In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding bound is an immediate consequence of the theory. Moreover, we propose a rigorous and…
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48 results for “Truncated probability”
New method for constructing truncated vine copulas.
problem High-dimensional parameter space in vine copulas.
method Propose a new score and algorithm for constructing truncated vines.
result New algorithms exploit conditional independences.
Truncated densities are probability density functions defined on truncated domains. They share the same parametric form with their non-truncated counterparts up to a normalizing constant. Since the computation of their normalizing constants is usually infeasible, Maximum Likelihood Estimation cannot be easily applied t…
Estimates inverse temperature of Ising models with a single sample.
problem Estimating inverse temperature in truncated Ising models with hard constraints.
method Maximizing pseudolikelihood to estimate the inverse temperature.
result An estimator that is nearly time and -consistent.
Systems with Correlations in the Variance: Generating Power-Law Tails in Probability Distributionscond-mat.stat-mech
We study how the presence of correlations in physical variables contributes to the form of probability distributions. We investigate a process with correlations in the variance generated by (i) a Gaussian or (ii) a truncated Lévy distribution. For both (i) and (ii), we find that due to the correlations in the variance,…
Study proves convergence of interest rate model approximations.
problem Investigating convergence of stochastic interest rate models.
method Developed analytical tools for true and truncated EM solutions, proving convergence in probability.
result True solution converges in probability to truncated EM solution as step size approaches zero.
We propose a new framework for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) on truncated probability distributions with smooth underlying density functions. Traditional HMC requires computing the gradient of potential function associated with the target distribution, and therefore does not perform its full power on truncated distribu…
Unified framework for mean testing under truncation bias.
problem High-dimensional mean testing under arbitrary truncation.
method Characterizes fundamental limits and develops a simple second-order test.
result Unified framework connects finite-moment, sub-Gaussian, and median-regular structural regimes.
Scale-invariant Truncated Lévy Processcond-mat.stat-mech
We develop a scale-invariant truncated Lévy (STL) process to describe physical systems characterized by correlated stochastic variables. The STL process exhibits Lévy stability for the probability density, and hence shows scaling properties (as observed in empirical data); it has the advantage that all moments are fini…
Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firmscond-mat.stat-mech
Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…
SeqRF straightens generative model flows to speed up sampling.
problem High global truncation error in ODE-based solvers for generative models.
method SeqRF, a learning technique that straightens the probability flow.
result Significantly improved sampling speed and synthesis quality.
In this paper, an issue of building the RRC model using probability distributions other than beta distribution is addressed. More precisely, in this paper, we propose to build the RRR model using the truncated normal distribution. Heuristic procedures for expected value and the variance of the truncated-normal distribu…
Optimality of TS with noninformative priors proven for Pareto model.
problem Optimality of Thompson Sampling with noninformative priors for Pareto bandits.
method Proved optimality of TS with certain probability matching priors, showed suboptimality with others, and found effectiveness of truncation procedures.
result TS with certain probability matching priors achieves optimal regret bound for Pareto model.
Paper proposes robust methods for estimating optimal treatment rules with censored survival data.
problem Estimating optimal treatment rules for censored survival data.
method Developed two robust criteria and a sampling-based difference-of-convex algorithm for learning optimal treatment rules.
result Proposed methods show improved performance compared to existing methods in simulations and real data.
Heteroskedastic Levy Flightscond-mat.stat-mech
Truncated Lévy flights are random walks in which the arbitrarily large steps of a Lévy flight are eliminated. Since this makes the variance finite, the central limit theorem applies, and as time increases the probability distribution of the increments becomes Gaussian. Here, truncated Lévy flights with correlated fluct…
Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM) addresses the likelihood trap in LLMs by reshaping the probability distribution before truncation.
problem LLMs fall into the likelihood trap, leading to repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness.
method VCM reshapes the probability distribution before truncation through Contextual Searchlight and Adaptive Self-Debiasing.
result VCM mitigates the likelihood trap across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning.
