arXiv research

New method estimates volatility for processes with jumps of unbounded variation.

New method estimates tempered stable Lévy models with high accuracy.

New method estimates volatility for Lévy processes with unbounded jumps efficiently.

We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…

In the paper "On Truncated Variation of Brownian Motion with Drift" (Bull. Pol. Acad. Sci. Math. 56 (2008), no.4, 267 - 281) we defined truncated variation of Brownian motion with drift, $W_t = B_t + μt, t\geq 0,$ where $(B_t)$ is a standard Brownian motion. Truncated variation differs from regular variation by neglect…

We consider the pricing of derivatives written on the discretely sampled realized variance of an underlying security. In the literature, the realized variance is usually approximated by its continuous-time limit, the quadratic variation of the underlying log-price. Here, we characterize the small-time limits of options…

Combines variational and evolutionary optimization for generative models.

We propose a new method of measuring the third and fourth moments of return distribution based on quadratic variation method when the return process is assumed to have zero drift. The realized third and fourth moments variations computed from high frequency return series are good approximations to corresponding actual …

We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …

We derive a novel variational expectation maximization approach based on truncated posterior distributions. Truncated distributions are proportional to exact posteriors within subsets of a discrete state space and equal zero otherwise. The treatment of the distributions' subsets as variational parameters distinguishes …

This paper introduces a method to incorporate risk sensitivity in RL using quadratic variation penalties.

In this work, we develop a novel principal component analysis (PCA) for semimartingales by introducing a suitable spectral analysis for the quadratic variation operator. Motivated by high-dimensional complex systems typically found in interest rate markets, we investigate correlation in high-dimensional high-frequency …

Realized statistics based on high frequency returns have become very popular in financial economics. In recent years, different non-parametric estimators of the variation of a log-price process have appeared. These were developed by many authors and were motivated by the existence of complete records of price data. Amo…

We study inference and learning based on a sparse coding model with `spike-and-slab' prior. As in standard sparse coding, the model used assumes independent latent sources that linearly combine to generate data points. However, instead of using a standard sparse prior such as a Laplace distribution, we study the applic…

Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMM) are a cornerstone of Bayesian non-parametrics. While these models free from choosing the number of components a-priori, computationally attractive variational inference often reintroduces the need to do so, via a truncation on the variational distribution. In this paper we presen…

A new method for multi-objective Bayesian optimization using entropy search and variational lower bound maximization.

Optimal algorithm learns Gaussian under halfspace truncation with minimal samples.

CATVI improves variational inference for Bayesian nonparametric models by reducing divergence and improving prediction accuracy.

UDN adapts depth to data complexity, outperforming standard neural networks.

Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.

The third moment variation of a financial asset return process is defined by the quadratic covariation between the return and square return processes. The skew and fat tail risk of an underlying asset can be hedged using a third moment variation swap under which a predetermined fixed leg and the floating leg of the rea…

We consider the problem of numerical approximation for forward-backward stochastic differential equations with drivers of quadratic growth (qgFBSDE). To illustrate the significance of qgFBSDE, we discuss a problem of cross hedging of an insurance related financial derivative using correlated assets. For the convergence…

The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.

A streaming algorithm estimates quadratic covariation from financial data efficiently.

A novel approach termed \emph{stochastic truncated amplitude flow} (STAF) is developed to reconstruct an unknown $n$-dimensional real-/complex-valued signal $\bm{x}$ from $m$ `phaseless' quadratic equations of the form $ψ_i=|\langle\bm{a}_i,\bm{x}\rangle|$. This problem, also known as phase retrieval from magnitude-onl…

In the context of the Dragulescu-Yakovenko (2000) model, we show that empirical income distribution with truncated datasets, cannot be properly modeled by the one-parameter exponential distribution. However, a truncated version characterized by an exponential distribution with two parameters gives an accurate fit.

The Hirzebruch signature formula provides an obstruction to the following realization question: given a rational Poincaré duality algebra $\mathcal{A}$, does there exist a smooth manifold $M$ such that $H^*(M;\mathbb{Q})=\mathcal{A}$? This problem is especially interesting for rational truncated polynomial algebras who…

We accelerate CNF by reducing ODE truncation errors with polynomial regularization.

We provide an efficient algorithm for the classical problem, going back to Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, of estimating, with arbitrary accuracy the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution from truncated samples. Truncated samples from a $d$-variate normal ${\cal N}(\mathbfμ,\mathbfΣ)$ means a samples is only re…

This paper presents a new algorithm, termed \emph{truncated amplitude flow} (TAF), to recover an unknown vector $\bm{x}$ from a system of quadratic equations of the form $y_i=|\langle\bm{a}_i,\bm{x}\rangle|^2$, where $\bm{a}_i$'s are given random measurement vectors. This problem is known to be \emph{NP-hard} in genera…

Efficiently estimate Boolean product distribution parameters from truncated samples.

Proposes a new method to estimate Bayesian neural network depth.

Key to the imposition of appropriate minimum capital requirements on a daily basis requires accurate volatility estimation. Here, measures are presented based on discrete estimation of aggregated high frequency UK futures realisations underpinned by a continuous time framework. Squared and absolute returns are incorpor…

Using Vovk's outer measure, which corresponds to a minimal superhedging price, the existence of quadratic variation is shown for "typical price paths" in the space of càdlàg functions possessing a mild restriction on the jumps directed downwards. In particular, this result includes the existence of quadratic variation …

We give a microscopic representation of the stock-market in which the microscopic agents are the individual traders and their capital. Their basic dynamics consists in the auto-catalysis of the individual capital and in the global competition/cooperation between the agents mediated by the total wealth invested in the s…

We show that $k$-means (Lloyd's algorithm) is obtained as a special case when truncated variational EM approximations are applied to Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with isotropic Gaussians. In contrast to the standard way to relate $k$-means and GMMs, the provided derivation shows that it is not required to consider Gau…

Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favor the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model is reported to be able to capture the volatility skew evolution better than the Heston model. In this …

Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…

Completely random measures (CRM) represent the key building block of a wide variety of popular stochastic models and play a pivotal role in modern Bayesian Nonparametrics. A popular representation of CRMs as a random series with decreasing jumps is due to Ferguson and Klass (1972). This can immediately be turned into a…

This paper aims at refined error analysis for binary classification using support vector machine (SVM) with Gaussian kernel and convex loss. Our first result shows that for some loss functions such as the truncated quadratic loss and quadratic loss, SVM with Gaussian kernel can reach the almost optimal learning rate, p…

In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims paying off at maturity a joint function of the underlying and its realised volatilit…

A criterion is given for cutting out disks with ribbons from a Möbius strip.

Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.

BBVI with STL converges geometrically under perfect specification, with quadratic variance bound.

Classifies extended Abelian Chern-Simons theories using quadratic modules.

This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.

Study connects curvature to graph theory and reveals differences.

We prove that the model-free typical (in the sense of Vovk) càdlàg price paths with mildly restricted downward jumps possess quadratic variation which does not depend on the specific sequence of partitions as long as these partitions are obtained from stopping times such that the oscillations of a path on the consecuti…