Bayesian realized-GARCH models forecast financial tail risks using two-sided Weibull distribution.
problem Forecasting financial tail risks in volatile markets.
method Adaptive Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo for estimation and forecasting, incorporating sub-sampled realized range and variance.
result Realized-GARCH models with two-sided Weibull distribution outperform other models in tail risk forecasting.
Improved concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull variables enhance statistical and machine learning applications.
problem Improving concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables.
method Developed new concentration inequalities for sums of independent sub-Weibull random variables, including a new sub-Weibull parameter.
result New concentration inequalities with sharper constants and a mixture of sub-Gaussian and sub-Weibull tails.
A new logit model derived from the Weibull manifold.
problem No potential function on the Weibull manifold.
method Extracted a logit model from the two-parameter Weibull model.
result Found a completely integrable Hamiltonian gradient system on the logit model.
The paper proposes a neural network model for estimating conditional mixture Weibull distributions with right-censored data.
problem Survival analysis with right-censored data in predictive maintenance and health fields.
method A neural network architecture is developed to estimate two-parameter Weibull distributions conditionally to features, extending to a finite mixture of Weibull distributions.
result The model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets and can consider any survival time horizon.
WHAI combines autoencoding and MCMC for scalable topic modeling.
problem Training scalable deep topic models for big corpora.
method Develops a hybrid autoencoding inference network for deep latent Dirichlet allocation.
result WHAI achieves both scalability and speed in topic inference.
AFTNet uses a network-constrained Weibull model for biomarker discovery.
problem Discovering biomarkers from survival data with correlated predictors.
method Survival analysis method based on Weibull AFT model, incorporating network constraints and penalized likelihood for variable selection.
result Theoretical consistency and efficient algorithm for AFTNet estimator validated on synthetic and real data.
Weibull weight-scale parameter λ evolves during AdamW training, with alignment, injection, and decay forces driving its growth and relaxation.
problem Understanding the evolution of the Weibull weight-scale parameter λ during AdamW training. method Deriving a leading-order three-force decomposition of the squared weight norm from AdamW updates.
result The alignment force dominates the rise phase, contributing 88-94% of the absolute force budget across four random seeds.
WTNN models survival with neural networks for maintenance data.
problem Modeling survival with limited proxy data and censored observations.
method WTNN integrates neural networks with Weibull distribution for time-dependent covariates.
result WTNN produces robust survival predictions improving on existing methods.
Efficiently estimates covariance for sub-Weibull vectors with sub-Gaussian rate.
problem Outliers in high-dimensional covariance estimation.
method Cross-Fitted Norm-Truncated Estimator for Sub-Weibull distributions.
result Achieves optimal sub-Gaussian rate with O(Nd2) operations. New concentration inequalities for tensors with heavy-tailed coefficients.
problem Developing bounds for Euclidean functions of tensors with sub-Weibull distributions.
method Extending concentration inequalities to sub-Weibull random tensors, using new inequalities for heavy-tailed random variables and martingale analysis.
result Established a phase transition between sub-gaussian and heavy-tailed regimes for Euclidean functions of tensors.
Weibull framework diagnoses transformer weight distributions, revealing distinct patterns across modules.
problem Diagnosing weight distributions in transformer models for better understanding of training dynamics.
method Applied Weibull distribution to diagnose weight magnitude distributions in transformer models, fitting each weight matrix independently.
result Distinct patterns of weight distributions across different transformer modules were identified.
In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely, a distribution derived from the so-called Mittag-Lef…
We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well ap…
Paper proposes MMW distribution for better financial risk modeling.
problem Modeling non-normal stock returns for risk estimation.
method Mixture of mirrored Weibull (MMW) distribution for flexible risk modeling.
result MMW model outperforms Gaussian and t-mixture models in VaR estimation.
Estimates change points in Weibull time series with copulas.
problem Change-point estimation for nonlinear Weibull time series with copula-based Markov models.
method Copula-based Markov chain model with Weibull marginal distributions, incorporating asymmetric dependence structures through Clayton and Joe copulas.
result Proposed method performs well in estimating change points and model parameters, demonstrated through extensive numerical studies and empirical application.
