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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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51102152203 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Uncertainty explanation

New framework quantifies uncertainties in neural network explanations.

problem Lack of methods to quantify uncertainties in neural network explanations.
method Converts any explanation method into a Bayesian neural network method, modeling uncertainties.
result Allows quantification of explanation uncertainties and appropriate confidence levels.

New methods improve uncertainty explanations for models.

problem Improving interpretation of uncertainty estimates from probabilistic models.
method Developed new methods to generate diverse and global explanations for uncertain model predictions.
result Generated diverse and global explanations for uncertain model predictions, addressing previous limitations.

Bayesian framework improves reliability and consistency of model explanations.

problem Inconsistent and unreliable explanations from state-of-the-art methods.
method Developed a novel Bayesian framework for generating local explanations with associated uncertainty.
result Generated explanations are consistent, stable, and provide credible intervals for feature importances.

Active learning has long been a topic of study in machine learning. However, as increasingly complex and opaque models have become standard practice, the process of active learning, too, has become more opaque. There has been little investigation into interpreting what specific trends and patterns an active learning st…

2017-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

CLUE method interprets uncertainty from BNNs by showing how inputs change to increase confidence.

problem Lack of work on interpreting uncertainty estimates from probabilistic models.
method CLUE method uses counterfactual explanations to interpret uncertainty from BNNs.
result CLUE outperforms baselines and helps practitioners understand predictive uncertainty.

The paper introduces a method to assess the reliability of model explanations.

problem Assessing the quality and reliability of model explanations.
method An Ordinal Consensus Approach using diverse bootstrapped surrogate explainers.
result Uncertainty estimates offer actionable insights beyond standard surrogate explainers.

New method provides calibrated feature importance explanations for regression models.

problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in existing local explanation methods.
method Extension of Calibrated Explanations method to support regression and probabilistic regression.
result Calibrated Explanations for regression provides quantified uncertainty and robust explanations.

RELAX provides first attribution-based explanations for representations.

problem Lack of methods to explain what influences learned representations.
method RELAX, a first approach for attribution-based explanations of representations, measuring similarities in representation space.
result Significantly outperforms gradient-based baseline and models uncertainty in explanations.

Proposes φφ-table for statistical SHAP explanations in regression models.

problem Lack of clear directional summaries, uncertainty, and fidelity in SHAP feature importance.
method SHAP importance selection, fitting a standardized linear surrogate, reporting coefficients, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
result Extends SHAP into a statistical global explanation with direction, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.

Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.

problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.

We introduce a new method to explain Gaussian processes using Shapley values.

problem Explaining the uncertainty in Gaussian process models.
method Extending Shapley values to stochastic cooperative games for Gaussian processes.
result Our method generates explanations that are random variables and satisfy favorable axioms.

Paper proposes Coalitional BAE to improve explainability of unsupervised deep learning models.

problem Improving explainability of Autoencoder's predictions.
method Introduces Coalitional BAE, inspired by agent-based system theory, to reduce correlation in explanations.
result Improved quality of explanations using Coalitional BAE on publicly available datasets.

Despite a growing literature on explaining neural networks, no consensus has been reached on how to explain a neural network decision or how to evaluate an explanation. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. First, we investigate schemes to combine explanation methods and reduce model uncertainty to obtain a sing…

2019-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.

problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.

Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.

problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.

EAGLE improves reproducibility and stability of model explanations.

problem Creating reliable explanations for opaque machine learning models.
method Formulates perturbation selection as an information-theoretic active learning problem.
result EAGLE learns a linear surrogate model with feature importance scores and uncertainty estimates.

Proposes a Bayesian approach to explain, justify, and quantify uncertainty in DNNs.

problem Lack of transparency and confidence in DNNs for critical applications.
method Bayesian approach to extract explanations, justifications, and uncertainty estimates from black box DNNs.
result Improves interpretability and reliability of DNNs, validated on CIFAR-10.

New framework improves attribution of predictive uncertainties in classification models.

problem Improper attribution of predictive uncertainties in classification tasks.
method Combines path integrals, counterfactual explanations, and generative models.
result Framework outperforms existing alternatives in quantitative evaluations.

The paper shows how uncertainty quantification improves counterfactual explainability in AI.

problem Lack of foundational concepts in transparency research.
method Integrates uncertainty quantification into counterfactual explainability.
result Demonstrates competitive performance of an uncertainty-based explainer.

Paper identifies problematic baselines in Shapley value explanations and proposes a reweighting mechanism.

problem Identifying and addressing the suboptimality of baselines in Shapley value feature importance analysis.
method Analyzed suboptimality of baselines, identified problematic baseline, generalized uninformativeness, and designed a reweighting mechanism.
result Proposed uncertainty-based reweighting mechanism effectively accelerates computation and improves explanation quality.

Unified framework explains few-shot multimodal medical imaging performance.

problem Limited labeled data in rare diseases and low-resource settings.
method PAC learning, VC theory, PAC Bayesian analysis, information gain, Chain of Thought reasoning.
result Unified theoretical framework for few-shot multimodal medical imaging.

Simplified Bayesian neural networks reduce model complexity and improve interpretability.

problem Over-parameterization and interpretability issues in deep learning models.
method Input-skip Latent Binary Bayesian Neural Networks (LBBNNs) that allow covariates to skip layers or be excluded.
result Significant reduction in model complexity (over 99%) with minimal loss in accuracy and uncertainty.

A new framework for robot block-stacking tasks using causal probabilistic models.

problem Robots fail outside controlled environments due to uncertainty and lack of explicit design for all scenarios.
method Causal probabilistic framework combining causal models and probabilistic representations of noise.
result Robots can perceive, reason about, and explain their environment for block-stacking tasks.

Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty calibration with DAP priors.

problem Improving predictive uncertainty in deep learning models outside training data.
method Distance-Aware Prior (DAP) calibration method to correct overconfidence.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in various classification and regression tasks.

This work improves neural network trustworthiness through uncertainty estimation.

problem Overconfident neural networks lead to poor performance under distribution shifts.
method Develops a general uncertainty framework for neural networks, including classification with rejection.
result Improves model trustworthiness and robustness in decision-making tasks.

We show that a neural network with arbitrary depth and non-linearities, with dropout applied before every weight layer, is mathematically equivalent to an approximation to a well known Bayesian model. This interpretation might offer an explanation to some of dropout's key properties, such as its robustness to over-fitt…

2015-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.

problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.

Study compares imputation methods' effects on IML confidence intervals.

problem Missing data impacts IML interpretation and confidence intervals.
method Compared single vs multiple imputation methods on IML confidence intervals.
result Multiple imputation provides closer coverage to nominal than single imputation.

The paper debiases mini-batch approximations in deep learning for more accurate optimization and uncertainty quantification.

problem Bias in mini-batch approximations distorts the shape of quadratic approximations used in deep learning.
method Developed and evaluated debiasing strategies for mini-batch approximations.
result Debiasing strategies improve the accuracy of second-order optimization and uncertainty quantification in deep learning.