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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Transaction History

This paper creates a comprehensive BTC transaction network dataset spanning 15 years.

problem Lack of a full-history BTC graph and network property dataset.
method Thorough analysis of BTC transaction network, creating a dataset and investigating decentralization.
result First systematic investigation of BTC's asset decentralization and design of decentralization degrees.

Neural networks improve loss reserving with case estimates and transaction data.

problem Improving loss reserving accuracy using neural networks.
method Comparison of feed-forward and recurrent neural networks trained on case estimates and transaction data.
result Case estimates significantly improve predictions, but memory-equipped neural networks offer minimal additional benefit.

Two major financial market complexities are transaction costs and uncertain volatility, and we analyze their joint impact on the problem of portfolio optimization. When volatility is constant, the transaction costs optimal investment problem has a long history, especially in the use of asymptotic approximations when th…

2014-01-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A novel method uses blockchain transaction graphs for Bitcoin price prediction.

problem Insufficient effectiveness of manually designed features for Bitcoin price prediction.
method Mining patterns from Bitcoin transactions using k-order transaction graphs and proposing a novel prediction method.
result The proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art Bitcoin price prediction methods.

The functioning of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin relies on the open availability of the entire history of its transactions. This makes it a particularly interesting socio-economic system to analyse from the point of view of network science. Here we analyse the evolution of the network of Bitcoin transactions between users…

2018-05-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new model to measure trade impact and information content in fluctuating markets.

problem Measuring price impact and information content of trades in a time-varying market setting.
method Non-linear observation-driven model for dynamically estimating market impact and information content.
result Market impact shows intraday patterns with large fluctuations, some of which are exogenous.

Study forecasts sub-city real estate prices weekly using radar and news sentiment.

problem Limited availability of reliable real estate price indicators at neighborhood and long horizons.
method Combining satellite radar signals and news sentiment to forecast sub-city real estate prices.
result The multimodal model reduces mean absolute error by 35% at long horizons (26-34 weeks).

We propose a general model explanation system (MES) for "explaining" the output of black box classifiers. This paper describes extensions to Turner (2015), which is referred to frequently in the text. We use the motivating example of a classifier trained to detect fraud in a credit card transaction history. The key asp…

2016-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses graph neural networks to predict SME default risk using transaction and ownership networks.

problem Predicting credit risk for SMEs facing limited financial histories and collateral constraints.
method Graph Neural Networks applied to multilayer network data of SME transactions and ownership.
result Combining network data with traditional data improves credit scoring and models contagion risk.

A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In contrast to financial exchanges, Blockchain based crypto-currencies expose the ent…

2018-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Semi-supervised GANs with log-signatures improve credit card fraud detection.

problem Detecting fraud in large, complex financial transaction data streams.
method Conditional GANs with Bayesian inference and log-signatures for robust feature encoding.
result Consistent improvements over benchmarks in global and domain-specific metrics.

We present a simple dynamical model for describing trading interactions between agents in a social network by considering only two dynamical variables, namely money and goods or services, that are assumed conserved over the whole time span of the agents' trading transactions. A key feature of the model is that agent-to…

2016-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Gradient boosting detects insider purchases predicting abnormal returns in microcap stocks.

problem Predicting abnormal returns in U.S. microcap stocks using insider purchase signals.
method Gradient boosting classifier trained on insider identity, transaction history, and market conditions.
result Gradient boosting classifier achieves AUC of 0.70 on out-of-sample data, with precision and recall of 0.38 and 0.69 respectively.

This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.

problem Traditional Hawkes process intensity function's parametrized kernel function biases future event predictions.
method Uses neural models to model the kernel function of Hawkes process intensity function.
result Neural models can better capture future event characteristics using past events data.

Motivated by the application of real-time pricing in e-commerce platforms, we consider the problem of revenue-maximization in a setting where the seller can leverage contextual information describing the customer's history and the product's type to predict her valuation of the product. However, her true valuation is un…

2019-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.

problem Modeling irreversible processes in systems with uncertain histories.
method A Gibbs-type measure weighted by energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, interpreted as a Bayesian posterior.
result The measure concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution.

Fused Encoder Networks improve momentum strategies on crypto data.

problem Deploying momentum strategies on crypto data with limited samples leads to over-fitted models.
method Hybrid transfer learning model combining source and target datasets.
result Fused Encoder Networks outperform classical momentum strategies and benchmarks.

HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.

problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.

TLMG4Eth combines language and graph models for Ethereum fraud detection.

problem Current fraud detection methods fail to consider semantic and similarity patterns in Ethereum transactions.
method TLMG4Eth uses a transaction language model and graph-based methods to capture semantic, similarity, and structural features.
result TLMG4Eth detects anomalies in Ethereum transactions more effectively than existing methods.

SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.

problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.

Paper analyzes history-based RL methods for MDPs, introduces a theoretical framework and practical algorithm.

problem Improving RL performance in MDPs using history-based features.
method Theoretical framework for history-based RL, practical algorithm design.
result Practical RL algorithm shows effectiveness on continuous control tasks.

In addressing the question of the time scales characteristic for the market formation, we analyze high frequency tick-by-tick data from the NYSE and from the German market. By using returns on various time scales ranging from seconds or minutes up to two days, we compare magnitude of the largest eigenvalue of the corre…

2003-11-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural networks improve cancer risk prediction from family history data.

problem Improving cancer risk prediction from family history data using machine learning.
method Developed and trained neural network models on large pedigrees to predict hereditary cancers.
result Neural networks can achieve nearly optimal prediction performance and outperform traditional models in misreported data.

The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.

problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.

Investment strategy optimized in markets with transaction costs and search delays.

problem Maximizing wealth in an illiquid market with transaction costs and search frictions.
method Characterized no-trade region and provided asymptotic expansions of value function for small transaction costs.
result The effects of transaction costs are more pronounced in illiquid markets.