predictions for better risk assessment.
problem Calibrated time-to-event predictions are crucial but underexplored.
method Survival function estimator using neural network draws, without adversarial learning.
result The model outperforms existing approaches in calibration and distribution concentration.
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
Model uses LLM features to predict stock returns effectively.
problem Predicting stock returns from text data.
method Structured Event Representation (SER) model with attention mechanisms.
result SER-based model outperforms existing models in stock return prediction.
Improves CTR prediction by considering spatial and temporal auxiliary ads.
problem Improving CTR prediction in online advertising systems.
method Deep Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks (DSTNs) for CTR prediction.
result DSTNs outperform state-of-the-art methods in CTR prediction.
Predicting click and conversion probabilities when bidding on ad exchanges is at the core of the programmatic advertising industry. Two separated lines of previous works respectively address i) the prediction of user conversion probability and ii) the attribution of these conversions to advertising events (such as clic…
We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model and predict such kind of marked temporal dynamics, i.e., when the next event wil…
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
problem Risk assessment of domino effects like earthquakes and tsunamis.
method Develops a Kolmogorov-Arnold neural network (KANE) framework.
result Estimates the probability of one extreme event triggering another.
The combination of large open data sources with machine learning approaches presents a potentially powerful way to predict events such as protest or social unrest. However, accounting for uncertainty in such models, particularly when using diverse, unstructured datasets such as social media, is essential to guarantee t…
Simple tabular event prediction model outperforms existing methods.
problem Predicting events from tabular data with historic events.
method Standard autoregressive LLM-style transformers with elementary positional embeddings and causal language modeling.
result Simple model outperforms existing approaches across various datasets and use-cases.
Study compares resampling methods for rare event prediction in longitudinal studies.
problem Predicting rare events in longitudinal follow-up studies.
method Comparison of resampling methods to improve standard regression models.
result Effect of sampling rate on model predictive performance.
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can…
Predict sepsis early from EHR data with aggregated clinical events.
problem Predict sepsis from clinical data in EHR with temporal interactions.
method Aggregates heterogeneous clinical events, captures temporal interactions with LSTM.
result Achieved high utility score (0.321) in PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2019.