Study on hidden units in finite Bayesian neural networks and their tail properties.
problem Understanding the behavior of hidden units in finite Bayesian neural networks.
method Introduced a generalized Weibull-tail property to describe hidden units tails.
result Unit priors become heavier-tailed going deeper, providing insights into finite Bayesian neural networks.
Develops scalable autoencoder for document networks.
problem Sparse and skewed latent node representations in document relational networks.
method Combines graph Poisson factor analysis with Weibull-based graph inference networks.
result Extracts high-quality hierarchical latent document representations.
Proposes a new IPW-based ranking metric for two-sided markets.
problem Addressing bias in implicit user feedback in two-sided markets.
method Extends IPW estimator to two-sided markets, addressing position bias.
result Proposed estimator is unbiased for ground-truth ranking metric.
Unified framework for constructing nonconvex sparse recovery methods.
problem Constructing valid nonconvex regularization functions remains open.
method Unified framework based on probability density function, using Weibull distribution.
result New nonconvex sparse recovery method based on Weibull distribution.
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade dur…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their natural multivariate generalizations, we give exact formulas for the tails and for the moments and cumulants of the distribution of returns o…
Develops a flexible deep autoencoding topic model with scalable hybrid Bayesian inference.
problem Flexible and interpretable document analysis models.
method DATM with hybrid Bayesian inference, including topic-layer-adaptive stochastic gradient Riemannian MCMC and Weibull variational encoder.
result Demonstrates scalability and efficacy on big corpora in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
We establish two-sided bounds for the complexity of two infinite series of closed orientable 3-dimensional hyperbolic manifolds, the Lobell manifolds and the Fibonacci manifolds.
Algorithm identifies optimal stable matching in uncertain two-sided markets.
problem Sequential learning in two-sided markets with unknown preferences.
method Pure exploration approach with elimination-based algorithms exploiting partial preference information.
result Identification of pervasive stable matching for optimal stable matching identification.
Paper analyzes convergence of stochastic methods under heavy-tailed noise.
problem Analyzing convergence of stochastic methods under heavy-tailed noise.
method Investigates vanilla and clipped stochastic subgradient descent methods.
result Demonstrates convergence properties under sub-Weibull and p-BCM noise assumptions.
We define a notion of Hempel distance for one-sided Heegaard splittings and show that the existence of alternate surfaces restricts distance for one-sided splittings in a manner similar to Hartshorn's and Scharlemann-Tomova's results for two-sided splittings. We also show that every geometrically compressible one-sided…
TabSurv adapts tabular neural networks for survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis on tabular data using deep learning methods.
method Adapts modern tabular architectures to survival analysis using Weibull distribution or non-parametric prediction. Optimizes SurvHL histogram loss function.
result TabSurv consistently outperforms classical and deep learning baselines on 10 real-world survival datasets.
The study examines stable minimal hypersurfaces in higher dimensions.
problem Characterizing stable minimal hypersurfaces in Rn+1. method Analyzing volume growth and stability conditions.
result Conditions for complete two-sided δ-stable minimal hypersurfaces to be the hyperplane. VAE enhances NMF for probabilistic non-negative matrix factorisation.
problem Non-negative matrix factorisation with probabilistic coefficients.
method Design a VAE network with non-negative weights and non-negative Weibull distribution.
result Effective probabilistic NMF for generating new data and linking latent and input variables.
Paper develops new inequalities for high-dimensional statistics under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
problem High-dimensional statistical methods under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
method Develops new concentration inequalities for sums of independent random variables under sub-Weibull tail assumptions.
result Concentration inequalities match asymptotics of central limit theorem and match sub-Gaussian tail behavior.
Discuss folklore statements about manifolds with curvature bounds.
problem Distance functions in manifolds with curvature bounds.
method Regularity, subsets of positive reach, and cut locus.
result Folklore statements about manifolds with curvature bounds are discussed.
Deep Evidence Regression improves credit risk prediction uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in credit risk predictions.
method Applying Deep Evidence Regression to credit risk settings.
result Demonstrated improved prediction of Loss Given Default.
