Paper proposes online optimization for uncertain systems using machine learning and DRO.
problem Optimization of uncertain dynamical systems with distributional uncertainty.
method Combines machine learning with Distributional Robust Optimization (DRO) to handle uncertainty.
result Online solutions with probabilistic regret bounds for uncertain systems.
Bayesian algorithm stabilizes unknown continuous-time systems from unstable data.
problem Learning and stabilizing unknown continuous-time systems with uncertain dynamics.
method Bayesian learning algorithm that learns from unstable data to stabilize the system in finite time.
result The algorithm stabilizes unknown continuous-time stochastic linear systems effectively after a short time period.
Adapts MBDOE for real-time parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Costly posterior inference and design optimization in nonlinear systems.
method Combines DAD with differentiable mechanistic models for real-time parameter estimation.
result Demonstrated on four systems, including a DC motor.
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.
The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.
problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.
Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.
problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.
Autonomous lane changing is a critical feature for advanced autonomous driving systems, that involves several challenges such as uncertainty in other driver's behaviors and the trade-off between safety and agility. In this work, we develop a novel simulation environment that emulates these challenges and train a deep r…
New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.
problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Fault detection problem for closed loop uncertain dynamical systems, is investigated in this paper, using different deep learning based methods. Traditional classifier based method does not perform well, because of the inherent difficulty of detecting system level faults for closed loop dynamical system. Specifically, …
AntLer anticipates future learning to improve control performance.
problem Improving control performance through online learning is not well understood.
method AntLer uses a probabilistic model to anticipate future learning and optimize control parameters.
result AntLer approximates optimal solutions with high probability.
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work [26], to construct the model of the risky asset price and bid-ask pricing for the …
Framework for robust control in cooperative systems with uncertain common noise.
problem Optimizing collective behavior of agents in the presence of uncertain common noise.
method Proposes a robust mean-field control framework and proves existence of optimal controls.
result Existence of optimal open-loop controls linked to a lifted robust Markov decision problem.
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
Safe learning in uncertain systems with state measurements and optimization.
problem Safe learning in nonlinear control-affine systems with unknown additive uncertainty.
method Model uncertainty as Gaussian noise, learn mean and covariance, use optimization to adjust control input.
result Guaranteed safety with arbitrarily large probability while learning and control proceed simultaneously.
This paper first describes a class of uncertain stochastic control systems with Markovian switching, and derives an Itô-Liu formula for Markov-modulated processes. And we characterize an optimal control law, which satisfies the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with Markovian switching. Then, by using …
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
Control of non-episodic, finite-horizon dynamical systems with uncertain dynamics poses a tough and elementary case of the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Bayesian reinforcement learning, reasoning about the effect of actions and future observations, offers a principled solution, but is intractable. We review, then…
Climate projections suffer from uncertain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason behind this uncertainty is the resolution of global climate models, which is too coarse to resolve key processes such as clouds and convection. These processes are approximated using heuristics in a process called parameterization. Th…
Paper develops a fair pricing algorithm for dynamic settings with uncertain demand.
problem Fair pricing in dynamic, uncertain demand scenarios.
method Contextual bandit algorithm with dynamic pricing and demand learning.
result Achieves optimal regret bound with fairness constraints.
Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few uncertain variables or require large amounts of simulation data. In this paper, we…
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.
In unsupervised learning, there is no apparent straightforward cost function that can capture the significant factors of variations and similarities. Since natural systems have smooth dynamics, an opportunity is lost if an unsupervised objective function remains static during the training process. The absence of concre…
A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different datasets through model composition, enhance predictions of quantities of interest thr…
The target of this paper is to establish the bid-ask pricing frame work for the American contingent claims against risky assets with G-asset price systems (see \cite{Chen2013b}) on the financial market under Knight uncertainty. First, we prove G-Dooby-Meyer decomposition for G-supermartingale. Furthermore, we consider …
Survey of RL methods for optimizing power grid topologies.
problem Optimizing power grid operation with adaptive control strategies.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) for dynamic and uncertain environments.
result Comprehensive evaluation of RL-based methods for power grid topology optimization.
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
Noise can stabilize systemic risk models with uncertain robustness.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial systems with uncertain parameters.
method Analyzing a mean-field model of systemic risk with uncertain coefficients and noise.
result Noise can induce stability in systemic risk models, contrary to intuition.
Proposes a RL method using simulators for stabilizing uncertain systems.
problem Limited experiences and potential dangerous actions during RL learning of real systems.
method Two-stage approach: virtual systems for Q-function learning, real system interactions for final policy.
result Proposed method improves RL performance in uncertain discrete-time systems.
A method for accurate pricing of multidimensional derivatives under uncertain volatility.
problem High-dimensional stochastic control problem in uncertain volatility model.
method Backward actor-critic stochastic policy gradient scheme combining DP, PPO, and neural networks.
result Accurate and efficient pricing of multidimensional derivatives compared to benchmarks.
