A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper formalizes anti-discrimination law in automated systems.
The paper highlights legal misunderstandings in ML fairness definitions.
Procedure for determining less discriminatory alternatives in AI audits with limited resources.
Study tests UK FTSE-listed companies' financial data for Benford's Law conformity.
We present the data on wealth and income distributions in the United Kingdom, as well as on the income distributions in the individual states of the USA. In all of these data, we find that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, whereas the high-end tail follows a power law. The di…
A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns, city-size distributions (e.g., Paris in France and London in the UK), in material f…
In this note we describe the application of existing smart contract technologies with the aim to construct a new digital representation of a financial derivative contract. We compare several existing DLT based technologies. We provide a detailed description of two separate prototypes which are able to be executed on a …
In this paper, we investigate the capability of the universal Kriging (UK) model for single-objective global optimization applied within an efficient global optimization (EGO) framework. We implemented this combined UK-EGO framework and studied four variants of the UK methods, that is, a UK with a first-order polynomia…
In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real…
Study data biases to predict algorithmic discrimination, developing a Data Bias Profile.
UK hosts 62.89% of all HYIPs, many registered as 'limited company'.
The evolution of personal income distribution (PID) in four countries: Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the USA follows a unique trajectory. We have revealed precise match in the shape of two age-dependent features of the PID: mean income and the portion of people with the highest incomes (2 to 5% of the working age po…
This paper studies business cycle patterns in UK sectoral output. It analyzes the distinction between white noise processes and their non-white noise counterparts in the frequency domain and further examines the associated features and patterns for the process where white noise conditions are violated. The characterist…
Locational Marginal Pricing aims to free UK power markets.
UK universities pension scheme valuation study shows high dependence on gilt yields.
Paper introduces PHI to identify structurally distinct payment patterns in UK municipal procurement.
Proposes a new method for fairness in machine learning with multiple protected attributes.
Study improves prediction of UK road accidents' severity using AI.
New method interprets deep embeddings for diabetes patient clustering.
Study develops a dynamic risk model for COVID-19 mortality using UK Biobank data.
We discuss the distribution of commuting distances and its relation to income. Using data from Denmark, the UK, and the US, we show that the commuting distance is (i) broadly distributed with a slow decaying tail that can be fitted by a power law with exponent and (ii) an average growing slowly as a power …
This paper proposes non-stationary factor models for financial stress in the UK.
Study evaluates UK CDC schemes, finding intergenerational cross-subsidies in flat-accrual schemes and dynamic-accrual schemes can reduce but not eliminate them.
In an analysis of the US, the UK, and the German stock market we find a change in the behavior based on the stock's beta values. Before 2006 risky trades were concentrated on stocks in the IT and technology sector. Afterwards risky trading takes place for stocks from the financial sector. We show that an agent-based mo…
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
Stochastic encoding improves gender classification of brain networks from UK Biobank data.
Key to the imposition of appropriate minimum capital requirements on a daily basis requires accurate volatility estimation. Here, measures are presented based on discrete estimation of aggregated high frequency UK futures realisations underpinned by a continuous time framework. Squared and absolute returns are incorpor…
Research quantifies financial exclusion risks in UK, focusing on cash infrastructure and socio-economic factors.
Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
Study evaluates valuation models for UK companies using case studies.
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
Machine learning improves economic forecasting during the pandemic.
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being used for constructing disease risk prediction models. Feature engineering in EHR data however is challenging due to their highly dimensional and heterogeneous nature. Low-dimensional representations of EHR data can potentially mitigate these challenges. In this pap…
We indicate a C-Fuchsian counter-example to the result with the above title announced at http://www.maths.dur.ac.uk/events/Meetings/LMS/2011/GAL11/program.pdf and prove a stronger statement.
This paper examines quantile dependence between international stock markets and evaluates its use for improving volatility forecasting. First, we analyze quantile dependence and directional predictability between the US stock market and stock markets in the UK, Germany, France and Japan. We use the cross-quantilogram, …
Paper uses UKS to improve BLE RSSI for proximity inference in mobile phone apps.
Two sets of high quality income data are analysed in detail, one set from the UK, one from the USA. It is firstly demonstrated that both a log-normal distribution and a Boltzmann distribution can give very accurate fits to both these data sets. The absence of a power tail in the US data set is then discussed. Taken in …
We extend the exploration regarding dynamical approach of macroeconomic variables by tackling systematically expenditure using Statistical Physics models (for the first time to the best of our knowledge). Also, using polynomial distribution which characterizes the behavior of dynamical systems in certain situations, we…
Empirical study on long-term discount rates using historical bond prices.
Study examines UK firms' financial performance linked to corporate governance.
Value at risk (VaR) is a risk measure that has been widely implemented by financial institutions. This paper measures the correlation among asset price changes implied from VaR calculation. Empirical results using US and UK equity indexes show that implied correlation is not constant but tends to be higher for events i…
New methods improve genetic studies of complex diseases.
Maintaining good cardiac function for as long as possible is a major concern for healthcare systems worldwide and there is much interest in learning more about the impact of different risk factors on cardiac health. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of systolic blood pressure (SBP) on cardiac function whil…
Gringotts Wizarding Bank is well known as the only financial institution in all of the Wizarding UK as documented in the works recounting the heroics of Harry Potter. The concentration of power and wealth in this single bank needs to be weighed against the financial stability of the entire Wizarding economy. This study…
Predictive models learned from historical data are widely used to help companies and organizations make decisions. However, they may digitally unfairly treat unwanted groups, raising concerns about fairness and discrimination. In this paper, we study the fairness-aware ranking problem which aims to discover discriminat…
We propose a method based on deep learning to perform cardiac segmentation on short axis MRI image stacks iteratively from the top slice (around the base) to the bottom slice (around the apex). At each iteration, a novel variant of U-net is applied to propagate the segmentation of a slice to the adjacent slice below it…