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer exact formulas for the tails of the distribution P(S) of returns S of a port…
Unified analysis of perturbation-based strategies in stochastic and adversarial bandit problems.
problem Optimality of perturbation-based strategies in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Unified regret analysis for stochastic and adversarial settings, using perturbations of sub-Weibull and bounded support.
result Unified bounds for perturbations in both stochastic and adversarial settings, with optimal perturbations of Frechet-type.
New framework controls generalization for heavy-tailed data in RLHF and SGLD.
problem Heavy-tailed data in modern learning pipelines.
method Tail-dependent information-theoretic framework for sub-Weibull data.
result Sharp generalization bounds for heavy-tailed data.
Proposes a method for two-sided clustering of co-occurrence data.
problem Efficient clustering of co-occurrence data in multi-view settings.
method Information-theoretic multi-view co-clustering (MV-ITCC).
result Demonstrates superior performance on text and image datasets.
Proposes a framework for fairness in two-sided marketplaces.
problem Achieving fairness in two-sided marketplaces.
method Developed an end-to-end framework for fairness constraints from both sides of the marketplace, including dynamic aspects.
result Efficacy of the proposed framework demonstrated through simulations.
Research shows franchised fast food companies' stock prices decline more during recessions.
problem Impact of recession on franchised fast food companies' stock prices.
method Analyzed stock price data with Weibull distribution.
result Recessions have a more severe impact on franchised fast food companies' stock prices.
New heat kernel bounds on manifolds with non-negative Ricci curvature.
problem Establishing new two-sided Gaussian bounds for heat kernels on manifolds.
method Using the non-negative Ricci curvature condition, derive new bounds for the heat kernel.
result Improved two-sided Gaussian bounds for the heat kernel on manifolds with non-negative Ricci curvature.
A new framework uses multi-agent reinforcement learning for evaluating policies in two-sided markets.
problem Evaluating the effects of different policies in two-sided markets with spatial and temporal interference.
method Introduces a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework to address policy evaluation challenges in large-scale fleet management.
result Proposes novel estimators for mean outcomes under different products that are consistent despite high-dimensionality.
We obtain a finite generating set for the level 2 twist subgroup of the mapping class group of a closed non-orientable surface. The generating set consists of crosscap pushing maps along non-separating two-sided simple loops and squares of Dehn twists along non-separating two-sided simple closed curves. We also prove t…
Study uses RL to optimize crypto portfolios with two-sided transactions and lending.
problem Managing downside risk and capital optimization in high-risk crypto markets.
method Integrates RL with a new environmental formulation and PnL-based reward function, using SAC agent with CNN-MHA.
result Significantly outperforms benchmarks, especially in high-volatility scenarios.
A new algorithm for competing agents in a two-sided market setting.
problem Decentralized competition between agents in a two-sided market with unknown valuations.
method UCB-D3 algorithm for UCB with Decentralized Dominant-arm Deletion.
result UCB-D3 is order optimal and achieves a new regret lower bound.
A method for rank verification in multivariate Gaussian data, improving on existing approaches.
problem Determining the top K means in multivariate Gaussian data with any covariance structure. method Selective inference tools to generalize the two-sided difference-of-means test for any K and covariance structure. result The method provides a generalization for rank verification in multivariate Gaussian data with any covariance structure.
Perimeter minimizers in curved spaces have a singular set no more than 5 dimensions.
problem Understanding the structure of minimizers in spaces with bounded Ricci curvature.
method Analysis of non-collapsed Ricci limit spaces with two-sided curvature bounds.
result The Hausdorff dimension of the singular set is at most \(N-5\).
Sharp bound on singular set dimension for specific geometric problems.
problem Hausdorff dimension of singular set in free boundary problems.
method Analysis of noncollapsed limits of manifolds with Ricci curvature bounds.
result Dimension bound of singular set is n−5. This paper optimizes search experiences in two-sided marketplaces by balancing multiple conflicting metrics.
problem Balancing conflicting business metrics in two-sided marketplaces like eBay and Etsy.
method Joint optimization of market-level metrics using Evolutionary Strategies.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the proposed method on Etsy data.