Proposes a novel graph self-training method with EM regularization for semi-supervised node classification.
problem Handles noisy graph structures and feature spaces in semi-supervised node classification.
method Introduces an Expectation-Maximization (EM) regularization scheme for uncertainty-aware pseudo-label generation and model retraining.
result Significantly outperforms strong baselines by up to 2.5% in accuracy.
Develops geometric framework for uncertainty-aware multi-class classification.
problem Silent failure of AI models when uncertain, especially in multi-class settings.
method Geometric framework treating probability vectors as points on the (c−1)-dimensional probability simplex, using Fisher--Rao metric for calibration and uncertainty quantification. result Empirical validation shows 72.5% of errors captured while deferring 34.5% of ambiguous predictions, reducing automated decision error rates from 16.8% to 6.9%.
New framework models uncertainty in classification debates.
problem Weak interpretability of existing uncertainty quantification methods.
method Courtroom analogy and Mixture of Dirichlet Experts (MoDEX) model.
result MoDEX achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance.
GUST framework improves self-training by estimating node uncertainty and generating pseudo-labels.
problem Over-confidence in pseudo-labels during self-training.
method Graph-based uncertainty-aware self-training with stochastic node labeling.
result GUST achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially in sparse labeled data settings.
UBMF tackles fault diagnosis in imbalanced industrial data with enhanced accuracy and adaptability.
problem Fault diagnosis challenges in imbalanced industrial data.
method Integrates four key modules: data perturbation, cross-task feature extraction, uncertainty-based filtering, and Bayesian meta-knowledge integration.
result Achieves an average improvement of 42.22% across ten diagnostic tasks.
Bayesian neural networks improve SHD classification and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving screening for structural heart disease using noninvasive ECG and echocardiography.
method Comparing frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers on the EchoNext dataset.
result Bayesian classifiers provide more robust uncertainty quantification.
GOIMDA selects inputs to maximize expected influence on a goal functional, reducing data acquisition needs.
problem Challenges in active data acquisition for learning and optimization tasks in deep neural networks.
method GOIMDA uses inverse curvature and goal gradient to select inputs maximizing expected influence on a specified goal functional.
result GOIMDA achieves target performance with fewer labeled samples or function evaluations compared to baselines.
SPACR trains uncertainty-aware regressors directly within a single pass, improving efficiency and validity.
problem Training uncertainty-aware regressors while maintaining efficiency and validity.
method Joint optimization of efficiency and validity during training.
result SPACR consistently provides tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR.
Semi-supervised GANs with log-signatures improve credit card fraud detection.
problem Detecting fraud in large, complex financial transaction data streams.
method Conditional GANs with Bayesian inference and log-signatures for robust feature encoding.
result Consistent improvements over benchmarks in global and domain-specific metrics.
We present a general framework for classification of sparse and irregularly-sampled time series. The properties of such time series can result in substantial uncertainty about the values of the underlying temporal processes, while making the data difficult to deal with using standard classification methods that assume …
AURA: Adaptive Uncertainty-aware Refinement for LLM-as-a-Judge Auditing
problem Auditing LLM-as-a-Judge decisions
method Adaptive uncertainty-aware refinement
result Human-consistent signal learning and evidence propagation
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty-aware LLM post-training.
problem Heterogeneous, conflicting data in large language models.
method α-Rényi variational framework for learning distributions over post-training parameters.
result Enables training examples to be softly routed across ensemble members, promoting model specialisation and providing uncertainty estimates.
New algorithm reduces discrimination in predictions.
problem Tackles potential discrimination in AI predictions.
method Integrates fairness adjustments into tree-building process.
result Reduces discriminatory predictions without significant loss in accuracy.
Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.
problem Discovering Granger causal relations from multivariate time-series data.
method Bayesian Vector AutoRegression with factorised Granger-Causal Graphs.
result Our method achieves better performance, especially in low-data regimes.
