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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

119237356474 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Trend analysis

HybridCGAN improves portfolio analysis by balancing trend prediction and market uncertainty.

problem Markowitz framework's overemphasis on market uncertainty and trend prediction.
method A hybrid approach combining deep generative models to balance trend prediction and market uncertainty.
result HybridCGAN leads to better portfolio allocation compared to existing methods.

Microstructure of market dynamics is studied through analysis of tick price data. Linear trend is introduced as a tool for such analysis. Trend arbitrage inequality is developed and tested. The inequality sets limiting relationship between trend, bid-ask spread, market reaction and average update frequency of price inf…

2006-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Study refines trend-following strategy to improve adaptability.

problem Challenges in practical implementation of historical trend-following strategies.
method Modifications to historical strategy, including T-bills exclusion, alternative allocations, industry exclusions, momentum signals, and Walk-Forward Analysis.
result Persistent challenges in adapting historical strategies to modern markets.

Transformer model predicts stock trends using technical data and sentiment analysis.

problem Lack of accurate long-term stock trend prediction using traditional models.
method Developed a Transformer-based model integrating technical stock data and sentiment analysis.
result Transformer model shows significant improvement in directional accuracy over RNNs, especially for longer sequence lengths.

We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving A…

2008-04-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Study measures irreversibility in crypto trends using Kullback-Leibler divergence.

problem Assessing irreversibility in cryptocurrency trends.
method Defined irreversibility index using Kullback-Leibler divergence between uptrend and downtrend distributions.
result Strong irreversibility in all analyzed cryptocurrencies, with trends evolving over time.

Empirical analysis of financial market trends and reversions across various time scales.

problem Understanding trends and reversions in financial markets over different time scales.
method Analysis of 14 years of futures tick data, 30 years of daily futures prices, 330 years of monthly asset prices, and yearly financial data since medieval times.
result Markets exhibit trending and reversion regimes with different time scales, explaining trends persistence and reversions.

Enhances trading signals using image analysis and weighted moving averages.

problem Improving price trend trading strategies in financial markets.
method Image-induced importance weights applied to weighted moving averages of trading signals.
result Significant enhancement of price trend trading signals with improved portfolio selection.

In financial time series there are periods in which the value increases or decreases monotonically. We call those periods elemental trends and study the probability distribution of their duration for the indices DJIA, NASDAQ and IPC. It is found that the trend duration distribution often differs from the one expected u…

2012-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Predict stock trends using news sentiment and technical indicators in Spark.

problem Predicting the stock market trend is challenging due to multiple influencing factors.
method Created a machine learning classification problem with features from technical indicators and news sentiment scores.
result Random Forest model achieved 63.58% test accuracy in Spark.

In this paper we study the estimation of changing trends in time-series using 1\ell_1 trend filtering. This method generalizes 1D Total Variation (TV) denoising for detection of step changes in means to detecting changes in trends, and it relies on a convex optimization problem for which there are very efficient numer…

2014-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…

2015-04-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer scientists [17]. This paper gives an idea about the trend analysis of stock mar…

2013-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest develo…

2008-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

New model estimates species population trends from citizen science data.

problem Interannual confounding in citizen science data.
method Double Machine Learning framework to estimate population change and propensity scores for confounding adjustment.
result Spatially detailed trend estimates from citizen science data with low error rates.

A new Twitter sentiment model predicts stock market trends with high accuracy.

problem Real-time prediction of future stock market prices.
method Baseline correlation approach using polynomial regression, classification, and lexicon-based sentiment analysis.
result Predicts stock market trends with 67.22% accuracy, up to 15 time samples in advance.

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and avera…

2010-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.

problem Improving trend estimation in nonlinear economic time series.
method Recursive application of one-sided HP filter on updated cyclical components, combined with an incremental HP filtering algorithm.
result Better performance of SOHP filter compared to other HP-type filters on real economic data.

This paper compares LSTM, GRU, and Transformer models for stock price prediction.

problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy in fast-paced financial markets.
method Training models on Tesla stock data from 2015 to 2024, comparing LSTM, GRU, and Transformer.
result LSTM model achieved 94% accuracy in predicting stock prices.

Martingale Doppelgänger-Eval benchmarks VLMs on candlestick evidence vs. trend extrapolation

problem Auditing whether VLMs use chart evidence or trend extrapolation
method Proving formal limitations and designing controlled mechanisms
result Identifying regression coefficients for evidence vs. trend