This paper presents a new algorithm, termed \emph{truncated amplitude flow} (TAF), to recover an unknown vector from a system of quadratic equations of the form , where 's are given random measurement vectors. This problem is known to be \emph{NP-hard} in genera…
In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
The paper improves PAC-Bayes bounds for losses with finite moments.
problem Bounding generalization for losses with heavy tails and finite moments.
method Truncation method and PAC-Bayes bounds for unbounded losses with heavy tails and bounded variance.
result Bounds interpolate between slow and fast rates depending on the moment.
The Truncation Blind Spot: How Decoding Strategies Systematically Exclude Human-Like Token Choicescs.CL
Decoding strategies often exclude human-like tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.
problem Decoding strategies exclude contextually appropriate but statistically rare tokens, creating a detectable gap in generated text.
method Analysis of 1.8 million texts across 8 language models, 5 decoding strategies, and 53 hyperparameter configurations.
result 8-18% of human-selected tokens fall outside typical truncation boundaries, indicating a detectable gap.
Improves FI-PINNs by combining re-sampling and subset simulation for better failure probability estimation.
problem Estimating failure probability in physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
method Adaptive sampling with re-sampling and subset simulation, using cosine-annealing for uniform to adaptive transition.
result Significant improvement in estimating failure probability and generating new training points in the failure region.
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "d…
Modeling of Financial Data: Comparison of the Truncated Lévy Flight and the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) processescond-mat.stat-mech
We compare our results on empirical analysis of financial data with simulations of two stochastic models of the dynamics of stock market prices. The two models are (i) the truncated Lévy flight recently introduced by us and (ii) the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) processes. We find that the TLF well describes the scaling and i…
New method improves sampling from logconcave distributions truncated on polytopes.
problem Sampling from logconcave distributions with polytope constraints.
method Regularized Dikin walks, using Lewis weights.
result Improved mixing time guarantees for various distributions and polytopes.
The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…
The development of global sensitivity analysis of numerical model outputs has recently raised new issues on 1-dimensional Poincaré inequalities. Typically two kind of sensitivity indices are linked by a Poincaré type inequality, which provide upper bounds of the most interpretable index by using the other one, cheaper …
Efficiently estimate Boolean product distribution parameters from truncated samples.
problem Estimating parameters of Boolean product distributions from truncated samples.
method Introducing fatness of truncation set, using membership queries, and adapting Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result Efficiently learn Boolean product distributions from truncated samples with small sample complexity.
In the paper "On Truncated Variation of Brownian Motion with Drift" (Bull. Pol. Acad. Sci. Math. 56 (2008), no.4, 267 - 281) we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, where is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation by neglect…
We show that given an estimate that is close to a general high-rank positive semi-definite (PSD) matrix in spectral norm (i.e., ), the simple truncated SVD of produces a multiplicative approximation of in Frobenius norm. This observation leads to many inte…
New method estimates treatment effects over time for survival data, improving accuracy and smoothness.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time for survival data with left truncation and right censoring.
method surv-iTMLE, a targeted learning procedure for estimating conditional survival probabilities.
result surv-iTMLE outperforms existing methods in bias and smoothness of time-varying effect estimates.
We derive concentration inequalities for differentially private median and mean estimators building on the "Propose, Test, Release" (PTR) mechanism introduced by Dwork and Lei (2009). We introduce a new general version of the PTR mechanism that allows us to derive high probability error bounds for differentially privat…
Motivated by a recent result of Daskalakis et al. 2018, we analyze the population version of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the case of \textit{truncated} mixtures of two Gaussians. Truncated samples from a -dimensional mixture of two Gaussians $\frac{1}{2} \mathcal{N}(\vecμ, \vecΣ)+ \frac{1}{2} \mathca…
Unified method for calculating financial option prices from characteristic functions.
problem Calculating financial option prices from characteristic functions in high dimensions.
method Damped Fourier-cosine expansion (COS) method.
result The method converges exponentially if the characteristic function decays exponentially.