Model-based reinforcement learning has the potential to be more sample efficient than model-free approaches. However, existing model-based methods are vulnerable to model bias, which leads to poor generalization and asymptotic performance compared to model-free counterparts. In addition, they are typically based on the…
Study on estimating conditional risk in machine learning.
problem Estimating expected loss of prediction models given input features.
method Analyzed in classification and regression settings, showing equivalence to standard regression. Developed theoretical insights and empirical validation.
result Conditional risk calibration is distinct from existing uncertainty quantification problems.
A framework for uncertainty-aware multimodal learning using conformal Shapley intervals.
problem Uncertainty and modality level importance in multimodal learning.
method Introduces conformal Shapley intervals to quantify modality level importance and uncertainty.
result Demonstrates meaningful uncertainty quantification and strong predictive performance.
Study improves LLMs for PPI analysis by addressing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in LLM predictions for PPIs.
method Fine-tuned LLaMA-3 and BioMedGPT models, LoRA ensembles, Bayesian LoRA for UQ.
result Competitive PPI identification performance across diverse disease contexts.
New method improves deep learning models' uncertainty estimates.
problem Overconfidence in deep learning predictions.
method Develops a novel training algorithm using conformal inference.
result Produces more reliable uncertainty estimates without sacrificing accuracy.
Efficiently approximates uncertainty in classification models using Dirichlet distributions.
problem Inefficient computation of uncertainty estimates in Bayesian deep learning.
method Revised Laplace Bridge method to construct a Dirichlet approximation of softmax output distributions.
result The Dirichlet approximation leads to more efficient computation and better uncertainty estimates.
A scalable framework selects top factors from CAE latent factors for better portfolio optimization.
problem Limited latent factor dimension in CAE models degrades performance.
method Couple high-dimensional CAE with uncertainty-aware factor selection.
result Pruning strategy delivers substantial gains in risk-adjusted performance.
New method tackles label noise on imbalanced datasets by considering class-specific uncertainty.
problem Label noise and class imbalance in imbalanced datasets.
method Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty-aware class-specific noise modeling.
result Proposed ULC framework improves performance on imbalanced datasets.
A simple approach to obtaining uncertainty-aware neural networks for regression is to do Bayesian linear regression (BLR) on the representation from the last hidden layer. Recent work [Riquelme et al., 2018, Azizzadenesheli et al., 2018] indicates that the method is promising, though it has been limited to homoscedasti…
Bayesian framework improves ML classification models' uncertainty estimates.
problem Ensuring trustworthy AI predictions with explicit uncertainty quantification.
method Proposes a Bayesian framework for generative ML classification models that accounts for input measurement uncertainty.
result The BQDA model outperforms other models in terms of interpretability, explicit uncertainty modeling, and computational efficiency.
NADS improves OoD detection accuracy by 57%.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning models when encountering out-of-distribution data.
method NADS searches for a distribution of architectures that perform well on a given task, optimizing a stochastic OoD detection objective.
result NADS achieves up to 57% improvement in accuracy over state-of-the-art methods.
GeFs use deep generative models to enhance prediction robustness and uncertainty.
problem Lack of principled methods to manipulate uncertainty in decision trees and random forests.
method Exploits Generative Forests (GeFs), a deep probabilistic model that extends Random Forests to represent full joint distributions.
result GeFs are uncertainty-aware classifiers capable of measuring robustness and detecting out-of-distribution samples.
NatPN provides fast, accurate uncertainty estimation for exponential family distributions.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning models.
method NatPN uses Normalizing Flows to fit a single density in a latent space, updating predictions based on likelihood.
result NatPN delivers competitive performance in classification, regression, and count prediction tasks.
The paper extends explainability methods to uncertainty-aware models, revealing feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
problem Understanding the factors contributing to uncertainty in probabilistic models.
method Adapting permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots to measure feature impacts on predictive entropy and likelihood.
result Novel insights into model behaviour and feature impacts on uncertainty are obtained.
