A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper is devoted to regret lower bounds in the classical model of stochastic multi-armed bandit. A well-known result of Lai and Robbins, which has then been extended by Burnetas and Katehakis, has established the presence of a logarithmic bound for all consistent policies. We relax the notion of consistence, and e…
This paper analyzes regret bounds for Gaussian process Thompson sampling.
problem Analyzing the performance of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) in Bayesian optimization.
method The paper derives several regret bounds for GP-TS, including a lower bound, upper bounds on the second moment of cumulative regret, expected lenient regret, and improved cumulative regret.
result The paper provides improved regret upper bounds for GP-TS, showing that it suffers from a polynomial dependence on 1/δ with probability δ.
I introduce and analyse an anytime version of the Optimally Confident UCB (OCUCB) algorithm designed for minimising the cumulative regret in finite-armed stochastic bandits with subgaussian noise. The new algorithm is simple, intuitive (in hindsight) and comes with the strongest finite-time regret guarantees for a hori…
For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current methods for exact high confidence off-policy evaluation that use importance sampl…
We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs of actions. We propose two strategies for the fixed-confidence setting: Maximin…
Contextual bandits are widely used in Internet services from news recommendation to advertising, and to Web search. Generalized linear models (logistical regression in particular) have demonstrated stronger performance than linear models in many applications where rewards are binary. However, most theoretical analyses …
We consider the problem of near-optimal arm identification in the fixed confidence setting of the infinitely armed bandit problem when nothing is known about the arm reservoir distribution. We (1) introduce a PAC-like framework within which to derive and cast results; (2) derive a sample complexity lower bound for near…
We study the linear contextual bandit problem with finite action sets. When the problem dimension is d, the time horizon is T, and there are n≤2d/2 candidate actions per time period, we (1) show that the minimax expected regret is Ω(dT(logT)(logn)) for every algorithm, and (2) introduce a V…
We consider the problem of \textit{best arm identification} with a \textit{fixed budget T}, in the K-armed stochastic bandit setting, with arms distribution defined on [0,1]. We prove that any bandit strategy, for at least one bandit problem characterized by a complexity H, will misidentify the best arm with pr…
This paper studies the problem of finding the exact ranking from noisy comparisons. A comparison over a set of m items produces a noisy outcome about the most preferred item, and reveals some information about the ranking. By repeatedly and adaptively choosing items to compare, we want to fully rank the items with a …
The estimation of probabilities of default (PDs) for low default portfolios by means of upper confidence bounds is a well established procedure in many financial institutions. However, there are often discussions within the institutions or between institutions and supervisors about which confidence level to use for the…
This note gives a short, self-contained, proof of a sharp connection between Gittins indices and Bayesian upper confidence bound algorithms. I consider a Gaussian multi-armed bandit problem with discount factor γ. The Gittins index of an arm is shown to equal the γ-quantile of the posterior distribution of the arm'…
The paper proposes a novel upper confidence bound (UCB) procedure for identifying the arm with the largest mean in a multi-armed bandit game in the fixed confidence setting using a small number of total samples. The procedure cannot be improved in the sense that the number of samples required to identify the best arm i…
Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of upper and lower bounds on the potential outcomes of decision alternatives to assess …