arXiv research

A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure is based on median-of-means tournaments, introduced by the authors in [8]. It is …

Breaks the hardness conjecture for batch RL with a novel tournament-based approach.

Proposes a flexible tournament design combining knockout and round-robin.

Classifies intrinsically linked tournaments by their score sequences.

We explore a new way to evaluate generative models using insights from evaluation of competitive games between human players. We show experimentally that tournaments between generators and discriminators provide an effective way to evaluate generative models. We introduce two methods for summarizing tournament outcomes…

A directed graph $G$ is $\textit{intrinsically linked}$ if every embedding of that graph contains a non-split link $L$, where each component of $L$ is a consistently oriented cycle in $G$. A $\textit{tournament}$ is a directed graph where each pair of vertices is connected by exactly one directed edge. We consider intr…

Extracts StarCraft II tournament data for AI and ML studies.

Reply to Tetlock et al. on tail risk and probability gap.

This paper extends Median-of-Means to new learning problems involving pairwise comparisons.

We propose a novel ranking model that combines the Bradley-Terry-Luce probability model with a nonnegative matrix factorization framework to model and uncover the presence of latent variables that influence the performance of top tennis players. We derive an efficient, provably convergent, and numerically stable majori…

The paper tackles optimal level set estimation in crowdsourcing and tournaments.

New method estimates optimizer for convex stochastic problems.

Elo ratings learn model parameters quickly using Markov chains.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is widely used for evaluating diagnostic systems. Recent studies have shown that estimating an area under ROC curve (AUC) with standard cross-validation methods suffers from a large bias. The leave-pair-out (LPO) cross-validation has been shown to correct this bias. Howe…

The small-ball method was introduced as a way of obtaining a high probability, isomorphic lower bound on the quadratic empirical process, under weak assumptions on the indexing class. The key assumption was that class members satisfy a uniform small-ball estimate: that $Pr(|f| \geq κ\|f\|_{L_2}) \geq δ$ for given const…

Co-designing efficient machine learning based systems across the whole hardware/software stack to trade off speed, accuracy, energy and costs is becoming extremely complex and time consuming. Researchers often struggle to evaluate and compare different published works across rapidly evolving software frameworks, hetero…

We are interested in parallelizing the Least Angle Regression (LARS) algorithm for fitting linear regression models to high-dimensional data. We consider two parallel and communication avoiding versions of the basic LARS algorithm. The two algorithms have different asymptotic costs and practical performance. One offers…

New method improves stock return prediction in non-stationary markets.

New algorithms for model selection in off-policy evaluation of reinforcement learning.

Directed graphs occur throughout statistical modeling of networks, and exchangeability is a natural assumption when the ordering of vertices does not matter. There is a deep structural theory for exchangeable undirected graphs, which extends to the directed case via measurable objects known as digraphons. Using digraph…

In this paper we demonstrate how genetic algorithms can be used to reverse engineer an evaluation function's parameters for computer chess. Our results show that using an appropriate mentor, we can evolve a program that is on par with top tournament-playing chess programs, outperforming a two-time World Computer Chess …

The paper derives upper bounds on the MLE error for BTL model under general graphs.

The paper studies dynamic ranking and translation synchronization from evolving pairwise comparison graphs.

In this paper we demonstrate how genetic algorithms can be used to reverse engineer an evaluation function's parameters for computer chess. Our results show that using an appropriate expert (or mentor), we can evolve a program that is on par with top tournament-playing chess programs, outperforming a two-time World Com…

A method for dynamic ranking using BTL model and nearest neighbor rank centrality.

Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.

Recently we proposed a general, ensemble-based feature engineering wrapper (FEW) that was paired with a number of machine learning methods to solve regression problems. Here, we adapt FEW for supervised classification and perform a thorough analysis of fitness and survival methods within this framework. Our tests demon…

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) performance predictors tend to base their algorithms purely on historical statistical data. The main problems with this approach is that external factors such as injuries, managerial decisions and other tournament match statistics can never be factored into the final predictions. In this pa…

Pairwise comparison data arises in many domains, including tournament rankings, web search, and preference elicitation. Given noisy comparisons of a fixed subset of pairs of items, we study the problem of estimating the underlying comparison probabilities under the assumption of strong stochastic transitivity (SST). We…

A number of applications (e.g., AI bot tournaments, sports, peer grading, crowdsourcing) use pairwise comparison data and the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model to evaluate a given collection of items (e.g., bots, teams, students, search results). Past work has shown that under the BTL model, the widely-used maximum-likeli…

Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of par…

We consider the problem of stochastic $K$-armed dueling bandit in the contextual setting, where at each round the learner is presented with a context set of $K$ items, each represented by a $d$-dimensional feature vector, and the goal of the learner is to identify the best arm of each context sets. However, unlike the …

Recent progress in artificial intelligence through reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great success on increasingly complex single-agent environments and two-player turn-based games. However, the real-world contains multiple agents, each learning and acting independently to cooperate and compete with other agents, a…

This paper tackles bandit optimization with a new pairwise comparison oracle for unknown strongly concave functions.

Item response theory (IRT) models are widely used in psychometrics and educational measurement, being deployed in many high stakes tests such as the GRE aptitude test. IRT has largely focused on estimation of a single latent trait (e.g. ability) that remains static through the collection of item responses. However, in …

We study learning problems involving arbitrary classes of functions $F$, distributions $X$ and targets $Y$. Because proper learning procedures, i.e., procedures that are only allowed to select functions in $F$, tend to perform poorly unless the problem satisfies some additional structural property (e.g., that $F$ is co…

The need for parameter estimation with massive datasets has reinvigorated interest in stochastic optimization and iterative estimation procedures. Stochastic approximations are at the forefront of this recent development as they yield procedures that are simple, general, and fast. However, standard stochastic approxima…

We describe a procedure which verifies that a group given by generators and relators is word-hyperbolic. This procedure always works with a group which is word-hyperbolic, provided there is sufficient memory and time devoted to the problem. If the group is not word-hyperbolic, the procedure continues indefinitely. We a…

Myopic procedures are shown to be asymptotically optimal in ranking and selection problems.

Several authors have pointed out the connection between Barbilian's metric introduced in 1934 and the recent study of Apollonian metrics. We provide examples of various distances that can be obtained by Barbilian's metrization procedure and we discuss the relation between this metrization procedure and important Rieman…

Biclustering, the process of simultaneously clustering the rows and columns of a data matrix, is a popular and effective tool for finding structure in a high-dimensional dataset. Many biclustering procedures appear to work well in practice, but most do not have associated consistency guarantees. To address this shortco…

Chemical plants are complex and dynamical systems consisting of many components for manipulation and sensing, whose state transitions depend on various factors such as time, disturbance, and operation procedures. For the purpose of supporting human operators of chemical plants, we are developing an AI system that can s…

ARK improves knockoffs robustness to feature distribution misspecification.

A new procedure, called DDa-procedure, is developed to solve the problem of classifying d-dimensional objects into q >= 2 classes. The procedure is completely nonparametric; it uses q-dimensional depth plots and a very efficient algorithm for discrimination analysis in the depth space [0,1]^q. Specifically, the depth i…

Investigation of the market graph attracts a growing attention in market network analysis. One of the important problem connected with market graph is to identify it from observations. Traditional way for the market graph identification is to use a simple procedure based on statistical estimations of Pearson correlatio…

A new method calibrates forecasts without sacrificing expertise.

Procedure groups nonparametric regression curves automatically.

We model the quantities appearing in Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax guidance for calculating the health insurance premium tax credit created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare. We ask the question of whether there is a procedure, computable by hand, which can calculate the appr…