A new model combines Gaussian processes with collaborative filtering for uncertainty-aware recommendations.
problem Uncertainty in recommendation systems.
method Combining Gaussian process multi-output models with collaborative filtering.
result Generates uncertainty estimates for predictions.
Bayesian optimization reduces materials design costs by 10x.
problem Expensive materials design search space with mixed variables.
method Uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed numerical and categorical variables.
result Frequentist and Bayesian models perform differently in mixed-variable BO.
A new method for semi-supervised learning with missing data using GMM and margin confidence.
problem Handling missing data in semi-supervised learning with classification uncertainty.
method Explicitly models missingness mechanism, uses margin confidence and Aranda Ordaz function, develops ECM algorithm.
result Effective reduction of bias and robustness in semi-supervised learning with substantial missing labels.
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge th…
Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the uncertainty-aware imitation learning (UAIL) algorithm for improving end-to-end control…
This paper improves Bayesian inference for predictive models with limited data.
problem Effective uncertainty quantification for training predictive models with limited data.
method Entropy-regularized gradient estimators to approximate the Bayesian posterior.
result The method generates diverse samples from the posterior distribution efficiently.
UAPCA projects uncertain data to low dimensions using GMMs.
problem Uncertain multidimensional data not well described by normal distributions.
method Model data with Gaussian mixture models, derive UAPCA projection from general formulation.
result Low-dimensional projections better represent multidimensional distributions.
UTE improves reinforcement learning by measuring action uncertainty, enhancing policy learning efficiency.
problem Degrading performance of action repetition in reinforcement learning, especially with sub-optimal actions.
method UTE uses ensemble methods to measure uncertainty during action extension, allowing strategic exploration or certainty.
result UTE outperforms existing action repetition algorithms, significantly enhancing policy learning efficiency.
New algorithm improves deep learning stability with limited data.
problem Stability and robustness in reinforcement learning with scarce data.
method Uncertainty-aware trust region approach to policy optimization.
result Stable policy updates adapt to uncertainty levels during learning.
DINOSAUR improves retrieval by accounting for embedding uncertainty in recommender systems.
problem Retrieval bias towards popular items due to noisy embeddings.
method Samples multiple embeddings per item and queries with sampled embeddings to account for uncertainty.
result Improves coverage of long-tail niche content without sacrificing recall.
Fair ML systems can be safe ML systems by considering uncertainty.
problem Safety of data-driven decision systems is often neglected.
method Viewing ML systems as socio-technical, uncertainty-aware modeling.
result Fair models should be uncertainty-aware, e.g. through distributional regression.
A new method improves robustness in image translation by modeling uncertainty.
problem Performance degradation in image translation models due to lack of robustness to outliers and uncertainty.
method UGAC method based on Uncertainty-aware Generalized Adaptive Cycle Consistency, modeling per-pixel residual with generalized Gaussian distribution.
result Our method exhibits stronger robustness towards unseen perturbations in test data.
New metrics improve uncertainty estimation on graph data.
problem Current GNNs focus only on nodewise scores, limiting uncertainty estimation.
method Proposed edgewise metrics for uncertainty estimation on graphs.
result GNN models with structured prediction perform better in uncertainty estimation.
Hybrid AI and rule-based framework de-identifies medical imaging data.
problem De-identifying medical imaging data to protect PHI and PII.
method Combines rule-based and AI techniques with uncertainty quantification.
result Robust performance across benchmark datasets and regulatory standards.
Improves state space models' resistance to noise.
problem State space models' initialization assumes noise-free data, which is often violated.
method Uncertainty-aware initialization for state space models, reformulating HiPPO with measurement noise.
result Improves model resistance to noise at training and inference time.
Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent unce…
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
We present a technique to perform dimensionality reduction on data that is subject to uncertainty. Our method is a generalization of traditional principal component analysis (PCA) to multivariate probability distributions. In comparison to non-linear methods, linear dimensionality reduction techniques have the advantag…