Fast algorithms for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation with optimal sample complexitycs.DS
Optimal algorithm learns Gaussian under halfspace truncation with minimal samples.
problem Learning a Gaussian distribution truncated to an unknown halfspace.
method Efficient algorithm using samples and runtime dominated by empirical covariance matrix computation.
result Optimal sample and time complexity bounds for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation.
Efficiently estimates covariance for sub-Weibull vectors with sub-Gaussian rate.
problem Outliers in high-dimensional covariance estimation.
method Cross-Fitted Norm-Truncated Estimator for Sub-Weibull distributions.
result Achieves optimal sub-Gaussian rate with operations.
Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) minimizes the Euclidean distance between the data matrix and its low rank approximation, and it fails when applied to corrupted data because the loss function is sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose a Truncated CauchyNMF loss that handle outliers by truncating large e…
New method bounds stochastic subgradient methods with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Bounding stochastic subgradient methods under heavy-tailed noise.
method Clipped version of projected stochastic subgradient method.
result Near optimal any-time and finite horizon bounds for averaging schemes.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
problem Biased estimates of log marginal likelihood in latent variable models.
method Randomized truncation of infinite series for unbiased estimation.
result Models trained with SUMO give better test-set likelihoods than standard methods.
Paper proposes approximate Stein classes for efficient truncated density estimation.
problem Difficulties in estimating truncated density models due to intractable normalising constants and boundary conditions.
method Adapts score matching to solve the problem, introduces approximate Stein classes and a novel discrepancy measure, TKSD.
result TKSD does not require a fixed weighting function and can be evaluated using only boundary samples, leading to improved accuracy.
Paper defines new risk measures for elliptical distributions.
problem Risk measurement for elliptical distributions.
method DTM, DTS, DTK definitions and formula derivation for specific distributions.
result Explicit formulas for DTE, DTV, DTS, and DTK for various distributions.
The study provides a sample complexity estimate for multi-category classifiers with bounded variation.
problem Controlling the deviation between empirical and generalization performances of multi-category classifiers.
method Using the empirical L1-norm covering number and fat-shattering dimension, the study derives a sample size estimate for classifiers of bounded variation.
result The sample size estimate is sufficient for the performances to be close with high probability, improving the dependency on the number of classes.
We develop a unified approach for classification and regression support vector machines for data subject to right censoring. We provide finite sample bounds on the generalization error of the algorithm, prove risk consistency for a wide class of probability measures, and study the associated learning rates. We apply th…
Improved regret bounds for adversarial linear contextual bandits.
problem Adversarial linear contextual bandits with changing loss functions.
method Truncated continuous exponential weights algorithm over the probability simplex, analyzing with linear bandit setting without contexts.
result Second-order bound of and first-order bound of .
New DP framework using data truncation for efficient estimation.
problem Differential privacy in unbounded data support.
method Data truncation, exponential family distributions, maximum likelihood estimation, DP stochastic gradient descent.
result Near-optimal sample complexity for Gaussian mean and covariance estimation.
This article reviews and explains HMC-based methods for sampling constrained continuous distributions.
problem Sampling from continuous distributions with constraints.
method HMC and related methods for constrained sampling.
result HMC and related methods are more efficient for constrained sampling.
We compare the CPU effort and pricing biases of seven Fourier-based implementations. Our analyses show that truncation and discretization errors significantly increase as we move away from the Black-Scholes-Merton framework. We rank the speed and accuracy of the competing choices, showing which methods require smaller …
Score matching method improves density estimation for truncated data on manifolds.
problem Density estimation for truncated data on manifolds with intractable normalising constant.
method Truncated score matching extended to Riemannian manifolds with boundary.
result Score matching estimator approximates true parameter values with low error.
Truncated backpropagation through time (TBPTT) is a popular method for learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that saves computation and memory at the cost of bias by truncating backpropagation after a fixed number of lags. In practice, choosing the optimal truncation length is difficult: TBPTT will not converge …