A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the case that the weight determining the acceptance probability itself is fluctuati…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
Generation of pseudorandom numbers from different probability distributions has been studied extensively in the Monte Carlo simulation literature. Two standard generation techniques are the acceptance-rejection and inverse transformation methods. An alternative approach to Monte Carlo simulation is the quasi-Monte Carl…
New method corrects bias in stochastic gradient samplers.
The paper is aware of the importance of certain figures that are essential to an understanding of Credit Scoring models in credit acceptance process optimization, namely if the power of discrimination measured by Gini value is increased by 5% then the profit of the process can be increased monthly by about 1 500 kPLN (…
YOASOVI improves stochastic VI for large models with fast, self-correcting sampling.
Enhances RJMCMC efficiency with non-linear transport-based proposals.
The principle of peer review is central to the evaluation of research, by ensuring that only high-quality items are funded or published. But peer review has also received criticism, as the selection of reviewers may introduce biases in the system. In 2014, the organizers of the ``Neural Information Processing Systems\r…
Optimal scaling for proximal MALA in high dimensions confirmed.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly intractable problem. In this paper, we discussed and compared two existing solu…
Consider an agent who enters a financial market on day t = 0 with an initial capital amount x. He invests this amount on stocks and the money market, and by day t = T, has generated a wealth W . He is given a convex class of probability measures (called scenarios) and a real-valued function (or floors) corresponding to…
A one-to-one correspondence is drawn between law invariant risk measures and divergences, which we define as functionals of pairs of probability measures on arbitrary standard Borel spaces satisfying a few natural properties. Divergences include many classical information divergence measures, such as relative entropy a…
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
In many applications, accurate class probability estimates are required, but many types of models produce poor quality probability estimates despite achieving acceptable classification accuracy. Even though probability calibration has been a hot topic of research in recent times, the majority of this has investigated n…
Machine learning provides algorithms that can learn from data and make inferences or predictions on data. Stochastic acceptors or probabilistic automata are stochastic automata without output that can model components in machine learning scenarios. In this paper, we provide dynamic programming algorithms for the comput…
We propose a generalization of the classical notion of the that takes into account not only the probability of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. This is obtained by defining a new class of law invariant risk measures based on an appropriate family of acceptance set…
Study optimizes step size for Metropolis algorithm in non-identifiable cases.
For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic regression by adjusting the class balance locally in feature space via an accept-reject …
We address the M-best-arm identification problem in multi-armed bandits. A player has a limited budget to explore K arms (M<K), and once pulled, each arm yields a reward drawn (independently) from a fixed, unknown distribution. The goal is to find the top M arms in the sense of expected reward. We develop an algorithm …
New algorithm MTMC reduces MCMC evaluation costs.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
New star-shaped acceptability indexes generalize existing methods.
New MC simulation methods use classifiers to estimate pdf ratios without explicit pdfs.
ECPv2 optimizes Lipschitz functions efficiently and scalably.
The valuation process that economic agents undergo for investments with uncertain payoff typically depends on their statistical views on possible future outcomes, their attitudes toward risk, and, of course, the payoff structure itself. Yields vary across different investment opportunities and their interrelations are …
Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by post-processing but commonly used calibration algorithms work poorly on small data…
Studies acceptable bundles on a partially punctured polydisk.
New method combines neural networks with Monte Carlo for complex system reliability.
Study on acceptable bundles on a punctured disk.
New method improves sampling from score-based models by correcting bias.
Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
The paper develops a theory for speculative decoding acceptance criteria.
Revisits PPO design choices, exposing failure modes and proposing alternatives.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) samples efficiently from high-dimensional posterior distributions with proposed parameter draws obtained by iterating on a discretized version of the Hamiltonian dynamics. The iterations make HMC computationally costly, especially in problems with large datasets, since it is necessary to c…
Polynomial-time algorithm for near-optimal community detection in graphs.
We show how risk measures originally defined in a model free framework in terms of acceptance sets and reference assets imply a meaningful underlying probability structure. Hereafter we construct a maximal domain of definition of the risk measure respecting the underlying ambiguity profile. We particularly emphasise li…
Cactus improves auto-regressive decoding speed without sacrificing quality.
NUTS mixing time scales as d^(1/4) for Gaussian distributions.
Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.
We propose a new metaheuristic training scheme that combines Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and Discrete Optimization in an unconventional way. Our idea is to define a discrete neighborhood of the current SGD point containing a number of "potentially good moves" that exploit gradient information, and to search this …
Improves algorithmic recourse to guide towards both acceptance and improvement.
This contribution is concerned with price optimisation of the new business for a non-life product. Due to high competition in the insurance market, non-life insurers are interested in increasing their conversion rates on new business based on some profit level. In this respect, we consider the competition in the market…
We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex duality in a Knightian setting, where a family of probability measures replaces th…
The paper studies optimal investment using acceptability indices to maximize portfolio performance.
New method calibrates reference distributions for bounded support.
Hallucinations in models are mislinked estimates, not errors.
Estimates boundaries for acceptable bilateral gamma risk in financial markets.
Paper predicts embryo implantation probability from IVF time-lapse imaging.