SPINN optimizes neural network inference on devices and cloud.
problem Inference on mobile devices is challenging due to high computational demands and dynamic connectivity.
method Synergistic progressive inference with a novel scheduler.
result SPINN achieves up to 2x higher throughput and reduces server cost by up to 6.8x.
Finding optimal feedback controllers for nonlinear dynamic systems from data is hard. Recently, Bayesian optimization (BO) has been proposed as a powerful framework for direct controller tuning from experimental trials. For selecting the next query point and finding the global optimum, BO relies on a probabilistic desc…
Synthesizes sensor likelihoods to enforce accuracy constraints in uncertain systems.
problem Designing sensing architectures for systems with uncertain or unavailable sensor models and accuracy requirements.
method Inverts the design flow, synthesizing measurement likelihoods that minimize Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior while enforcing an accuracy bound.
result The method synthesizes a maximum-entropy posterior and induced likelihood, accommodating various discrepancy metrics.
New algorithm minimizes worst-case regret in uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
problem Model-based policy learning in uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
method Planning regret metric and iterative algorithm for minimizing it.
result Empirical evidence shows the proposed algorithm outperforms existing methods.
PLoM learns stochastic solutions to PDEs with limited data.
problem Synthesizing solutions to nonlinear PDEs with scarce data.
method Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds constrained by PDEs.
result Learned stochastic solutions minimize PDE residuals.
LUQ learns QoI from dynamical systems for consistent observation inversion.
problem Quantifying uncertainties on model inputs corresponding to observable QoI in dynamical systems.
method LUQ framework for SIPs, including data filtering, dynamics learning, observation classification, and feature extraction.
result LUQ provides tractable solutions to SIPs for dynamical systems, enabling uncertainty quantification.
Develops inverse EKF for non-linear systems with stability guarantees and learning unknown dynamics.
problem Estimating adversary's Kalman-filtered estimates in highly non-linear systems.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for second-order, Gaussian sum, and dithered forward models. Uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space for learning unknown dynamics.
result Derives theoretical stability guarantees for inverse second-order EKF.
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably p…
HRM-Agent learns to navigate dynamic mazes using reinforcement learning.
problem Training HRM in dynamic, uncertain, partially observable environments.
method Reinforcement learning to train HRM-Agent.
result HRM-Agent successfully learns to navigate dynamic mazes.
SIP framework discovers governing equations in uncertain systems.
problem Discovering governing equations in systems with input variability and noisy data.
method SIP framework treats unknown coefficients as random variables and infers their posterior distribution by minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result SIP consistently identifies correct equations and lowers coefficient error by 82% relative to SINDy.
DeepONet models system discrepancies with low data.
problem Modeling complex systems with limited data.
method Bi-fidelity modeling using DeepONet for uncertain and partially unknown systems.
result DeepONet effectively models complex systems with parametric uncertainty and partial unknownness.
TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.
problem Real-time market prediction requires accurate predictions before a deadline.
method Filters feasible models, dispatches workers, trades accuracy for deadline risk.
result Optimized pool achieves 0.991 timely accuracy and 0.994 raw accuracy.
A method for dynamic portfolio choice with uncertain parameters using Pontryagin projection.
problem Continuous-time CRRA portfolio choice in markets with estimated and uncertain coefficients.
method Simulation-based two-stage solver (DPO + Pontryagin projection) to maximize ex-ante objective.
result Projection stabilizes learning and accurately recovers analytic decisions, improving over model-free PPO.
Despite significant effort in understanding complex systems (CS), we lack a theory for modeling, inference, analysis and efficient control of time-varying complex networks (TVCNs) in uncertain environments. From brain activity dynamics to microbiome, and even chromatin interactions within the genome architecture, many …
This work proposes a new method for simultaneous probabilistic identification and control of an observable, fully-actuated mechanical system. Identification is achieved by conditioning stochastic process priors on observations of configurations and noisy estimates of configuration derivatives. In contrast to previous w…
uMoE trains NNs with uncertain data by embedding uncertainty into training.
problem Managing aleatoric uncertainty in NN-based predictive models.
method Divide and Conquer strategy, Expert components, Gating Unit.
result uMoE outperforms baseline methods in uncertainty management.
Neural networks simplify uncertainty quantification of locally nonlinear systems.
problem Estimating statistics of responses in large-scale locally nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Decomposes response into nominal linear system and a neural network-estimated pseudoforce.
result Neural networks can efficiently estimate pseudoforce containing nonlinear and uncertain information.
Paper develops online learning-based risk-averse MPC for uncertain systems.
problem Designing robust MPC for systems with unknown but inferable stochastic disturbances.
method Proposes a novel online learning framework using CVaR constraints and Dirichlet process mixture models.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and adaptability of MPC in handling time-varying disturbance distributions.